Challenges For the Next President of Egypt
Granma.cu
Seven times Egyptians have gone to the polls since the fall of Hosni Mubarak, in February of 2011, and voted in two presidential elections, the last of which was won by Army General Abdel Fatah al Sisi - head of the army at the time of the coup which deposed democratically elected president Mohamed Morsi, last July.
The 59 year old Al Sisi, enjoys much support among some sectors of Egyptian society, for having led the overthrow of Morsi. Al Sisi won more than 96% of the vote (24 million votes), against his sole rival, leftist politician Hamdín Sabbahi, who only achieved 3% (some 800,000 votes) in elections in which less than 50% of those eligible to vote participated. The Presidential inauguration is scheduled for June 7, according to Egyptian newspapers.
In the search for stability post Mubarak, Al Sisi must face various challenges and problems covering all aspects of daily life in Egypt, the biggest country in the Arab world, which has deteriorated over the last turbulent three years.
AN UNSTABLE ECONOMY
Repairing the country’s economy will be the new government’s most difficult challenge, given the current situation. The fiscal deficit and public debt have spiraled from 2011 to date, reaching 14% and almost 100% of The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), respectively. Foreign investment diminished due to political instability and insecurity. One quarter (25.2%) of the population lives below the poverty line; unemployment is approximately 13%, of which 70% are between the ages of 15 and 29.
"These two socially explosive problems are among the main issues which ignited popular revolt against Mubarak, and both have gotten worse in the last three years," warned Cairo economist Mohammed Samhouri, in a report published in the online newspaper Sada.
To make matters worse, instability and insecurity have damaged the tourist industry (which accounts for 11.3% of the GDP and provides 12.5% of employment) to the extent that 2013 was described by the government as the "worst year (for the industry) in the recent history." What is more, since Morsi’s defeat, a significant portion of the little money Egypt has comes from its allies in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. What Egypt is providing in exchange for this financial assistance (some 20 billion dollars in the last 10 months), and how long it will last, is still unknown.
SUBSIDIES VS. SUPPORT
Any long term economic solution implies some sort of cut in the numerous state subsidies, primarily to bread and fuel, which account for almost one third of the national budget.
Writing in the Australian newspaper The Sydney Morning Herald, Adel Abdel Ghafar, an expert in Arab issues at the Australian National University, commented, "Any cuts to subsidies will be politically costly and require a social consensus, which currently seems impossible to achieve."
ARMY INTERESTS
Although popular, having the powerful military on his side does not ensure Al Sisi a promising future. The institution has its own economic empire and any reform could affect its interests, which encompass 40% of the total Egyptian economy, according to the UK newspaper The Guardian.
EXTREMIST GROUPS
Since July 3, to date, more than 1,400 people, the majority Morsi supporters, have been killed by police and soldiers, according to France Presse. In response to this violent oppression, directed mainly against the Muslim Brotherhood and its followers, jihad insurgents have increased attacks against military forces. Although the violence has been concentrated in the Sinai Peninsula, there have also been several confrontations in Cairo. In the last 10 months since the coup d'état, extremist attacks have left more than 500 dead, according to Spanish newspaper El Mundo. The majority of attacks have been perpetrated by Ansar Beit al Maqdis.
The interim government has tried a heavy handed approach, to no avail. Al Sisi has promised more of the same. (Granma International news staff)
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| Field Marshal installed as president of Egypt. |
Seven times Egyptians have gone to the polls since the fall of Hosni Mubarak, in February of 2011, and voted in two presidential elections, the last of which was won by Army General Abdel Fatah al Sisi - head of the army at the time of the coup which deposed democratically elected president Mohamed Morsi, last July.
The 59 year old Al Sisi, enjoys much support among some sectors of Egyptian society, for having led the overthrow of Morsi. Al Sisi won more than 96% of the vote (24 million votes), against his sole rival, leftist politician Hamdín Sabbahi, who only achieved 3% (some 800,000 votes) in elections in which less than 50% of those eligible to vote participated. The Presidential inauguration is scheduled for June 7, according to Egyptian newspapers.
In the search for stability post Mubarak, Al Sisi must face various challenges and problems covering all aspects of daily life in Egypt, the biggest country in the Arab world, which has deteriorated over the last turbulent three years.
AN UNSTABLE ECONOMY
Repairing the country’s economy will be the new government’s most difficult challenge, given the current situation. The fiscal deficit and public debt have spiraled from 2011 to date, reaching 14% and almost 100% of The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), respectively. Foreign investment diminished due to political instability and insecurity. One quarter (25.2%) of the population lives below the poverty line; unemployment is approximately 13%, of which 70% are between the ages of 15 and 29.
"These two socially explosive problems are among the main issues which ignited popular revolt against Mubarak, and both have gotten worse in the last three years," warned Cairo economist Mohammed Samhouri, in a report published in the online newspaper Sada.
To make matters worse, instability and insecurity have damaged the tourist industry (which accounts for 11.3% of the GDP and provides 12.5% of employment) to the extent that 2013 was described by the government as the "worst year (for the industry) in the recent history." What is more, since Morsi’s defeat, a significant portion of the little money Egypt has comes from its allies in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. What Egypt is providing in exchange for this financial assistance (some 20 billion dollars in the last 10 months), and how long it will last, is still unknown.
SUBSIDIES VS. SUPPORT
Any long term economic solution implies some sort of cut in the numerous state subsidies, primarily to bread and fuel, which account for almost one third of the national budget.
Writing in the Australian newspaper The Sydney Morning Herald, Adel Abdel Ghafar, an expert in Arab issues at the Australian National University, commented, "Any cuts to subsidies will be politically costly and require a social consensus, which currently seems impossible to achieve."
ARMY INTERESTS
Although popular, having the powerful military on his side does not ensure Al Sisi a promising future. The institution has its own economic empire and any reform could affect its interests, which encompass 40% of the total Egyptian economy, according to the UK newspaper The Guardian.
EXTREMIST GROUPS
Since July 3, to date, more than 1,400 people, the majority Morsi supporters, have been killed by police and soldiers, according to France Presse. In response to this violent oppression, directed mainly against the Muslim Brotherhood and its followers, jihad insurgents have increased attacks against military forces. Although the violence has been concentrated in the Sinai Peninsula, there have also been several confrontations in Cairo. In the last 10 months since the coup d'état, extremist attacks have left more than 500 dead, according to Spanish newspaper El Mundo. The majority of attacks have been perpetrated by Ansar Beit al Maqdis.
The interim government has tried a heavy handed approach, to no avail. Al Sisi has promised more of the same. (Granma International news staff)
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