President-Elect, Senator Barack Obama and Michelle, the first lady-elect, with their two daughters, greeting hundreds of thousands in Grant Park in Chicago on November 4, 2008.
Originally uploaded by Pan-African News Wire File Photos
Tue Nov 4, 2008 11:17pm EST
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Barack Obama's victory in the 2008 presidential election puts a Democrat in charge of the White House for the first time since Bill Clinton left office in January 2001.
Below are some of the possible consequences of the move:
* Obama has promised an orderly withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq and a greater focus on the war in Afghanistan. Democrats will call on him to carry out his pledge, but the gains that have been made in Iraq in recent months may make it tempting for Obama to stop short of his pledge to pull out one combat brigade per month until they are all withdrawn.
* In order to stimulate the weak U.S. economy, Obama and the Democrats are likely to reach an agreement on a second stimulus package to try to get consumers spending again, unless such a package is approved before Obama takes office January 20.
* Obama is likely to take further steps to regulate the financial industry in the wake of a credit crisis that infected Wall Street and triggered a stock meltdown that cost Americans billions of dollars in retirement savings.
* Obama ran on a pledge to give Americans who make less than $200,000 a year a tax cut, thus reaching 95 percent of taxpayers, and raise taxes on those making above $250,000 a year. With him and Democratic congressional leaders in charge, this pledge may be scaled back to give fewer people a tax cut and to include more people among those who would face higher taxes.
* Obama has said he would be willing to meet, without preconditions. with leaders of countries hostile to the United States, such as Iran, Cuba and Venezuela. Look for increased U.S. diplomatic activity with those countries with the aim of determining whether an Obama meeting with the leaders would be worthwhile.
(Writing by Steve Holland, editing by Patricia Zengerle)
Obama victory signals shift in race relations
Tue Nov 4, 2008 11:24pm EST
ATLANTA (Reuters) - For Americans burdened by a sense of history, something once unthinkable has happened. The United States has elected a black president.
What has changed in terms of race to enable Democratic candidate Barack Obama's defeat of Republican John McCain and what might change as a result?
Civil rights leader Jesse Jackson said his satisfaction at Obama's success was conditioned by a sense of history. Jackson witnessed the assassination of Martin Luther King in 1968 and twice ran for president in the 1980s.
"His (Obama) winning means America's getting better. We are more mature. We are less anxious around each other," he said in an interview.
Jackson put the election in the context of the movement to end racial segregation in the South in the 1950s and 1960s and win voting rights for blacks in the teeth of violent opposition.
"I know so many people white, black and Jewish who marched and were martyred. I wish that those who paid the supreme sacrifice could see the results of their labors," he said.
One surprise apparent in the earliest primaries in which parties chose their nominees was the support Obama attracted among whites voters.
At the same time, black voters were integral to Obama's success, swinging a number of states in his favor. And Obama went out of his way to embrace black voters and their concerns, most notably in a high-profile speech on race in March.
Those factors deal a blow to black skepticism about their role in politics and a lingering sense of disenfranchisement.
"The first thing Obama's presidency means for black people is, at least momentarily, a sense of full citizenship," said Melissa Harris-Lacewell, a political science professor at Princeton University.
Just as the election could change the way blacks perceive politics and their place in U.S. society, it could also alter the way they are perceived, particularly if Obama's administration gains a reputation for competence.
LEVERAGE
Conservative leader Newt Gingrich said Obama's rise reflected changes that have already taken place. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and her predecessor Colin Powell proved that blacks could deal at the highest levels in government, he said.
"It begins to be accepted that young men and women of color who can certainly dream the biggest dreams .... America has moved beyond any narrowly defined sense of racism," said the former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives in an interview.
Stubborn facts, however, point toward persistent inequality that Obama may struggle to tackle given the downturn facing the U.S. economy.
Black Americans make up around 13 percent of the population but earn less money and are less healthy than the general population. They are also more likely to be unemployed, less likely to own property and more likely to be convicted and jailed for crimes.
A debate rages over whether those disparities are due to prejudice, social disadvantages such as less well-funded schools in inner cities where many black Americans live, or whether African Americans should work harder to deal with their own issues.
Obama's frequent injunctions to parents to switch off the television set, get children to do homework and take better care of their children could tip the balance in the debate.
And if his administration expands health care it could significantly redress one big disparity, said Harris-Lacewell.
But one concern for people seeking to redress inequality is that Obama's victory could diminish their leverage when it comes to addressing those issues.
"People will say: 'We have elected a black president. We are done with race,'" said William Jelani Cobb, author of books about contemporary black culture.
YOUNG PEOPLE
Exit polls showed that large numbers of young voters turned out to vote for Obama as president.
That support is partly a product of school integration, which began in the 1960s, though recent studies show that the process of integration is being reversed.
It is also the result of the increasing visibility of African Americans in popular culture from music to movies. Jackson argued that the presence of blacks in sports had helped transform racial attitudes.
Music mogul Russell Simmons said hip hop and hip-hop culture and fashion had also profoundly impacted youth culture, despite the controversy associated with it.
"Hip hop and hip-hop culture had so much to do with this shift in race relations. ... The doors were knocked down by hip hop. It had more to do with a shift in race relations than all the civil rights leaders," he said.
Another fact that played little role in voting choices could yet prove important -- for the next four years the country's first family will be black.
Americans will watch Obama's daughters, who are 10 and 7, grow up in the White House.
That could give young people of color a renewed sense of the opportunities open to them.
(Editing by Jackie Frank)
INSTANT VIEW: Obama wins presidential election
Wed Nov 5, 2008 12:09am ESTPost
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama won a grueling two-year struggle for the White House on Tuesday, U.S. media projected, beating Republican John McCain to become the first black president in U.S. history.
Following are analysts' comments:
MARKETS
ALAN LANCZ, PRESIDENT, ALAN B. LANCZ & ASSOCIATES INC, AN INVESTMENT ADVISORY FIRM, TOLEDO, OHIO:
"A lot of this (Obama win) was already discounted in the market. You never know what's going to happen but basically I think any follow-through rally will be unsustainable. You might get a little euphoria with a big victory, but I don't think it's going to be a meter-changer."
WILLIAM LARKIN, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, CABOT MONEY MANAGEMENT, SALEM, MASSACHUSETTS:
"There is an uncertainty that is now behind us: worries about the election being too close or drawn out. People will be looking to see how Obama puts his cabinet together and the people he puts in place to deal with the housing problem. For Treasury Secretary, I am hoping he brings in a real heavy hitter."
EDDY CHEN, FUND MANAGER, PRUDENTIAL SECURITIES INVESTMENT TRUST, TAIWAN:
"The stock market has already factored in the results of the U.S. election to a certain extent, and so we should see much smaller rebounds in the coming days. The most important reaction we are looking at right now is still how Wall Street behaves in response to this Obama victory." KIRBY DALEY, SENIOR
STRATEGIST, NEWEDGE GROUP, HONG KONG:
"The knee-jerk complacency rally in Asia to an Obama win is likely creating an opportunity to sell. The bottom line is economic fundamentals in the U.S. are deteriorating faster than the market can keep up with. And there is very little an Obama administration can do to shield Asia from the effects of this downturn."
ROB HENDERSON, HEAD MARKET ECONOMICS, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK:
"Well, it can't be negative for markets. It's a vote for change and has to inject a degree of optimism that America can again reinvent itself. It's not a good time for anyone to be elected President given the problems there. An early guide will be who he picks for the major positions, particularly Treasury Secretary."
PETER KENNY, MANAGING DIRECTOR AT KNIGHT EQUITY MARKETS IN JERSEY CITY, NEW JERSEY:
"The market was putting in an Obama bounce earlier today, and we are seeing a continuation of that rally around the world.
"Clearly the market was anticipating a fairly substantial referendum on change and an Obama presidency and a different path. The market called it and the market was right.
"If you drill down where you found sector strength today it was in raw materials, alternative energy, infrastructure plays -- that shows the market predicted an Obama victory.
"This will be the first election in several cycles where there will likely not be any contestation by the losing party about vote count, voter fraud. This will mean less uncertainty and give Obama more of a mandate to move forward and to put in place a series of policies quickly, for it to be a smooth, accelerated transition."
HAAG SHERMAN, CO-FOUNDER AND MANAGING DIRECTOR, SALIENT PARTNERS, HOUSTON, TEXAS:
"Ultimately fundamentals will dictate where the markets go. At least in the near term you will see a more ebullient mood as it relates to the worldwide geopolitical scene with Obama's election and a more optimistic view than what we have had over the past few years.
"I think the Treasury market is reflecting concern over one party controlling government and what the ramifications of that will be, but I think the equity markets will be cheered by Obama's election."
MARK FREEMAN, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT AND PORTFOLIO MANAGER, WESTWOOD HOLDINGS GROUP IN DALLAS, TEXAS:
"Ultimately, what the markets like is clarity, and that's what they are getting here. At the margin that's a positive and was reflected in today's price action."
"Over the longer term, issuance is what comes to bear on the Treasury market but shorter term the market will focus on the more political or non-fundamental factors and how successful all the plans that are being implemented are in terms of their impact on the credit markets."
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS, TRADE:
KIM YOON-GEE, CHIEF ECONOMIST, DAEISHIN ECONOMIC RESEARCH IN SEOUL:
"What we worry about is the Democrats tend to put their policy priority on protecting the U.S.'s own economy, which may spread protectionism around the world.
"In light of the current situation when global cooperation is highly required, I do not believe the United States would exercise as strong a protectionist position as before.
"Under Obama's leadership, the U.S. is expected to speed up restructuring, so that financial markets will stabilize sooner than expected."
LEE SANG-JAE, ECONOMIST, HYUNDAI SECURITIES IN SEOUL:
"Obama's victory is good news for export-dependent Asian countries. There are a lot of expectations that the global economy will turn better.
"The new U.S. government is expected to help ease geopolitical risks globally, which will further stabilize oil prices. As seen during the Clinton administration, the U.S. trade deficit could narrow again and help reduce concerns over the global economic imbalance.
"There are concerns that Obama's government will be less pro-free trade and the U.S.-South Korea FTA deal would hit a snag, but we'll have to see how it works out."
ABHEEK BARUA, CHIEF ECONOMIST AT HDFC BANK, NEW DELHI:
"I think there were some niggling worries on Obama's stance on offshoring given the current recessionary forces blowing over the U.S. and the stance he may take. But on balance, I think there is much more faith is his bringing about a comprehensive change in the global economic architecture which is the need of the hour in fighting this global crisis.
"Global markets and the world economy are taking a huge sentiment booster from Obama's win as can be seen from the price actions today."
U.S. ECONOMIC POLICY
MARK KONYN, CEO OF ALLIANZ RCM ASIA PACIFIC IN HONG KONG
"We expect to see fiscal spending. Obviously there's some fear that the raising of taxes under a Democratic outcome as opposed to Republican will be more severe. But I think overall there needs to be more fiscal stimulus. In terms of how we were looking at markets we were pretty neutral on the outcome of the election.
"Markets like to see a decisive outcome. It's another area of uncertainty eliminated. But I think markets were bottoming out in any event."
GLENN B. MAGUIRE, ASIA PACIFIC CHIEF ECONOMIST, SOCIETE GENERALE, HONG KONG:
"You are likely to see Congress announce a second stimulus package, somewhere between $300 billion and $500 billion. It will probably be more focused on injecting money directly into the economy via infrastructure projects or tax breaks. Though Obama has enormous challenges, a $1 trillion plus deficit to deal with, ultimately part of the jigsaw is stabilizing and bolstering U.S. consumer sentiment. And if that happens its a positive for Asia."
DARIUSZ KOWALCZYK, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, CFC SEYMOUR, HONG KONG:
"The U.S. economy is still going into recession.
"There will continue to be monetary easing and fiscal loosening. This would happen under both presidents. The only difference is what the spending would go for ... but in terms of the budget position it would be pretty much similar, so I don't really think in the medium to long term it matters much for the markets."
TOMOMI YAMASHITA, FUND MANAGER, SHINKIN ASSET MANAGEMENT, TOKYO:
"His plan to tax higher income earners may dampen incentives a bit and this might limit U.S. competitiveness, and as far as the currency market is concerned a Republican victory might have been better."
ENERGY, COMMODITIES MARKETS
TOBIAS MERATH, HEAD OF COMMODITIES RESEARCH, CREDIT SUISSE, SINGAPORE:
"The victory for Obama will bring some certainty to the financial markets. And that's why currency analysts think that the dollar might rally for a slightly longer period. That could be negative for commodities in an indirect way. The direct impact of the Obama victory on commodities would be minimal."
JIM RITTERBUSCH, PRESIDENT OF RITTERBUSCH & ASSOCIATES IN THE UNITED STATES:
"I don't see any initial impact as far as energy trade is concerned. We already had a big rally in the oil market yesterday and it will take a few days to a few weeks before we get better clarity as to some of the policies that Obama plans to roll out.
"But by and large, this is a favorable longer-term development for the U.S. economy so with that in mind, this is basically a good thing."
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