Rushed Elections Could Backfire in Central African Republic
Celeste Hicks
Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2015
A new date of Dec. 13 has been set for national elections in the Central African Republic, after the vote was postponed again last month due to renewed violence. A constitutional referendum, which was also scheduled for October, will now be held on Dec. 6. However, there are many who fear the electoral process is being rushed.
Legislative and presidential elections were originally scheduled to take place in February 2015, but were repeatedly delayed due to security concerns and the failure to register all voters. Another outbreak of deadly violence in the capital, Bangui, in late September—in which at least 77 people were killed, 300 injured and 40,000 people displaced—forced the latest delay last month.
The mandate for CAR’s political transition, which established a temporary government after the overthrow of President Francois Bozize by the Seleka rebel group in 2013, is due to expire on Dec. 31. The international community, in particular France, has been pushing for the country to hold elections as soon as possible in order to bring that transition to an end.
Although CAR’s transitional president, Catherine Samba-Panza, said last week that she fully supports the new December date, many in the country still believe that CAR is not ready for an election. On Oct. 9, Dieudonne Kombo Yaya, the president of the National Electoral Authority, resigned, citing “pressure from the CAR presidency and the international community.” The election authority’s vice president had also resigned in late August.
Significant obstacles remain in the way of a free and fair vote. Most crucial among them is the widespread lack of security in the country. Following the Bangui violence in September, there have been almost daily reports of unrest in several regions of the country, including around the central towns of Bambari and Kaga Bandoro. “If the vote is held now it may not be inclusive,” warns Thibaud Lesueur, the Central Africa analyst for the International Crisis Group, in an interview. “In fact, it could be dangerous and could fuel further instability.”
The September clashes had chilling echoes of the interreligious violence that wracked the country in 2013 and 2014 and highlighted how little progress has been made in neutralizing armed groups and bringing perpetrators of that violence to justice. That includes both those affiliated with the former Seleka rebels, a mainly Muslim group, and the predominantly Christian militias known as the anti-balaka. No formal process of disarmament, demobilization and reconciliation has been launched, despite pledges to do so at a national reconciliation forum in May 2015. Meanwhile, armed groups remain in control of several districts in Bangui and other parts of the country.
Although the United Nations peacekeeping force in CAR, known by its French acronym, MINUSCA, has around 11,000 boots on the ground, it has been unable to make much progress reining in these groups and providing security. There have been claims that leaders of both the former Seleka and the anti-balaka militias are actively contributing to the continuing instability. In early October, international forces had to intervene to stop militiamen loyal to a former Seleka leader, Nourredine Adam, from marching on Bangui. On his return to CAR after almost a year out of the country, Adam recently announced that he was opposed to holding elections before the end of 2015.
Beyond security, there have been ongoing delays in voter registration in a country where millions of people have no official documentation and citizenship verification processes have been heavily criticized. Registration has not yet been completed in the country’s camps for internally displaced persons, many of which are in inaccessible areas of the country where the poor condition of roads has been exacerbated by the rainy season. Particularly in the north and west of CAR, there continue to be deep-seated suspicions of Muslims, many of whom have family links with Chad and Sudan, among some Christian communities that consider them foreigners who should not have the right to vote.
France’s desire to see elections held as soon as possible stems from its wish to withdraw its remaining 900 peacekeepers, referred to as Sangaris after the name of France’s operation in CAR. France already has a considerable security burden in West and Central Africa in the form of the 3,000-strong Operation Barkhane, a counterterrorism force across the Sahel region that is headquartered in Chad’s capital, N’Djamena. But France’s apparent need to relieve its overstretched military by distancing itself from CAR’s transition raises questions about who else can act as a guarantor to secure a future peace.
Chad, which has in the past often played a behind-the-scenes but deciding role in CAR’s political affairs, has kept something of a low profile since the withdrawal of its troops from MISCA, the African Union’s peacekeeping force in CAR, in 2014 after they killed civilians in Bangui. Although Adam, the Seleka leader, reportedly recently visited Chad, President Idriss Deby Itno has only reiterated the official French line, saying in Paris in early October that the transition period must end as soon as possible. Many have questioned whether the Economic Community of Central African States, which has been involved in approving CAR’s electoral timetable, has the political clout to push through the process.
Even if there are no more delays and elections do indeed take place in December, there is little optimism that any of the candidates will be in a position to lead genuine reconciliation. Martin Ziguele, a long-term opposition figure during Bozize’s rule, is emerging as the presidential favorite. Yet he is tainted in some people’s eyes because of his past involvement in government. Bozize himself has stated his intention to return from exile in Cameroon to stand as a candidate for his National Convergence “Kwa Na Kwa” party, but he remains deeply discredited in many areas of the country. President Samba-Panza is banned from running again, according to the terms of the transitional agreement.
In the short term, the prospects for a durable peace in CAR look dim, and rushed elections could only compound that. Questions remain about whether the relatively short phase of talks for a political transition has been able to achieve anything concrete. “Should it be about just getting to an election, or should it be about dealing with the real issues a country faces?” Lesueur asks. “Without disarmament and a genuine reconciliation, we risk having a repeat of the same violence in years to come.”
Celeste Hicks is a freelance journalist whose work focuses on Africa and the Sahel. She was the BBC’s correspondent in Mali and Chad from 2007 to 2010.
Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2015
A new date of Dec. 13 has been set for national elections in the Central African Republic, after the vote was postponed again last month due to renewed violence. A constitutional referendum, which was also scheduled for October, will now be held on Dec. 6. However, there are many who fear the electoral process is being rushed.
Legislative and presidential elections were originally scheduled to take place in February 2015, but were repeatedly delayed due to security concerns and the failure to register all voters. Another outbreak of deadly violence in the capital, Bangui, in late September—in which at least 77 people were killed, 300 injured and 40,000 people displaced—forced the latest delay last month.
The mandate for CAR’s political transition, which established a temporary government after the overthrow of President Francois Bozize by the Seleka rebel group in 2013, is due to expire on Dec. 31. The international community, in particular France, has been pushing for the country to hold elections as soon as possible in order to bring that transition to an end.
Although CAR’s transitional president, Catherine Samba-Panza, said last week that she fully supports the new December date, many in the country still believe that CAR is not ready for an election. On Oct. 9, Dieudonne Kombo Yaya, the president of the National Electoral Authority, resigned, citing “pressure from the CAR presidency and the international community.” The election authority’s vice president had also resigned in late August.
Significant obstacles remain in the way of a free and fair vote. Most crucial among them is the widespread lack of security in the country. Following the Bangui violence in September, there have been almost daily reports of unrest in several regions of the country, including around the central towns of Bambari and Kaga Bandoro. “If the vote is held now it may not be inclusive,” warns Thibaud Lesueur, the Central Africa analyst for the International Crisis Group, in an interview. “In fact, it could be dangerous and could fuel further instability.”
The September clashes had chilling echoes of the interreligious violence that wracked the country in 2013 and 2014 and highlighted how little progress has been made in neutralizing armed groups and bringing perpetrators of that violence to justice. That includes both those affiliated with the former Seleka rebels, a mainly Muslim group, and the predominantly Christian militias known as the anti-balaka. No formal process of disarmament, demobilization and reconciliation has been launched, despite pledges to do so at a national reconciliation forum in May 2015. Meanwhile, armed groups remain in control of several districts in Bangui and other parts of the country.
Although the United Nations peacekeeping force in CAR, known by its French acronym, MINUSCA, has around 11,000 boots on the ground, it has been unable to make much progress reining in these groups and providing security. There have been claims that leaders of both the former Seleka and the anti-balaka militias are actively contributing to the continuing instability. In early October, international forces had to intervene to stop militiamen loyal to a former Seleka leader, Nourredine Adam, from marching on Bangui. On his return to CAR after almost a year out of the country, Adam recently announced that he was opposed to holding elections before the end of 2015.
Beyond security, there have been ongoing delays in voter registration in a country where millions of people have no official documentation and citizenship verification processes have been heavily criticized. Registration has not yet been completed in the country’s camps for internally displaced persons, many of which are in inaccessible areas of the country where the poor condition of roads has been exacerbated by the rainy season. Particularly in the north and west of CAR, there continue to be deep-seated suspicions of Muslims, many of whom have family links with Chad and Sudan, among some Christian communities that consider them foreigners who should not have the right to vote.
France’s desire to see elections held as soon as possible stems from its wish to withdraw its remaining 900 peacekeepers, referred to as Sangaris after the name of France’s operation in CAR. France already has a considerable security burden in West and Central Africa in the form of the 3,000-strong Operation Barkhane, a counterterrorism force across the Sahel region that is headquartered in Chad’s capital, N’Djamena. But France’s apparent need to relieve its overstretched military by distancing itself from CAR’s transition raises questions about who else can act as a guarantor to secure a future peace.
Chad, which has in the past often played a behind-the-scenes but deciding role in CAR’s political affairs, has kept something of a low profile since the withdrawal of its troops from MISCA, the African Union’s peacekeeping force in CAR, in 2014 after they killed civilians in Bangui. Although Adam, the Seleka leader, reportedly recently visited Chad, President Idriss Deby Itno has only reiterated the official French line, saying in Paris in early October that the transition period must end as soon as possible. Many have questioned whether the Economic Community of Central African States, which has been involved in approving CAR’s electoral timetable, has the political clout to push through the process.
Even if there are no more delays and elections do indeed take place in December, there is little optimism that any of the candidates will be in a position to lead genuine reconciliation. Martin Ziguele, a long-term opposition figure during Bozize’s rule, is emerging as the presidential favorite. Yet he is tainted in some people’s eyes because of his past involvement in government. Bozize himself has stated his intention to return from exile in Cameroon to stand as a candidate for his National Convergence “Kwa Na Kwa” party, but he remains deeply discredited in many areas of the country. President Samba-Panza is banned from running again, according to the terms of the transitional agreement.
In the short term, the prospects for a durable peace in CAR look dim, and rushed elections could only compound that. Questions remain about whether the relatively short phase of talks for a political transition has been able to achieve anything concrete. “Should it be about just getting to an election, or should it be about dealing with the real issues a country faces?” Lesueur asks. “Without disarmament and a genuine reconciliation, we risk having a repeat of the same violence in years to come.”
Celeste Hicks is a freelance journalist whose work focuses on Africa and the Sahel. She was the BBC’s correspondent in Mali and Chad from 2007 to 2010.
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