French Elections: Left Projected to Win Most Seats, Ahead of Macron's Coalition and Far Right

According to initial estimates, the Nouveau Front Populaire left-wing alliance is projected to win between 177 and 192 seats in France's Assemblée Nationale, ahead of Macron's coalition (between 152 and 158) and the far-right Rassemblement National (between 138 and 145).

By Le Monde in English 

France's left-wing parties were expected to win the most seats in the Assemblée Nationale, after the second round of snap parliamentary elections, first estimates showed on Sunday, July 7. The far right made significant gains but finished third, behind President Emmanuel Macron's coalition and well below expectations.

The Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) alliance, formed less than three weeks ago by the main left-wing parties, was expected to clinch between 177 and 192 seats, according to the early estimates by Ipsos for France Télévisions, Radio France, France24/RFI and LCP. The far-right Rassemblement National and its allies were projected to win between 138 and 145 seats, and Macron's coalition, Ensemble, between 152 and 158.

The members of the conservative party Les Républicains who did not join forces with the RN –unlike their disputed leader Eric Ciotti – were projected to win 63-67 seats, roughly as many as in the outgoing legislature.

These results mean France will have a hung parliament, with three major blocs but no clear majority. That leaves Macron in a position to negotiate with parties that have long been in opposition to him to try to form a coalition government.

"The president has the duty to call on the Nouveau Front Populaire to govern," declared left-wing leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The leader of La France Insoumise (LFI, radical left) party spoke from the restaurant La Rotonde Stalingrad, in northern Paris, where his party held its election night event, just after 8 pm. Mélenchon praised the electorate's efforts to obtain "a result that was said to be impossible" – a victory for the left. "Our people have clearly rejected the worst-case scenario. Tonight, the RN is far from having an absolute majority," he declared, adding that this was "an immense relief for the millions of people who make up the new France."

"A majority has made a different choice for the country" than that of the far right, added Mélenchon, believing that now "the will of the people must be confirmed."

"The president must bow" to the results of the left, he said, adding that the NFP alliance "will apply nothing but its program, all of its program." The projected breakdown among the left-wing parties was 73-80 seats for LFI, 60-64 for the Socialists, 33-36 for the Greens, and 11-12 to the Communists.

According to the Elysée, Macron will wait until the new Assemblée has been "structured" before "taking the necessary decisions." The president will therefore not speak on Sunday evening. Macron, who has called for "prudence" in the face of results that could still change over the course of the evening, was said to be "taking note of the results of the legislative elections as they come in, constituency by constituency."

"In his role as guarantor of our institutions, he will ensure that the sovereign choice of the French people is respected," added the Elysée. He was said to want to wait for the Assemblée to take shape before appointing a new prime minister.

The current prime minister, Gabriel Attal, said on Sunday evening that "in keeping with republican tradition," he would tender his resignation to the president "tomorrow morning." However, Attal added: "I will of course continue to assume my duties for as long as duty requires." "Tonight marks the start of a new era," he added, stressing that France's destiny would "more than ever" be played out in Parliament.

'Republican front'

The leader of the RN, Jordan Bardella, denounced in a speech on Sunday evening the "alliance of dishonor" which "deprives the French of a policy of recovery." Bardella spoke of "unnatural alliances" between the presidential coalition and the left, which he said had led to his party's defeat. In the week between the two rounds of voting, more than 200 candidates, mostly from the left and center, dropped out in favor of a better-placed candidate to beat the RN, to prevent the far right from ascending to power in what is called the "republican front" in France. "These electoral agreements throw France into the arms of Mélenchon," Bardella said.

Bardella nonetheless hailed "the momentum which carried the RN, and which put it in the lead in the first round" and enabled it to obtain a historic number of MPs in the Assemblée. "Faced with the single party," he said, in an attack on his opponents' collaboration, "tonight, everything begins."

Far-right leader Marine Le Pen said on Sunday evening that the RN's victory was "only deferred," stressing that it was "the number one" party in France. "I have too much experience to be disappointed by a result where we double our number of MPs," she added.

Macron called the snap elections three years before the scheduled end of the legislature after his coalition was soundly beaten by the RN in the European elections on June 9. In the first round, on June 30, the far-right party came out on top with 33.35% of the vote nationwide.

In the final week of campaigning, the RN faced scrutiny for the comments made by many of its candidates: Dozens have made racist, homophobic or xenophobic statements. Many of them will now sit in the Assemblée Nationale as part of a historic far-right wave. The previous record for the far right, set two years ago, was 89 seats.

The NFP alliance was formed by the Socialists, Greens, Communists and Mélenchon's radical left party LFI, along with some smaller parties and independents. A similar alliance, though less broad, had been formed in 2022 and had made the left the largest opposition force in the Assemblée, but broke apart after regular tensions, particularly between LFI and the other parties.