Egyptian masses flood Tahrir Square demanding the resignation of the U.S.-backed neo-colonial regime of Hosni Mubarak. If Mubarak resigns and Vice-President Suleiman takes charge, will it be enough to get the people off the streets?
Originally uploaded by Pan-African News Wire File Photos
Ruling party officials suggest Egypt's president may 'meet protesters demands', as army continues to monitor situation.
Last Modified: 10 Feb 2011 16:43 GMT
Thousands thronged to Tahrir Square after the army's statement, in anticipation of Mubarak possibly resigning
The Supreme Council of Egyptian Armed Forces has met to discuss the ongoing protests against the government of Hosni Mubarak, the president.
In a statement entitled 'Communique Number One', televised on state television, the army said it had convened the meeting response to the current political turmoil, and that it would continue to convene such meetings.
Thurday's meeting was chaired by Mohamed Tantawi, the defence minister, rather than Mubarak, who, as president, would normally have headed the meeting.
"Based on the responsibility of the armed forces and its commitment to protect the people and its keenness to protect the nation... and in support of the legitimate demands of the people [the army] will continue meeting on a continuous basis to examine measures to be taken to protect the nation and its gains and the ambitions of the great Egyptian people," the statement.
The army's statement was met with a roar of approval from protesters in Tahrir Square as vast crowds poured into the area.
Earlier, Hassan al-Roweni, an Egyptian army commander, told protesters in the square that "everything you want will be realised".
Protesters have demanded that Mubarak immediately stand down as president.
Hassam Badrawi, the secretary general of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), told the BBC and Channel 4 News on that he expected Mubarak to hand over his powers to Omar Suleiman, the vice-president.
"I think the right thing to do now is to take the action that would satisfy ... protesters," Badrawi told BBC television in a live interview.
Ahmed Shafiq, the country's prime minister, also told the BBC that the president may step down on Thursday evening, and that the situation would be "clarified soon". He told the Reuters news agency, however, that Mubarak remained in control, and that "everything is still in the hands of the president".
However, Anas el-Fekky, Egypt's information minister, denied all reports of Mubarak resigning.
"The president is still in power and he is not stepping down," el-Fekky told Reuters. "The president is not stepping down and everything you heard in the media is a rumour."
State television has announced that Mubarak is due to deliver a live address to the nation on Thursday night from the presidential palace in Cairo.
It also reported that Mubarak was meeting with Omar Suleiman, the vice-president, at the presidential palace.
Mahmoud Zaher, a retired general in the Egyptian army, said that Mubarak's absence from the army meeting was a "clear and strong indication that [Mubarak] is no longer present", implying that the Egyptian president was not playing a role in governance any longer.
Robert Gibbs, the White House spokesman, said the US was closely watching a "very fluid situation".
Wael Ghonim, the Google executive who has played a key role in helping protesters get organised, said on the microblogging site Twitter on Thursday evening: "Mission accomplished. Thanks to all the brave young Egyptians."
He added shortly after, however, that protesters should "wait and see" before reaching any conclusions.
Jacky Rowland, our correspondent in Tahrir Square, described the atmosphere as "electric", with "standing room only" in the central Cairo area. She said that thousands gathered there were "celebrating a victory which has been anticipated, rather than actually achieved".
Labour union strikes
The developments come as the 17th day of pro-democracy protests continued across the country on Thursday, with labour unions joining pro-democracy protesters.
Egyptian labour unions held nationwide strikes for a second day, adding momentum to the pro-democracy demonstrations in Cairo and other cities.
Al Jazeera correspondents in Cairo reported that thousands of doctors, medical students and lawyers, the doctors dressed in white coats and the lawyers in black robes, marched in central Cairo and were hailed by pro-democracy protesters as they entered Tahrir [Liberation] Square.
The artists syndicate and public transport workers, including bus drivers, also joined the strikes, our correspondents reported.
"It's certainly increasing the pressure on the government here," Al Jazeera's Steffanie Dekker, reporting from Cairo, said.
"I think it's worth making the distinction that the strikes going on are more of an economic nature, they are not necessarily jumping on the bandwagon of the protesters in Tahrir Square.
"Many of them are not actually calling for the president to step down, but fighting for better wages, for better working conditions."
Pro-democracy supporters across the country have meanwhile called for a ten-million strong demonstration to take place after this week's Friday prayers.
Hoda Hamid, Al Jazeera's correspondent in Cairo, said that the mood in Liberation Square was "one of defiance, and if we judge by what is happening today, then I think ... many more people will heed that call and turn up".
She reported that some protesters had drawn up a list of demands beyond simply the exit of Mubarak. They included the formation of a transition government, which would include a council of presidents, representation from the army and well-respected judges, for the period of one year.
They demanded that parliament be dissolved and that a temporary constitution be put in place while a new one was drawn up by legal experts.
Al Jazeera's Ayman Mohyeldin in Cairo reported that at least five government buildings, including the governor's office and the office for public housing, were set alight in two straight days of riots in the northeastern town of Port Said. The situation in the city had calmed by Thursday evening, he said.
Protest investigation
Meanwhile, an immediate investigation has been launched and possible criminal charges could be brought against the senior officer who ordered the firing on protesters during protests on January 28 protests, Moyheldin said.
The ministry of interior also announced the sacking of the head of security in the New Valley governorate, Moyheldin said.
Also on Thursday, Mahmoud Wagdy, the interior minister, announced that the police were back at work on the streets of the capital.
Meanwhile, Suleiman, the country's vice-president, said on Thursday that his comments to American television station ABC had been taken out of context.
In his interview, Suleiman suggested that Egyptians were "not ready" for democracy. He had also earlier said that if protesters did not enter into dialogue with the Mubarak government, the army may be forced into carrying out a coup.
According to a statement released to a government news agency, Suleiman "emphasised that some sentences in his remarks ... were understood in the wrong way, especially his remarks regarding democratic transition in Egypt".
Meanwhile, Human Rights Watch said the death toll from violent clashes during protests has reached 302 since January 28.
Egypt's health ministry has denied the figures, saying official statistics would be released shortly.
Source: Al Jazeera and agencies
Egyptian army 'torturing' prisoners
Human rights groups allege that pro-democracy protesters have been detained or tortured in an "organised campaign".
Last Modified: 10 Feb 2011 15:05 GMT
Ayman Mohyeldin, Al Jazeera's correspondent in Cairo, witnessed scenes of violence during his detention by the army
The Egyptian military has been secretly detaining and torturing those it suspects of being involved in pro-democracy protests, according to testimony gathered by the British newspaper the Guardian.
The newspaper, quoting human rights agencies, put the number of people detained at "hundreds, possibly thousands," since protests against Hosni Mubarak, the Egyptian president, began on January 25.
While the military has said it is playing a neutral role in the political unrest, the newspaper quoted human rights campaigners as saying this was no longer the case, accusing the army of being involved in an organised campaign of disappearances, torture and intimidation.
Egyptians have long associated such crimes with the country's much-feared intelligence and security services, but not with the army.
"Their range is very wide, from people who were at the protests or detained for breaking curfew to those who talked back at an army officer or were handed over to the army for looking suspicious or for looking like foreigners even if they were not," Hossam Bahgat, director of the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights, told the Guardian.
"It's unusual and to the best of our knowledge it's also unprecedented for the army to be doing this."
The country's army has denied the charges of illegal detention or torture.
"The armed forces denies any abuse of protesters. The armed forces sticks to the principle of protecting peaceful protesters and it has never, nor will it ever, fire at protesters," an armed forces source told Reuters.
Speaking to Al Jazeera, Safwat El Zayat, a retired general in the Egyptian military, categorically denied the allegations made in the Guardian report, saying that the report was "aimed at damaging the reputation of the army, which always stands by the people and not the regime".
'Foreign enemies'
The report said that the detained included human rights activists, lawyers and journalists, and that human rights groups have "documented the use of electric shocks on some of those held by the army".
The newspaper quoted a man who said he was detained by the army while on his way to Tahrir Square, the focal point of protests in Cairo, with medical supplies.
The man said he was accused of working with "foreign enemies", beaten and then hauled to an army post, where his hands were tied behind his back.
In addition to hitting him, the soldiers also allegedly threatened him with rape.
Bahgat told the Guardian that it appears from the testimony of those who have been released that the military is conducting a campaign to try and break the protests.
"I think it's become pretty obvious by now that the military is not a neutral party," Heba Morayef, a researcher with Human Rights Watch (HRW) in Cairo, told the newspaper.
"The military doesn't want and doesn't believe in the protests and this is even at the lower level, based on the interrogations."
HRW says it has documented 119 cases of civilians being arrested by the military, but believes the actual number is much higher, as the army does not acknowledge the detentions.
The organisation told the Reuters news agency that it had documented at least five cases of torture, while one released detainee said he had seen at least 12 people given "electric shocks" on February 1.
'Aggresive manner'
Ayman Mohyeldin, Al Jazeera's correspondent in Cairo who was held by the military for several hours on February 6th, also witnessed scenes of violence during his detention.
Mohyeldin was held by the military while trying to enter Tahrir Square when he told soldiers at a checkpost that he was a journalist.
They questioned him regarding why he was there, and then, having tied his hands with plastic handcuffs, took him to a make-shift army post where he was interrogated and his equipment confiscated.
"I can tell you from what I saw and what I heard that a lot of [the detained] were beaten up, the military was dealing with them in a very aggresive manner," Mohyeldin said.
"They were slapped, they were kicked. The military was trying to essentially subdue them.
"In essence the military was dealing with these people as prisoners of war. These were individuals who were trying to plead for their safety, for their innocence.
"Many of them were crying, saying that they were simply just caught up in the wrong moment, but the military showed no mercy."
Mohyeldin said that some prisoners were quite badly beaten, while a soldier also used a taser gun to threaten prisoners. He said others showed evidence of having been whipped.
He said that prisoners at the post he was being held at were being treated aggresively by soldiers despite the fact that they were not being disobedient.
Mohyeldin also described how one protester, when initially detained, had claimed that he was an active member of the pro-democracy movement against Mubarak.
However, in just a few hours, the protester had broken down in tears and was willing to promise the soldiers that he would not return to Tahrir Square and that he was not really involved in protests.
All detainees who were released were made to sign a document that said that they would not attempt to return to Tahrir Square unless they obtained prior permission from the military.
Source: Al Jazeera and agencies
The youth of Tahrir Square
Al Jazeera meets the newly formed "youth coalition" who are speaking on behalf of a broad array of voices in the square
Evan Hill Last Modified: 10 Feb 2011 05:59 GMT
Leader's of the youth who spurred Egypt's protest movement are fighting to hold onto their principles
In the centre of Tahrir Square, surrounded by an explosion of art, political expression and communal solidarity that has crossed Egypt's social and economic lines, it's easy to get wrapped up in revolutionary fervor. One can forget that outside the square, from Washington DC to Cairo, elites are hammering out the country's new political order.
Heads have already rolled inside the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), and vice president Omar Suleiman - who appears to have taken over president Hosni Mubarak's job in all but name - has made a series of announcements offering mild concessions to the protesters who set off Egypt's uprising on January 25.
Both moves are aimed at placating the protest movement, which has transformed central Cairo for 15 days into an all-in-one refugee camp, music festival and political rally and has attracted the attention of the entire country and the international media.
But as the violence of January 28 and February 2 fades in memory, businesses re-open, and state television shows members of long-standing but toothless opposition parties meeting face-to-face with Suleiman, the youth who instigated the most significant grassroots political upheaval in modern Arab memory are taking steps to try to prevent their revolution from being sold out.
They say that now, following unproductive meetings between their intermediaries and Suleiman - who on Sunday said Egypt is "not ready for democracy" - they intend to escalate their campaign and expand beyond the square, opening an uncertain new front in the protests.
The headquarters tent
Near the centre of the square on Monday night, behind a stage with a full soundsystem where a man played protest songs on an acoustic guitar to a crowd of hundreds, members of the newly formed Coalition of the Youth of the Revolution gathered. Their new headquarters lies in a large green tent 100 metres to the north, underneath a stuffed and lynched effigy of Mubarak, but many hang around the stage to talk and keep easy access to the microphone.
Here we met Nasser Abdel Hamid, a well-connected 28-year-old from Cairo who is affiliated with Mohamed ElBaradei’s National Association for Change. Abdel Hamid is a busy man; with a phone call from the al-Arabiya news network in one hand, he greeted friends and associates with the other. During a lull, we moved away from the packed street the runs through the middle of the square and stepped onto the wide, circular patch of dirt and muddy turf where most of the protesters have set up their tent city.
He spread out newspapers for us to sit on.
"The grounds for negotiations are not acceptable to us," Abdel Hamid said. "We have seen a trend of groups who do not represent public opinion trying to speak on our behalf. But these opposition groups do not represent the public, we do, our demands are their demands."
The six youth groups under the coalition’s umbrella have so far refused calls from Suleiman’s office to attend negotiations, Abdel Hamid said. They have presented their preconditions to a group of intermediaries, sometimes called the "council of wise men," which includes Arab League chief Amr Moussa, business tycoon Naguib Sawiris, and Amr Hamzawy of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
The most significant demand, which still stands, is that Mubarak resigns or delegates his powers to Suleiman, which would begin an immediate transition to new leadership. But before Mubarak leaves office, they say, he must offer up a raft of constitutional amendments, specifically those pertaining to presidential elections, and dissolve both houses of parliament, the People’s Assembly and the Shoura Council, which they view as hopelessly corrupt and illegitimately elected.
From there, but before coming to the table, Abdel Hamid said, the protesters must be given guarantees that the country's 30-year-old emergency national security laws will be rescinded and that government officials will be investigated for attacks on demonstrators over the past two weeks, which have left around 300 people dead.
Recently, leaders from old-school Egyptian opposition parties such as the Wafd and Tagammu have met with Suleiman. Though they don't use the word, the talks look very much like negotiations.
Last week, Tagammu vice president Anis el-Bayya told Al Jazeera, during a lull in the rock-throwing street battles on the street below his party’s headquarters, that he and other opposition politicians fully supported the youth’s revolution. The demands he laid out - dissolution of parliament, a transfer of power from Mubarak to Suleiman - were the same as those we heard later from the youth coalition.
But it's clear that the coalition lacks trust in Bayya's generation.
"We will not negotiate until (Suleiman) proves to us that he is serious about these reforms, which is not the case at the moment," Abdel Hamid said. "What the opposition groups are doing is a waste of time."
Expanding the protests
Tuesday night, another coalition member associated with ElBaradei, 32-year-old Sally Moor, told us that the day’s negotiations between the "wise men" and Suleiman had not been fruitful. Mubarak had reportedly rebuffed the demand to step down or delegate his powers, she said.
Concessions announced by Suleiman earlier in the day – the formation of three committees to oversee reforms, draft constitutional amendments, and investigate violence against protesters – had failed to please the youth.
"How can you trust the regime to monitor the regime?" Moor asked.
The protests will now likely expand, she said. The plan is for demonstrators to begin occupying other critical squares and intersections in nearby Cairo neighborhoods - Dokki, on the Nile's west bank, and Talaat Harb, just east of Tahrir Square. The maneuver will be repeated in cities outside the capital. A large gathering in the square was again being planned for Friday.
Some had suggested the protesters move on the presidential palace in Heliopolis, around 14 kilometers east of central Cairo, but many believe the Republican Guard units defending the site are authorised and willing to shoot protesters, unlike the mainline army conscripts deployed around the square, some of whom have been recalled into active duty after being discharged.
Amr Ezz, a 27-year-old coalition leader and member of the April 6 youth movement - founded in solidarity with striking laborers in the Nile Delta city of Mahalla - told us that the coalition was also pushing for a nationwide strike. On Wednesday, that plan seemed to be going into effect; thousands of workers were reportedly striking in Mahalla, Suez and towns on the outskirts of Cairo.
Ezz said that the protest movement leaders in Tahrir, not the Wafd and Tagammu politicians meeting with Suleiman, had the most power and resonance with the people.
"On the ground parties have no tangible power," he said. "People here have no faith in old opposition figures who talk and talk but have done nothing for the people."
Ahmed Douma, a 22-year-old coalition representative for the Justice and Freedom party, echoed Ezz's statement.
"The people who were capable of achieving this revolution can prevent it from being stolen," Douma said. "Influence is proportional to power on the streets, and I think that the people are more powerful than the political parties … The opposition can appear on TV and discuss details of negotiations, but people will not respond to them like they do to us."
Such steadfast optimism will be necessary if the coalition hopes to succeed. Its demand for Mubarak to step down immediately increasingly looks like it may be considered a dead letter among policymakers in the United States, whose $1.55bn in annual assistance to Egypt awards great influence in the negotiation process.
The recent lack of public enthusiasm for Mubarak's departure from president Barack Obama and secretary of state Hillary Clinton won reproach from a collection of Washington-based analysts, the Working Group on Egypt, which said this week that policy makers risked condoning "an inadequate and possibly fraudulent transition."
A mixed roster
The youth coalition officially includes six groups: April 6, Justice and Freedom, and the ElBaradei affiliates, as well as the Muslim Brotherhood, the Democratic Front party, and independents.
Though it's not always a businesslike affair - since the coalition was announced, some members have left and the leadership has expanded from 10 members to 14 - the diverse alliance exhibits admirable message discipline. Their demands and preconditions are uniform, and nobody suggests relaxing their line.
There is also a sense of natural camaraderie. As we asked 26-year-old Mohamed Abbas, a representative for the Brotherhood, whether his constituents had explicit religious interest they wanted to promote during the transition, Moor, who is a Christian, joked that she wasn’t afraid of them.
The Brotherhood and the ElBaradei supporters are two of the coalition's more intriguing faces.
ElBaradei is a lightning rod. He is a darling of the West, but his own assistants acknowledge the wide criticism he suffers within Egypt, from Mubarak supporters as well as the square’s most liberal protesters.
They say he is out of touch with the Egyptian people; some say he has lived out of the country for too long, others criticize him for failing to visit the square and spend enough time among the people (he came once on January 30, made a speech, and left). Few say they'd support him for president.
But his supporters say that's not his role. They argue that ElBaradei was one of the few Egyptian figures in recent years to make public demands for constitutional change, a repeal of the emergency laws, and free and fair elections.
"Even as the supporters of Baradei, we know he does not have a role on the ground here," said Abdel Rahman Samir, a 26-year-old ElBaradei affiliate on the coalition. "These events are larger than him, let us be honest."
But Samir said ElBaradei "broke the fear barrier" in 2010 by launching a campaign - supported by the Brotherhood - that gathered hundreds of thousands of signatures from Egyptians supporting his ideas for change. ElBaradei may not lead a transitional government or even head a committee, but his stature as a Nobel laureate and former head of the United Nations' nuclear watchdog means that he can participate effectively in other ways, Samir said.
"We are trying to keep Baradei as our last playing card," he said. "Anyone who gets involved in the game of politics at this moment will squabble with political parties and dirty his name. He should keep his distance and wait until the scene is clean … He can push for youth rights externally, he can negotiate with the regime, he can hold conferences for youth."
On the other end of the spectrum is the conservative Muslim Brotherhood, a wide-reaching social movement that is technically banned but still considered - at least for now - to be the most organized political opposition group in Egypt. Though the Brotherhood's raison d'etre is to bring Egyptian society in line with Islamic principles, it has in the past decade allied itself closely with liberal opposition groups and helped push their pro-democracy, anti-repression agenda.
The Brotherhood has also been at pains to downplay its role in the protests. Before January 25, it publicly declared it would not officially join the demonstrations. Even so, the government still sought to roll out a by-now familiar canard, telling reporters that the Brotherhood had fomented the unrest and was responsible for hurling Molotovs from rooftops during the worst fighting, though it was clear the petrol bombs were coming from Mubarak supporters.
"The government uses the Brotherhood as a tool to scare people," Abbas, one of the two Brotherhood representatives on the coalition, told us.
At the end of the day, the coalition members set aside their ideologies; there's no use fighting for a slice of the pie when the pie doesn't yet exist, he said.
In an article about the protest movement, young Brotherhood member and blogger Abdelrahman Ayyash wrote that it is "impossible" to characterize the demonstrations as Islamic.
"Clearly, the Muslim Brotherhood would be honored if they were a part of forcing Mubarak to step down, but the truth is that the Egyptian youth made the first move, and the 'traditional' opposition followed the movement of the youth and participated in the protests and gave them very powerful support," Ayyash wrote.
He said that while Brotherhood members are present in the square supplying protesters with medicine and food, the group’s slogans - such as "Islam is the solution" - are nowhere to be found.
"You will know what it means when you see the leftist artist standing beside the Muslim Brotherhood activist and chanting against the Mubarak regime," he wrote. "It is the first protest in the history of Egypt that gathers every colour of the political spectrum for one goal: the departure of Mubarak and his regime."
"Of course (the Brotherhood) would like to see Egypt as a civil society but based on religion," Abbas told us. "But first it’s the Egyptian people's right to choose."
If the Brotherhood isn’t the top choice, he said, they’re still happy to be involved in the system.
With reporting by Lara el-Gibaly.
Source: Al Jazeera
The shaping of a New World Order
If the revolutions of 2011 succeed, they will force the creation of a very different regional and world system
Mark LeVine
Last Modified: 06 Feb 2011 15:07 GMT
Armed women on guard at one of Tehran's main squares at the start of the Iranian Revolution
I remember the images well, even though I was too young to understand their political significance. But they were visceral, those photos in the New York Times from Tehran in the midst of its revolutionary moment in late 1978 and early 1979. Not merely exuberance jumped from the page, but also anger; anger fuelled by an intensity of religious fervour that seemed so alien as to emanate from another planet to a "normal" pre-teen American boy being shown the newspaper by his father over breakfast.
Many commentators are comparing Egypt to Iran of 32 years ago, mostly to warn of the risks of the country descending into some sort of Islamist dictatorship that would tear up the peace treaty with Israel, engage in anti-American policies, and deprive women and minorities of their rights (as if they had so many rights under the Mubarak dictatorship).
I write this on February 2, the precise anniversary of Khomeini's return to Tehran from exile. It's clear that, while religion is a crucial foundation of Egyptian identity and Mubarak's level of corruption and brutality could give the Shah a run for his money, the situations are radically different on the ground.
A most modern and insane revolt
The following description, I believe, sums up what Egypt faces today as well as, if not better, than most:
"It is not a revolution, not in the literal sense of the term, not a way of standing up and straightening things out. It is the insurrection of men with bare hands who want to lift the fearful weight, the weight of the entire world order that bears down on each of us - but more specifically on them, these ... workers and peasants at the frontiers of empires. It is perhaps the first great insurrection against global systems, the form of revolt that is the most modern and the most insane.
One can understand the difficulties facing the politicians. They outline solutions, which are easier to find than people say ... All of them are based on the elimination of the [president]. What is it that the people want? Do they really want nothing more? Everybody is quite aware that they want something completely different. This is why the politicians hesitate to offer them simply that, which is why the situation is at an impasse. Indeed, what place can be given, within the calculations of politics, to such a movement, to a movement through which blows the breath of a religion that speaks less of the hereafter than of the transfiguration of this world?"
The thing is, it was offered not by some astute commentator of the current moment, but rather by the legendary French philosopher Michel Foucault, after his return from Iran, where he witnessed firsthand the intensity of the revolution which, in late 1978, before Khomeini's return, really did seem to herald the dawn of a new era.
Foucault was roundly criticised by many people after Khomeini hijacked the revolution for not seeing the writing on the wall. But the reality was that, in those heady days where the shackles of oppression were literally being shattered, the writing was not on the wall. Foucault understood that it was precisely a form of "insanity" that was necessary to risk everything for freedom, not just against one's government, but against the global system that has nuzzled him in its bosom for so long.
What was clear, however, was that the powers that most supported the Shah, including the US, dawdled on throwing their support behind the masses who were toppling him. While this is by no means the principal reason for Khomeini's successful hijacking of the revolution, it certainly played an important role in the rise of a militantly anti-American government social force, with disastrous results.
While Obama's rhetoric moved more quickly towards the Egyptian people than did President Carter's towards Iranians three decades ago, his refusal to call for Mubarak's immediate resignation raises suspicion that, in the end, the US would be satisfied if Mubarak was able to ride out the protests and engineer a "democratic" transition that left American interests largely intact.
The breath of religion
Foucault was also right to assign such a powerful role to religion in the burgeoning revolutionary moment - and he experienced what he called a "political spirituality", But, of course, religion can be defined in so many ways. The protestant theologian Paul Tillich wonderfully described it as encompassing whatever was of "ultimate concern" to a person or people. And today, clearly, most every Egyptian has gotten religion from this perspective.
So many people, including Egypt's leaders, have used the threat of a Muslim Brotherhood takeover to justify continued dictatorship, with Iran as the historical example to justify such arguments. But the comparison is plagued by historical differences. The Brotherhood has no leader of Khomeini's stature and foreswore violence decades ago. Nor is there a culture of violent martyrdom ready to be actualised by legions of young men, as occurred with the Islamic Revolution. Rather than trying to take over the movement, which clearly would never have been accepted - even if its leaders wanted to seize the moment, the Brotherhood is very much playing catch up with the evolving situation and has so far worked within the rather ad hoc leadership of the protests.
But it is equally clear that religion is a crucial component of the unfolding dynamic. Indeed, perhaps the iconic photo of the revolution is one of throngs of people in Tahrir Square bowed in prayers, literally surrounding a group of tanks sent there to assert the government's authority.
This is a radically different image of Islam than most people - in the Muslim world as much as in the West - are used to seeing: Islam taking on state violence through militant peaceful protest; peaceful jihad (although it is one that has occurred innumerable times around the Muslim world, just at a smaller scale and without the world's press there to capture it).
Such imagery, and its significance, is a natural extension of the symbolism of Mohamed Bouazizi's self-immolation, an act of jihad that profoundly challenges the extroverted violence of the jihadis and militants who for decades, and especially since 9/11, have dominated the public perception of Islam as a form of political spirituality.
Needless to say, the latest images - of civil war inside Tahrir Square - will immediately displace these other images. Moreover, if the violence continues and some Egyptian protesters lose their discipline and start engaging in their own premeditated violence against the regime and its many tentacles, there is little doubt their doing so will be offered as "proof" that the protests are both violent and organised by the Muslim Brotherhood or other "Islamists".
A greater threat than al-Qa'eda
As this dynamic of nonviolent resistance against entrenched regime violence plays out, it is worth noting that so far, Osama bin Laden and his Egyptian deputy, Ayman Al-Zawahiri, have had little - if anything - of substance to say about the revolution in Egypt. What they've failed to ignite with an ideology of a return to a mythical and pure beginning - and a strategy of human bombs, IEDs, and planes turned into missiles - a disciplined, forward-thinking yet amorphous group of young activists and their more experienced comrades, "secular" and "religious" together (to the extent these terms are even relevant anymore), have succeeded in setting a fire with a universal discourse of freedom, democracy and human values - and a strategy of increasingly calibrated chaos aimed at uprooting one of the world's longest serving dictators.
As one chant in Egypt put it succinctly, playing on the longstanding chants of Islamists that "Islam is the solution", with protesters shouting: "Tunisia is the solution."
For those who don't understand why President Obama and his European allies are having such a hard time siding with Egypt's forces of democracy, the reason is that the amalgam of social and political forces behind the revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt today - and who knows where tomorrow - actually constitute a far greater threat to the "global system" al-Qa'eda has pledged to destroy than the jihadis roaming the badlands of Afghanistan, Pakistan, or Yemen.
Mad as hell
Whether Islamist or secularist, any government of "of the people" will turn against the neoliberal economic policies that have enriched regional elites while forcing half or more of the population to live below the $2 per day poverty line. They will refuse to follow the US or Europe's lead in the war on terror if it means the continued large scale presence of foreign troops on the region's soil. They will no longer turn a blind eye, or even support, Israel's occupation and siege across the Occupied Palestinian territories. They will most likely shirk from spending a huge percentage of their national income on bloated militaries and weapons systems that serve to enrich western defence companies and prop up autocratic governments, rather than bringing stability and peace to their countries - and the region as a whole.
They will seek, as China, India and other emerging powers have done, to move the centre of global economic gravity towards their region, whose educated and cheap work forces will further challenge the more expensive but equally stressed workforces of Europe and the United States.
In short, if the revolutions of 2011 succeed, they will force the creation of a very different regional and world system than the one that has dominated the global political economy for decades, especially since the fall of communism.
This system could bring the peace and relative equality that has so long been missing globally - but it will do so in good measure by further eroding the position of the United States and other "developed" or "mature" economies. If Obama, Sarkozy, Merkel and their colleagues don't figure out a way to live with this scenario, while supporting the political and human rights of the peoples of the Middle East and North Africa, they will wind up with an adversary far more cunning and powerful than al-Qa'eda could ever hope to be: more than 300 million newly empowered Arabs who are mad as hell and are not going to take it any more.
Mark LeVine is a professor of history at UC Irvine and senior visiting researcher at the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies at Lund University in Sweden. His most recent books are Heavy Metal Islam (Random House) and Impossible Peace: Israel/Palestine Since 1989 (Zed Books).
The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial policy.
Source: Al Jazeera
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