NATO Summit to Focus on Afghanistan

Afghanistan civilians protest the US-NATO occupation of their country. In this photo residents of Paktia protests the killing of two neighbors by the imperialist occupationist forces., a photo by Pan-African News Wire File Photos on Flickr.

News Analysis: Chicago summit to focus on Afghanistan, sharing expertise among NATO members

English.news.cn 2012-05-19 09:41:28

LONDON, May 19 (Xinhua) -- The chief focus of the upcoming NATO summit in the American city of Chicago will be on Afghanistan, experts say.

The summit takes place on Sunday and Monday against the backdrop of the 2014 deadline for withdrawal from Afghanistan by NATO/ISAF combat troops.

Also weighing heavily on the minds of heads of state and leaders will be the effect of the financial crisis on their budgets, and its squeeze on military spending, and the worries of a collapse in the Euro.

The increasing role of Afghan forces in the country, and the opportunity that gives for NATO troops to be withdrawn, is an issue already settled and leaders will be looking for reassurance that they can keep to this target.

Alexander Nicoll, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, said that the 2014 timetable was agreed among leaders and it would be highly significant if agreement were reached to bring it forward, something U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta has campaigned for.

"For most leaders the issue is already settled; they are going to end the conflict by the end of 2014, and it means that mentally they can move on, although there are still a lot of challenges in Afghanistan for them to deal with," Nicoll said.

Alexis Crow, of the policy institute Chatham House in London, told Xinhua, that last November's Istanbul Process seeking greater regional cooperation over Afghanistan was being championed by NATO member Turkey, as well as the Persian Gulf nation of Qatar.

They were focusing on the era after NATO troops leave, and the legacy that the United States and Britain, primarily, will leave behind.

"The Turks and Qataris are emphasizing a political solution which, for a number of reasons, the Brits and Americans cannot," said Crow.

"Obama will be looking for clear solutions to complex problems; most likely securitized military solutions. He is likely to emphasize the need for the withdrawal of combat troops," she said.

President Obama's surprise visit to Kabul recently did not involve anyone from the State Department, "which just goes to show how militarized the solution is," said Crow.

The possible withdrawal of 3,300 French combat troops currently in Afghanistan, raises the question if this action would be destabilizing for NATO and its Afghan policy.

New French President Francois Hollande is going to be less Atlanticist than Sarkozy, said Crow, and it's going to be a much more Europeanized France.

Nicoll said that there is an agreement to be reached on what foreign forces will be in Afghanistan after 2014, which requires an agreement with the Afghan government.

"I am sure all Western governments will be focused on that," said Nicoll.

They will also need to discuss funding for the security forces in Afghanistan after 2014. The burden is likely to be far too great for the Afghan economy to bear without support.

"SMART DEFENSE" TO SAVE MONEY, IMPROVE CAPABILITIES

The second main item on the summit agenda is the Smart Defense Initiative, which is designed to best manage the cuts currently being made in budgets by member nations by promoting consultation and expertise sharing.

Nicoll said that Smart Defense was practical and possible, and with more effective cooperation countries across the alliance could get better value for money.

"The question is whether you can get over the political hurdles to doing that. That does require strong political commitment from leaders at summits, and then it requires determined implementation afterwards," he said.

Lisa Aronsson, of the Royal United Services Institute, a London think-tank, said none of the nations want to lessen their political ambitions, and most nations are still spending a lot on military compared with other parts of the world.

"The strategy is to spend more efficiently, and to deliver more deployable forces," she said.

Crow believed that there is the possibility that Smart Defense could see cooperation between partner nations with different visions -- like a vision for the Scandinavian nations, another for Eastern Europeans, and yet another for the Anglo-French.

Nicoll believed the visit of Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari to the NATO summit could herald a thawing in relations with the United States and possible reopen the southern supply route to Afghanistan, currently closed by Pakistan until the U.S. apologizes for killing Pakistani troops in the country.

With withdrawal of all combat troops by 2014 along with their equipment the continued closure of this route is a "major logistical problem" for ISAF forces, said Nicoll.

Aronsson said Zardari's attendance demonstrates the importance of the Pakistan relationship to the United States and NATO, despite the fallout over the killing of Pakistani troops by the Americans, and the killing of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden on Pakistani soil.

"There is still an understanding on both sides that it is a necessary relationship, and NATO understands there cannot be any transition and withdrawal and sustainable Afghanistan without Pakistan being a part of the narrative," said Aronsson.