Can Pacific Deterrence Initiative Unite US Regional Allies?

By Song Zhongping 

Global Times 

2020/12/7 20:48:40

42 naval vessels that participated in Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) multinational naval exercises conduct drills near Hawaii, July 25, 2014. Photo: Xinhua

US lawmakers are expected to vote Tuesday over their annual defense bill. The Washington Post reported that the China-focused flagship program in the defense bill is the new Pacific Deterrence Initiative (PDI), whose aim is to establish a region wide approach to counter China in its immediate area of influence.

The bill said the PDI aims to increase the lethality and enhance the design and posture of the Joint Force in the Indo-Pacific region, strengthen alliances and partnerships and carry out a program of exercises, experimentation, and innovation for the Joint Force in the Indo-Pacific region.

Essentially, the PDI intends to solidify US allies to jointly check China.

It has been reported that the PDI is inspired by the European Deterrence Initiative (EDI), which was launched in 2014 to support the presence of US forces to help defend NATO allies against Russia. However, despite being US close allies, NATO members cannot remain on the same page over a bunch of issues, such as raising their defense budget as the US demanded. 

When it comes to the Asia-Pacific region, the US has not established a large military alliance in the Asia-Pacific region as it has in Europe. Therefore, it will be more difficult for the US to ask regional countries to raise military defense budgets to coordinate with US strategy to counter China.

Furthermore, due to close economic ties with China, regional countries have their own calculations. Even US close allies in the region (namely Japan and South Korea) will be reluctant to follow the lead of the US in countering China. Therefore, it will be harder for regional countries to remain on the same page to exert the US' PDI pressure in comparison with how the US handles EDI issues in Europe.

However, the US' potential PDI military deployment will pose threats to the People's Liberation Army (PLA), especially on the South China Sea issue and Taiwan question. 

The PLA has to devise more robust weaponry as a response. Furthermore, to deal with the US military's decentralized deployment, the PLA needs more military capability and flexibility. This is a new test for the PLA. But the US also needs to understand that under the conditions of modern warfare, its decentralized deployment does not have many advantages, and it is within the scope of the PLA's strike. This is a basic fact.

The PDI will be funded with $2.2 billion for the first year to enhance the US' "defensive posture, capabilities and alliances in the region," according to The Washington Post on Sunday. In fact, the $2.2 billion is not really an investment into personnel or equipment, but more about research and design in combat theories. The budget is not small, and there will be additional costs if equipment and personnel are further increased.

Currently, the US is facing a difficult financial situation, and the COVID-19 epidemic has made it even worse. Whether the US government can implement such a defense bill depends on Congress and the Biden administration. But judging from the current situation, it is very likely that Joe Biden will follow the Trump administration's Asia-Pacific policies, or even Indo-Pacific policies, to impose stricter containment tactics against China. 

Once the bill is approved and passed by Congress, it will become law and Biden will not be able to overturn it. Will the 2022 national defense budget follow this same pattern? Time and close observation will tell. Regardless, it will be difficult for Biden to completely abandon the Trump administration's path. 

The US Congress will launch the PDI just as Biden is about to take office. This is to set goals for Biden. The Congress hopes Biden will follow Trump's policies and wants to make the president-elect understand that the US' national policies, including military strategies, should not change.  

After Biden takes office, his priority will be maintaining stability. After all, in the context of the coronavirus, maintaining stability is more practical than making drastic military reforms.

The author is a Chinese military expert and commentator. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn