Trump's Legal Jeopardy Could 'Misguide US Midterm Elections' into Partisan Conflict Rather Than Solving Urgent Economic Problems

By Yang Sheng

Aug 14, 2022 10:30 PM

A vehicle carrying former US President Donald Trump leaves the office of the New York Attorney General in New York City on August 10, 2022. Donald Trump on Wednesday declined to answer questions under oath in New York over alleged fraud at his family business, as legal pressures pile on the former president whose house was raided by the FBI just two days ago. Photo: VCG

Former US president Donald Trump is facing serious legal jeopardy after the FBI search of his residence Mar-a-Lago in Florida found classified documents, with observers saying that as the investigation develops, it is likely to strangle the possibility that Trump can run for election again. Democrats might take a sigh of relief as they might have chance to eliminate their biggest threat in domestic politics once and for all.

But the case will misguide the Americans away from US economic problems such as inflation toward partisan struggles, proving once again that the US political system is in serious crisis and dysfunction as it has failed to effectively handle issues that matter to people's livelihood but it will further tear the society apart by escalating partisan struggle. US media even said that signs of "civil war" are emerging, while analysts said that US democracy is facing catastrophe as voters might only have to make choice between "the incompetent and the guilty." 

The US Justice Department removed 11 sets of classified documents from Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence while executing a search warrant this week for possible violations of the Espionage Act and other possible crimes, according to court documents unsealed and released on Friday, CNN reported.

On Saturday, CNN, which holds a hostile attitude toward Trump, reported that one of Trump's attorneys signed a letter in June asserting that "there was no more classified information stored at Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence," according to "two sources familiar with the matter." The letter raises fresh questions about the number of people who may have legal exposure in the ongoing investigation into the handling of classified materials from Trump's time in the White House.

Fox News, a conservative US media outlet, reported that the FBI seized boxes containing records covered by attorney-client privilege and potentially executive privilege during its raid of Mar-a-Lago, according to "sources familiar with the investigation," adding that the Justice Department opposed Trump lawyers' request for the appointment of an independent, special master to review the records.

Impact to midterm elections

Chinese analysts said that based on the reports from US media and the hard evidence released, the case has now received attention from both the left and the right as well as the swing voters, while the attention  upon the issues that do not favor Democrats like the incompetence of President Joe Biden's administration in handling inflation, and the business scandal about House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her son in their provocative trip to Taiwan, has been covered up or shifted away.  

Polling from YouGov, an international research data and analytics group, conducted on Tuesday found that 62 percent of Americans thought it was either "a very big problem" (45 percent) or "somewhat of a problem" (17 percent) that Trump allegedly held onto classified documents after leaving office.

Lü Xiang, an expert on US studies and research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Sunday, "Trump is unlikely to escape unscathed from the case this time, and he's still under pressure from New York State's investigation over his tax and loan issues, while many Republican politicians have been muted in their support and criticism of the investigation after the hard evidence found in Mar-a-Lago."

The possibility that the Democrats will keep control of the House and Senate after the midterm elections later this year is rising, because Republican candidates who sought Trump's backing to boost their popularity are now facing huge difficulties, Lü said.

But Trump could still minimize the damage if he and his lawyers can effectively challenge the investigation from the "procedural justice" and appeal to the Supreme Court, but that will take a very long time and will not finish before the midterms. If there are no other unexpected major changes, Democrats are now favorite to keep control of Congress, analysts said.  

Catastrophe of US democracy 

Diao Daming, an associate professor at the Renmin University of China in Beijing, told the Global Times on Sunday that this is another proof of the catastrophe of US democracy. "We all know neither Democrats nor Republicans can effectively respond the US people's demands over the economy and livelihoods, but some still believe that maybe they could at least focus the discussion on economic matters during the election. Now, Trump's case will make the partisan struggle dominate the election, and the US is actually offering the voters only two choices - the incompetent and the guilty." 

More importantly, the case will further tear US society apart and some US media outlets even reported that the signs of "civil war" are emerging. The New York Times reported that the reaction to the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago went far beyond the usual ire and indignation among the Trump supporters. Pro-Trump influencers, figures in the media and even some Republican candidates for office employed the language of violence to rally opposition.

"Tomorrow is war," Steven Crowder, a conservative commentator with nearly 2 million Twitter followers, wrote on the site within hours of the FBI's search. "Sleep well."

"This means war," The Gateway Pundit, a pro-Trump outlet, wrote in an online post that was quickly amplified by a Telegram account connected to Steve Bannon, Trump's onetime political adviser. Hours later, on the podcast "Bannon's War Room," Joe Kent, a Trump-endorsed House candidate in Washington, was asked by the host for his assessment of the search.

"This just shows everyone what many of us have been saying for a very long time," Kent said. "We're at war."

Lü said, "Trump's supporters will never believe the FBI investigation against Trump is a pure legal case. Just as Trump claims, his supporters will only believe this is a persecution and witch-hunt launched by the Democrats and the Biden administration. No matter how and what the mainstream US media and the Democrats say, it's impossible for them to convince Trump supporters, a huge amount of US voters, to peacefully accept the result if Trump has been sentenced to prison or has been banned from running for election again."

During a recent meeting at the White House, a group of historians warned Biden that the US is facing threats like those the country saw in the pre-Civil War period, the Washington Post reported on Wednesday.

Historian Michael Beschloss, who has made the case that US democracy is in existential danger, was reportedly among the academics who spoke to Biden. Though he sounded the alarm about the threats America's democracy is facing at present, Beschloss also says that a civil conflict in the US would be unlikely to resemble the devastating war of the 1860s, the Business Insider reported. 

Beschloss said in a social media post on Thursday that "if any kind of civil war faces Americans (may God forbid), it is unlikely to be two armies fighting over one paramount issue (slavery), as in 1861-1865, but sporadic, mounting bursts of violence against our federal government as it tries to enforce rule of law." 

As researchers who track extremism have sounded the alarm about an escalation of violent rhetoric from the far-right, including talk of another "civil war" and threats against federal law enforcement, by Thursday, an attempted attack on an FBI field office in Cincinnati appeared to underscore the real danger behind those threats, particularly given a digital trail of ominous posts that were left under the name of the suspect, NPR reported.

Lü said that while the US is governed by Democrats, the Trump supporters are unlikely to launch another massive attack like the Capitol Hill Attack in 2021, as the armed law-enforcement forces like National Guard are on high alert and Trump's supporters are not very well organized, although it is possible they could make scattered and small attacks all over the country in the long term. This would still be harmful for the US.