Former Bishop Fernando Lugo, 56, has achieved victory for his left-center coalition, the Patriotic Alliance for Change, against the ruling Colorado Party in Paraguay.
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By James Painter
BBC Latin America analyst
For the first time in more than 60 years, Paraguay may well have a president from an opposition party.
The Colorados have been in power since 1947, the longest-serving party in continuous rule anywhere in the world.
The country's ruler for 34 years and military strongman, Alfredo Stroessner, used the Colorados as his personal electoral machine. Most Paraguayans have never known any other governing party.
But now there is a real chance of change, as the Colorados are split with one large faction not supporting their official candidate.
Whoever wins the most votes in Sunday's election becomes president as there is no second round.
The three main candidates make up an unusual trio: a former bishop, the first woman candidate in Paraguay's history, and a former general who served time in prison for trying to stage a coup.
FERNANDO LUGO
Former bishop Fernando Lugo has attracted the most attention. He heads a coalition called the Patriotic Alliance for Change, made up of several parties and organisations. His running candidate is from the traditional opposition party, the Authentic Liberal Radical Party.
Fernando Lugo advocates land reform
Born in 1951, Mr Lugo became a priest in 1977, and served as a missionary in Ecuador for five years.
In 1992 he was appointed head of the Divine Word order in Paraguay, was ordained a bishop in 1994, and then served for 10 years as the bishop of the poor region of San Pedro.
There his support for landless peasants earned him the reputation of being "the bishop for the poor".
He came to national prominence in March 2006 when he helped lead a big opposition rally in the capital, Asuncion.
He resigned from the priesthood in December that year. But the Vatican refused to accept this, arguing that serving as a priest was a lifetime commitment and instead suspended him from his duties.
The Paraguayan constitution prohibits ministers of any faith from standing as a political candidate.
Mr Lugo is keen to present himself as a moderate. He advocates land reform and other measures to tackle poverty, but has distanced himself from the region's more radical left-wing leaders like President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and President Evo Morales of Bolivia.
Even though he says he does not consider himself a leftist, Mr Lugo does represent a major challenge to Paraguay's fossilised and unequal social structure.
His most prominent pledge is to renegotiate the terms of the country's two huge hydro-electric projects.
In particular he wants Brazil to pay Paraguay a lot more money for the electricity it buys from their jointly-owned Itaipu dam, the world's biggest hydroelectric plant. He says he will take Brazil to the World Court in The Hague if necessary.
Leftist confident of Paraguay win
By Jude Webber in Asunción
Financial Times
April 21 2008 00:16
Exit polls from Paraguay’s presidential elections predicted victory for former bishop Fernando Lugo, but the ruling Colorado Party – the world’s longest ruling party, in power for 61 years - indicated it would not go without a fight.
Four exit polls conducted for television stations all put Mr Lugo ahead, with between 40 and 43 per cent of the vote, with 36 to 37 per cent for ruling Colorado Party candidate Blanca Ovelar. Former general Lino Oviedo was trailing in third with around 16 per cent.
Preliminary official results, based on a quick count of about 10 per cent of the 14,305 voting tables nationwide, put Mr Lugo ahead with 37.4 per cent, Ms Ovelar 34.3 per cent and Mr Oviedo 21.6 per cent. Paraguayan electoral authorities were due to release preliminary results during the evening but if the race is very close or contested, they have until May 16 to announce the winner. Turnout appeared to have been very high and international observers reported isolated irregularities but no signs of large-scale fraud.
”It’s a very big difference … the Colorado Party isn’t going to want to lose but with such a strong result, it’s going to be very hard for them to do anything else,” historian Lus Verón told the Financial Times.
But Ms Ovelar, a former education minister close to outgoing President Nicanor Duarte Frutos, told a news conference she had different exit polls which predicted the result was too close to call. ”We are going to wait for (official preliminary results) with absolute faith in our triumph,” she said.
With a red, white and blue Paraguayan flag on his shoulders and his traditional clenched-fist salute, a jubilant Lugo greeted cheering supporter at his campaign headquarters but made no immediate comment.
Mr Lugo, who heads a disparate alliance of leftists and liberals, plays down comparisons with radical Latin American populists in other resource-rich nations, like Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez or Bolivia’s Evo Morales. But poor Paraguay supplies a fifth of Brazil’s power and he has vowed to charge higher prices for electricity from their jointly owned Itaipú hydroelectric dam, and conduct a sweeping land reform in the world’s number four soybean exporter.
Polls show support for Ms Ovelar, had risen in recent weeks. For many Paraguayans, the party is synonymous with the state and it is believed to have a hard core of diehard supporters making up more than a quarter of the 2.9m registered voters.
Paraguayans also elect congressional representatives on Sunday and Mr Duarte Frutos is expected to win a commanding position in the Senate. If Mr Lugo’s victory is confirmed, a fractured Congress will be a hurdle to his ability to govern.
Paraguay remains one of Latin America’s poorest countries despite a soybean boom and hydroelectric resources that make it the world’s third-biggest electricity exporter in a region where energy is scarce.
A third of the 6.7m population lives in poverty and about 1.5m have emigrated in search of better prospects abroad. Meanwhile, development has been held back by a vast underground economy, entrenched corruption and a murky triple frontier area bordering Brazil and Argentina considered a haven for money laundering.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
Ruling party ousted in Paraguay
By Jude Webber in Asunción
April 21 2008 02:56
Financial Times
Former bishop Fernando Lugo won a resounding victory in presidential elections in Paraguay, dealing a crushing blow to the world’s longest ruling party and ushering in a new era after 61 years of one-party government.
With preliminary official results pointing to a 10-point lead for the bearded ”bishop of the poor”, ruling Colorado Party candidate Blanca Ovelar conceded defeat.
Overjoyed Lugo supporters, many with young children in their arms, poured into the streets, waving red, white and blue Paraguayan flags, setting off firecrackers, singing and dancing. Cars clogged the streets, horns blaring, amid a jubilant mood as fears of widespread fraud by a party desperate to cling to power proved unfounded.
”We have written a new page in the history of national politics,” Mr Lugo, 56, told a news conference, beaming and making his traditional clenched-fist salute.
Mr Lugo, who heads a disparate alliance of leftists and liberals, plays down comparisons with radical Latin American populists in other resource-rich nations, like Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez or Bolivia’s Evo Morales, and sees himself more in the mould of Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva or Chile’s Michelle Bachelet.
But Paraguay, the world’s third-biggest electricity exporter, supplies a fifth of Brazil’s power and Mr Lugo has vowed to win higher prices for electricity from their jointly owned Itaipú hydroelectric dam, the largest such plant in the world.
He has also promised to conduct a sweeping land reform in the world’s number four soyabean exporter – something that has spooked the large producers of Brazilian origin known as ”brasiguayos” who dominate the soy industry.
So far, he has won few concessions from Brazil on Itaipú.
He will be under heavy pressure to deliver on his promises of improving the lives of Paraguay’s poor and wiping out the corruption for which the country is best known. Paraguay remains one of Latin America’s poorest countries despite the soyabean boom and its hydroelectric resources.
PARAGUAY
One in three of Paraguay’s 6.7 million people lives in poverty and about 1.5 million have emigrated. The economy grew 6.4 per cent in 2007, the highest in two decades, but GDP per capita is $4,000. The soy boom helped boost 2007 exports 77 percent, but a vast informal economy and entrenched corruption leave Paraguay 11th from the bottom in the world competitiveness stakes.
Lugo – Bishop of the poor
Bespectacled, bearded, with a clenched-fist salute and easy smile, Mr Lugo, 56, has been a teacher, a missionary in Ecuador and a bishop. A progressive in the Church, he quit his ministry in 2006 after leading a large anti-government march. The Vatican refused his request for layman status and suspended him. His disparate coalition could prove fragile.
Ovelar – Continuity candidate
A former education minister and mother of three, Ms Ovelar, 50, is considered honest and competent but in the pocket of the outgoing president, whom many believe will seek to retain influence. Her unconvincing win in the primaries left her ill-placed to reunite the party or enact reform.
Oviedo – Still a contender
The retired general and keen horserider, 64, commands strong support in rural communities where he campaigns in Paraguay’s Guaraní language and cannot be ruled out yet. He says the sedition charge and civil suits against him for the murder of a vice president in 1999 and the deaths of seven demonstrators were politically motivated.
A third of the 6.7m population lives in poverty and about 1.5m have emigrated in search of better prospects abroad. Meanwhile, development has been held back by a vast underground economy, entrenched corruption and a murky triple frontier area bordering Brazil and Argentina considered a haven for money laundering.
Mr Lugo acknowledged that his eight- month-old alliance had suffered ”fragility and error” and his challenge will be to navigate a fractured Congress where he will be forced to forge alliances. Outgoing president Nicanor Duarte Frutos is expected to win a commanding position in the Senate, which could prove a hurdle to his ability to govern.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
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