Italy Ponders Military Intervention in Libya
But the carabinieri may not be marching into Tripoli just yet
May 5th 2016
ROME | Europe
NO COUNTRY has more to gain from ending the chaos in Libya than Italy, the former colonial power. Italy is the natural destination for migrants setting off from Libya—and an obvious target for Islamic State (IS) terrorists based there, who have repeatedly threatened Rome. After the first IS threats in early 2015, Roberta Pinotti, the defence minister, boldly declared that her troops were ready to lead a UN force into the anarchic north African state. But the Italians have been nuancing that statement ever since, and it is unclear just how far they are prepared to go.
After a surge in March, the number of migrants leaving Libya dropped last month. But even if it stays at its level of 2015, Italy can expect more than 150,000 new arrivals this year. The migration crisis and the terrorist menace overlap. “IS is adept at making money out of stuff that crosses its territory, whether it is oil or trucks or people,” says Tom Keatinge of the Royal United Services Institute. Extracting “taxes” from people-smugglers is easy when you have guns and a homicidal reputation.
IS’s base is at Sirte, halfway along the coast, but it also has a presence around the western city of Sabratha, where many smugglers are said to be operating. American intelligence estimates that IS forces in Libya have doubled in the past 12-18 months, to around 5,000 fighters. The commander of American forces in Africa, General David Rodriguez, said last month that IS had designs on Europe, but that for the moment they remained “aspirational”.
Italy’s colonial record alone would make it a target. It began occupying modern-day Libya after the first world war, ultimately withdrawing in 1947. But after independence it forged strong economic links, and these survived the chaos that followed the overthrow of Libya’s Revolutionary Pan-Africanist leader, Muammar Qaddafi, in 2011. ENI, Italy’s state-controlled oil company, gets about 20% of its production from Libya; recently the flow surpassed that under Qaddafi. Libyan gas exports to Italy have doubled in the past five years and now represent around 12% of Italian imports.
A recurrent fear in Rome is that, if Italy fails to take the lead in any future Western initiative, its former colony could fall under French or British commercial influence. Yet public opinion is wary of military action: the most recent poll found barely a third of Italians would back it.
Such pressures explain why last year’s gung-ho posture has been dropped. Ms Pinotti’s initial offer to lead an intervention force implied that Italy would contribute at least 5,000 troops. Since then, however, conditions have been added: any intervention must be supported, not just by parliament and the UN, but also by a credible government in Libya.
In the meantime, America has launched limited air strikes against IS positions, while France and Britain have deployed special forces. But it was not until January that Italy secretly gave America permission to use Sicily’s Sigonella air base for armed drone flights (supposedly for defensive missions), and not until March that Italian officials said Rome would dispatch its own special forces.
A UN-sponsored Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA), led by a former housing official, Fayez al-Serraj, has so far succeeded beyond expectations. It now controls ten of the ministries in the capital, Tripoli. Mr Serraj, whose father was one of the founders of modern Libya, has made a televised address to the nation and twice staged successful walkabouts in Tripoli without any obvious protection.
The GNA aims to replace two rival administrations. One, in Tripoli, resigned after Mr Serraj’s arrival. But the other, in Tobruk, has yet to endorse him. What to do if Mr Serraj’s audacious bid for power fails will be a dilemma for all his backers. But for Italy the decision will be agonising.
May 5th 2016
ROME | Europe
NO COUNTRY has more to gain from ending the chaos in Libya than Italy, the former colonial power. Italy is the natural destination for migrants setting off from Libya—and an obvious target for Islamic State (IS) terrorists based there, who have repeatedly threatened Rome. After the first IS threats in early 2015, Roberta Pinotti, the defence minister, boldly declared that her troops were ready to lead a UN force into the anarchic north African state. But the Italians have been nuancing that statement ever since, and it is unclear just how far they are prepared to go.
After a surge in March, the number of migrants leaving Libya dropped last month. But even if it stays at its level of 2015, Italy can expect more than 150,000 new arrivals this year. The migration crisis and the terrorist menace overlap. “IS is adept at making money out of stuff that crosses its territory, whether it is oil or trucks or people,” says Tom Keatinge of the Royal United Services Institute. Extracting “taxes” from people-smugglers is easy when you have guns and a homicidal reputation.
IS’s base is at Sirte, halfway along the coast, but it also has a presence around the western city of Sabratha, where many smugglers are said to be operating. American intelligence estimates that IS forces in Libya have doubled in the past 12-18 months, to around 5,000 fighters. The commander of American forces in Africa, General David Rodriguez, said last month that IS had designs on Europe, but that for the moment they remained “aspirational”.
Italy’s colonial record alone would make it a target. It began occupying modern-day Libya after the first world war, ultimately withdrawing in 1947. But after independence it forged strong economic links, and these survived the chaos that followed the overthrow of Libya’s Revolutionary Pan-Africanist leader, Muammar Qaddafi, in 2011. ENI, Italy’s state-controlled oil company, gets about 20% of its production from Libya; recently the flow surpassed that under Qaddafi. Libyan gas exports to Italy have doubled in the past five years and now represent around 12% of Italian imports.
A recurrent fear in Rome is that, if Italy fails to take the lead in any future Western initiative, its former colony could fall under French or British commercial influence. Yet public opinion is wary of military action: the most recent poll found barely a third of Italians would back it.
Such pressures explain why last year’s gung-ho posture has been dropped. Ms Pinotti’s initial offer to lead an intervention force implied that Italy would contribute at least 5,000 troops. Since then, however, conditions have been added: any intervention must be supported, not just by parliament and the UN, but also by a credible government in Libya.
In the meantime, America has launched limited air strikes against IS positions, while France and Britain have deployed special forces. But it was not until January that Italy secretly gave America permission to use Sicily’s Sigonella air base for armed drone flights (supposedly for defensive missions), and not until March that Italian officials said Rome would dispatch its own special forces.
A UN-sponsored Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA), led by a former housing official, Fayez al-Serraj, has so far succeeded beyond expectations. It now controls ten of the ministries in the capital, Tripoli. Mr Serraj, whose father was one of the founders of modern Libya, has made a televised address to the nation and twice staged successful walkabouts in Tripoli without any obvious protection.
The GNA aims to replace two rival administrations. One, in Tripoli, resigned after Mr Serraj’s arrival. But the other, in Tobruk, has yet to endorse him. What to do if Mr Serraj’s audacious bid for power fails will be a dilemma for all his backers. But for Italy the decision will be agonising.
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