Escalating Global Violence, Terrorism
Written by Joe Adiorho
Nigerian Guardian
LAST month witnessed a significant deterioration of the security situation, compared to the previous month in most of the trouble spots all over the World, including South Asia (Pakistan and India), and East Africa (South Sudan and Kenya). Nigeria was almost engulfed in an orgy of violence in the North-east of the country, as the terror group, Boko Haram, operating in the region, seemed to have woken up from sleep to unleash a fresh war of terror on the people.
Reports emanating from the zone speak of guns and suicide bomb attacks in different towns and villages leaving scores of death in its trail. Eye witnesses talk of bodies lying strewn on the streets of a key north-eastern Nigerian town of Baga following an assault by militant Islamists. Almost the entire town had been torched and while adjourning towns and villages were not spared.
Musa Alhaji Bukar, a senior government official in the area, said that fleeing residents told him that Baga, which had a population of about 10,000, was now “virtually non-existent. He raised fears that some 2,000 had been killed in the raids, but other reports put the number in the hundreds.
In Maiduguri, Borno state, at least 19 people were reported killed and several injured by a bomb strapped to a girl said to be about ten years old by the police. Correspondents say that all the signs point to the militant Islamist Boko Haram group. They have been fighting to establish an Islamic caliphate in the north-eastern states of Borno, Yobe and Adamawa, which have borne the worst violence in their five year insurgency.
Also the forthcoming election is contributing its quota to the spate of violence in the country as reports of shooting on a campaign ground in Rivers State and burning of President Goodluck Jonathans campaign buses in Jos, Plateau State appear to b escalating the crisis.
Painfully, this violent conduct is almost touching on many countries across the globe. CrisisWatch, the Monthly Conflict Situation Report of Stratepol Consultants Inc, says that there is a risk of increased violence in the coming month in Sudan, where major offensives are anticipated on the heels of a failure in the peace talks. In Sri Lanka, in the context of the January 8 elections and in Haiti, where the current president could rule by decree unless parliament’s mandate, due to expire on January 12, is extended.
In South Asia, both Pakistan and India experienced severe violent attacks. The deadliest ever attack by the Pakistani Taliban’s Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) took place on December 16 on a military-run school in Peshawar, killing at least 148, including 132 children. The military retaliated by escalating operations against militants in the tribal belt. The government introduced counter-terrorism “National Action Plan,” including the establishment of military-run courts, which would require a constitutional amendment undermining fundamental rights and due process. It also lifted a moratorium on the death penalty, leading to the execution of several non-TTP militants allegedly responsible for past attacks on the military.
Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan have been largely characterised by mutual mistrust devised through a narrow security prism. While it will require considerable effort to end deep-seated animosity, both countries share close ethnic, linguistic, religious and economic ties. Longstanding Afghan migration to the territories that now compose Pakistan makes them an integral part of Pakistani society.
The Afghan President, Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, has offered to expand bilateral ties, providing Islamabad fresh opportunities to improve the relationship. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has responded positively, but the Pakistani military and civilian leadership’s preferences toward Kabul are diverging further as Afghanistan’s transition draws closer.
Sharif’s top priority, stabilising a faltering economy, will be elusive in the absence of security and hampered by an unstable neighbor, hence his government has reached out to Afghanistan, hoping to reduce bilateral tensions and contribute to post-transition Afghanistan’s stabilisation. The Pakistani military high command, however, continues to hedge its bets, either actively or tacitly supporting a resurgent insurgency, which threatens to undermine Afghanistan’s transition.
Pakistan’s interventionist policies are also undermining the peace at home. The Afghan insurgents are aligned with home-grown Pakistani tribal extremists, who in turn are part of a syndicate of sectarian, regional and transnational jihadi groups. With the support of their Afghan counterparts, Pakistani tribal extremists are challenging the state’s writ, particularly in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Khyber Pakhtun-khwa (KPK) province, bordering on Afghanistan. Military-led initiatives to counter such threats, based on appeasement deals or heavy handed-military operations against Pakistani Taliban factions, have proved ineffective.
And in India’s north east, militant Bodo separatists killed over 70 people in several attacks across Assam state on December 23, 2014. The attacks, which reportedly targeted Adivasi settlers and came in response to several Bodo deaths during the army’s ongoing counter-insurgency operation in the area, prompted retaliatory vigilante assaults on Bodos and an intensification of the military campaign.
In Sri Lanka, as the race tightened ahead of the January 8, 2015, presidential election between joint opposition candidate Maithripala Sirisena and President Mahinda Rajapaksa, an increasingly volatile campaign environment, including numerous attacks on opposition activists and rallies, raised concerns about the possibility of serious election related violence.
Sri Lanka’s presidential election looks set to defy the predictions of many, and might turn out true competition. As such, the polls threaten risks and promise opportunities for long-term stability and post-war reconciliation. The sudden emergence of a strong opposition candidate caught many, including President Rajapaksa, by surprise. Running on a platform of constitutional reforms to limit executive power and restore independent oversight bodies, the opposition coalition led by former Rajapaksa colleague, Sirisena, seems set to pose the first strong challenge to Rajapaksa in nearly a decade. Amid a restrictive climate for civil society, Tamils and religious minorities, the risk of serious election-related violence might close international attention and active efforts to prevent political instability, including the possibility of extra-constitutional means by Rajapaksa to retain power.
In the Horn of Africa, both Sudan and South Sudan saw serious armed clashes. In South Sudan, peace talks between warring parties ground to a halt. Both sides remain at odds over the details of a power-sharing deal, in particular, the powers that Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO) leader, Riek Machar, would have as premier of a transitional government. Clashes between the opposing forces continued despite the recommitment to a cessation of hostilities agreement, including in Nasir town, where fighting between government and SPLA-IO forces is ongoing. There is a risk attacks would escalate into major offensives if no political agreement is reached. Peace negotiations in Sudan floundered as the government continued to reject a comprehensive approach to talks with rebel groups in Darfur, Blue Nile and South Kordofan. Violence is already on the rise, and major offensives are anticipated if the talks fail. The government has stepped up pressure on the United Nations (UN) presence, expelling two UN officials in late December.
In another front, Somalia’s Al-Shabaab militants continued to step up attacks in Kenya. On December 2, 36 non-Muslim workers were killed at a quarry near Mandera, prompting hundreds to flee the town. Thirteen were injured and one killed in an attack by suspected Islamist militants on a club in Wajir. The government’s clampdown continued, as President Uhuru Kenyatta signed into law, an anti-terror bill that is widely contested and seen by many as draconian.
Elsewhere in Africa, government rule was challenged in both Gambia and Gabon prompting a crackdown. In Gambia, the military foiled a coup attempt against President Yahya Jammeh. Three coup plotters were reportedly killed as the military repulsed the December 30 attack on the presidential palace in the capital, Banjul. Dozens of military personnel and civilians were subsequently arrested, and according to Gambian official sources, a weapons cache found. Jammeh, who was abroad at the time of the coup attempt, has accused dissidents based in the U.S., United Kingdom (UK) and Germany of masterminding the attack and alleged suspected foreign support.
The government in Gabon violently cracked down on protesters demanding the resignation of President Ali Bongo Ondimba. On December 20, protesters clashed with security forces, officials reported one killed, but protesters suggested at least three. Several opposition leaders were detained.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, political crisis deepened in both Venezuela and Haiti. In Venezuela, President Nicolás Maduro’s government pushed through a number of appointments to key institutions with a simple majority vote, installing government allies in the judiciary and other branches of state. In doing so, it violated a number of legal and constitutional requirements designed to ensure that nominees are impartial and of good repute. The opposition Democratic Unity, ‘Mesa de la Unidad Democrática,’ (MUD), alliance abstained in all the appointments in protest.
Haiti’s political crisis over its long-overdue elections intensified, with mass protests demanding the resignation of President Michel Martelly even after Prime Minister Laurent Lamothe resigned, and called for polls to take place. There were fears of further violence with parliament’s mandate set to expire on January 12, leaving Haiti without a functioning government and meaning Martelly would rule by decree. On December 30, Martelly reached a deal with the senate and the chamber of deputies to extend their mandate, however, lawmakers still need to approve the deal and agree on an acceptable provisional electoral council.
In Russia’s North Caucasus region and in Libya, the situation deteriorated in December. In the North Caucasus, 15 policemen, two civilians and eleven militants were killed, and 36 policemen injured, in a shootout between rebel gunmen and police in the Chechen capital, Grozny, in the early hours of December 4. An Islamist group claimed responsibility for the raid. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov announced that relatives of militants responsible would be punished. Sixteen houses belonging to insurgents’ relatives were later destroyed. Meanwhile, the leader of the Caucasus Emirate’s Dagestan network and several insurgency leaders from Dagestan and Chechnya pledged loyalty to Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
In Libya, multiple new frontlines emerged across the country, with heavy clashes in the south, west and east between the military allies of the country’s two rival parliaments. The fighting deepened the conflict between the two political bodies. UN-sponsored political dialogue was again postponed due to disagreements over participants.
In a positive note, however, there was progress both in Colombia and Cuba. In Colombia, peace talks with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia—People’s Army ‘ Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia’ (FARC) emerged from the crisis triggered by the kidnapping of an army general in November. The guerrillas declared an unprecedented, indefinite unilateral ceasefire, which entered into force on December 20. President Juan Manuel Santos of Colombia welcomed the ceasefire, but rejected demands for third party verification and said that security forces would continue operations.
There are questions about sustainability, but if the ceasefire holds, it will help break the ground for ending decades of conflict. Expectations that exploratory talks with the National Liberation Army ‘Ejército de Liberación Nacional’ (ELN) could finally develop into formal negotiations are rising, after the country’s second guerrilla group said it would make a “special announcement” in early January.
December saw a dramatic improvement in relations between Cuba and the U.S., with the U.S. announcement that it would normalise ties with the island. The possibility of an end to the decades-long U.S. embargo on Cuba is set to transform political relations across the hemisphere.
Nigerian Guardian
LAST month witnessed a significant deterioration of the security situation, compared to the previous month in most of the trouble spots all over the World, including South Asia (Pakistan and India), and East Africa (South Sudan and Kenya). Nigeria was almost engulfed in an orgy of violence in the North-east of the country, as the terror group, Boko Haram, operating in the region, seemed to have woken up from sleep to unleash a fresh war of terror on the people.
Reports emanating from the zone speak of guns and suicide bomb attacks in different towns and villages leaving scores of death in its trail. Eye witnesses talk of bodies lying strewn on the streets of a key north-eastern Nigerian town of Baga following an assault by militant Islamists. Almost the entire town had been torched and while adjourning towns and villages were not spared.
Musa Alhaji Bukar, a senior government official in the area, said that fleeing residents told him that Baga, which had a population of about 10,000, was now “virtually non-existent. He raised fears that some 2,000 had been killed in the raids, but other reports put the number in the hundreds.
In Maiduguri, Borno state, at least 19 people were reported killed and several injured by a bomb strapped to a girl said to be about ten years old by the police. Correspondents say that all the signs point to the militant Islamist Boko Haram group. They have been fighting to establish an Islamic caliphate in the north-eastern states of Borno, Yobe and Adamawa, which have borne the worst violence in their five year insurgency.
Also the forthcoming election is contributing its quota to the spate of violence in the country as reports of shooting on a campaign ground in Rivers State and burning of President Goodluck Jonathans campaign buses in Jos, Plateau State appear to b escalating the crisis.
Painfully, this violent conduct is almost touching on many countries across the globe. CrisisWatch, the Monthly Conflict Situation Report of Stratepol Consultants Inc, says that there is a risk of increased violence in the coming month in Sudan, where major offensives are anticipated on the heels of a failure in the peace talks. In Sri Lanka, in the context of the January 8 elections and in Haiti, where the current president could rule by decree unless parliament’s mandate, due to expire on January 12, is extended.
In South Asia, both Pakistan and India experienced severe violent attacks. The deadliest ever attack by the Pakistani Taliban’s Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) took place on December 16 on a military-run school in Peshawar, killing at least 148, including 132 children. The military retaliated by escalating operations against militants in the tribal belt. The government introduced counter-terrorism “National Action Plan,” including the establishment of military-run courts, which would require a constitutional amendment undermining fundamental rights and due process. It also lifted a moratorium on the death penalty, leading to the execution of several non-TTP militants allegedly responsible for past attacks on the military.
Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan have been largely characterised by mutual mistrust devised through a narrow security prism. While it will require considerable effort to end deep-seated animosity, both countries share close ethnic, linguistic, religious and economic ties. Longstanding Afghan migration to the territories that now compose Pakistan makes them an integral part of Pakistani society.
The Afghan President, Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, has offered to expand bilateral ties, providing Islamabad fresh opportunities to improve the relationship. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has responded positively, but the Pakistani military and civilian leadership’s preferences toward Kabul are diverging further as Afghanistan’s transition draws closer.
Sharif’s top priority, stabilising a faltering economy, will be elusive in the absence of security and hampered by an unstable neighbor, hence his government has reached out to Afghanistan, hoping to reduce bilateral tensions and contribute to post-transition Afghanistan’s stabilisation. The Pakistani military high command, however, continues to hedge its bets, either actively or tacitly supporting a resurgent insurgency, which threatens to undermine Afghanistan’s transition.
Pakistan’s interventionist policies are also undermining the peace at home. The Afghan insurgents are aligned with home-grown Pakistani tribal extremists, who in turn are part of a syndicate of sectarian, regional and transnational jihadi groups. With the support of their Afghan counterparts, Pakistani tribal extremists are challenging the state’s writ, particularly in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Khyber Pakhtun-khwa (KPK) province, bordering on Afghanistan. Military-led initiatives to counter such threats, based on appeasement deals or heavy handed-military operations against Pakistani Taliban factions, have proved ineffective.
And in India’s north east, militant Bodo separatists killed over 70 people in several attacks across Assam state on December 23, 2014. The attacks, which reportedly targeted Adivasi settlers and came in response to several Bodo deaths during the army’s ongoing counter-insurgency operation in the area, prompted retaliatory vigilante assaults on Bodos and an intensification of the military campaign.
In Sri Lanka, as the race tightened ahead of the January 8, 2015, presidential election between joint opposition candidate Maithripala Sirisena and President Mahinda Rajapaksa, an increasingly volatile campaign environment, including numerous attacks on opposition activists and rallies, raised concerns about the possibility of serious election related violence.
Sri Lanka’s presidential election looks set to defy the predictions of many, and might turn out true competition. As such, the polls threaten risks and promise opportunities for long-term stability and post-war reconciliation. The sudden emergence of a strong opposition candidate caught many, including President Rajapaksa, by surprise. Running on a platform of constitutional reforms to limit executive power and restore independent oversight bodies, the opposition coalition led by former Rajapaksa colleague, Sirisena, seems set to pose the first strong challenge to Rajapaksa in nearly a decade. Amid a restrictive climate for civil society, Tamils and religious minorities, the risk of serious election-related violence might close international attention and active efforts to prevent political instability, including the possibility of extra-constitutional means by Rajapaksa to retain power.
In the Horn of Africa, both Sudan and South Sudan saw serious armed clashes. In South Sudan, peace talks between warring parties ground to a halt. Both sides remain at odds over the details of a power-sharing deal, in particular, the powers that Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO) leader, Riek Machar, would have as premier of a transitional government. Clashes between the opposing forces continued despite the recommitment to a cessation of hostilities agreement, including in Nasir town, where fighting between government and SPLA-IO forces is ongoing. There is a risk attacks would escalate into major offensives if no political agreement is reached. Peace negotiations in Sudan floundered as the government continued to reject a comprehensive approach to talks with rebel groups in Darfur, Blue Nile and South Kordofan. Violence is already on the rise, and major offensives are anticipated if the talks fail. The government has stepped up pressure on the United Nations (UN) presence, expelling two UN officials in late December.
In another front, Somalia’s Al-Shabaab militants continued to step up attacks in Kenya. On December 2, 36 non-Muslim workers were killed at a quarry near Mandera, prompting hundreds to flee the town. Thirteen were injured and one killed in an attack by suspected Islamist militants on a club in Wajir. The government’s clampdown continued, as President Uhuru Kenyatta signed into law, an anti-terror bill that is widely contested and seen by many as draconian.
Elsewhere in Africa, government rule was challenged in both Gambia and Gabon prompting a crackdown. In Gambia, the military foiled a coup attempt against President Yahya Jammeh. Three coup plotters were reportedly killed as the military repulsed the December 30 attack on the presidential palace in the capital, Banjul. Dozens of military personnel and civilians were subsequently arrested, and according to Gambian official sources, a weapons cache found. Jammeh, who was abroad at the time of the coup attempt, has accused dissidents based in the U.S., United Kingdom (UK) and Germany of masterminding the attack and alleged suspected foreign support.
The government in Gabon violently cracked down on protesters demanding the resignation of President Ali Bongo Ondimba. On December 20, protesters clashed with security forces, officials reported one killed, but protesters suggested at least three. Several opposition leaders were detained.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, political crisis deepened in both Venezuela and Haiti. In Venezuela, President Nicolás Maduro’s government pushed through a number of appointments to key institutions with a simple majority vote, installing government allies in the judiciary and other branches of state. In doing so, it violated a number of legal and constitutional requirements designed to ensure that nominees are impartial and of good repute. The opposition Democratic Unity, ‘Mesa de la Unidad Democrática,’ (MUD), alliance abstained in all the appointments in protest.
Haiti’s political crisis over its long-overdue elections intensified, with mass protests demanding the resignation of President Michel Martelly even after Prime Minister Laurent Lamothe resigned, and called for polls to take place. There were fears of further violence with parliament’s mandate set to expire on January 12, leaving Haiti without a functioning government and meaning Martelly would rule by decree. On December 30, Martelly reached a deal with the senate and the chamber of deputies to extend their mandate, however, lawmakers still need to approve the deal and agree on an acceptable provisional electoral council.
In Russia’s North Caucasus region and in Libya, the situation deteriorated in December. In the North Caucasus, 15 policemen, two civilians and eleven militants were killed, and 36 policemen injured, in a shootout between rebel gunmen and police in the Chechen capital, Grozny, in the early hours of December 4. An Islamist group claimed responsibility for the raid. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov announced that relatives of militants responsible would be punished. Sixteen houses belonging to insurgents’ relatives were later destroyed. Meanwhile, the leader of the Caucasus Emirate’s Dagestan network and several insurgency leaders from Dagestan and Chechnya pledged loyalty to Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
In Libya, multiple new frontlines emerged across the country, with heavy clashes in the south, west and east between the military allies of the country’s two rival parliaments. The fighting deepened the conflict between the two political bodies. UN-sponsored political dialogue was again postponed due to disagreements over participants.
In a positive note, however, there was progress both in Colombia and Cuba. In Colombia, peace talks with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia—People’s Army ‘ Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia’ (FARC) emerged from the crisis triggered by the kidnapping of an army general in November. The guerrillas declared an unprecedented, indefinite unilateral ceasefire, which entered into force on December 20. President Juan Manuel Santos of Colombia welcomed the ceasefire, but rejected demands for third party verification and said that security forces would continue operations.
There are questions about sustainability, but if the ceasefire holds, it will help break the ground for ending decades of conflict. Expectations that exploratory talks with the National Liberation Army ‘Ejército de Liberación Nacional’ (ELN) could finally develop into formal negotiations are rising, after the country’s second guerrilla group said it would make a “special announcement” in early January.
December saw a dramatic improvement in relations between Cuba and the U.S., with the U.S. announcement that it would normalise ties with the island. The possibility of an end to the decades-long U.S. embargo on Cuba is set to transform political relations across the hemisphere.
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