Iran Expecting Imminent Major US Assault

By Al Mayadeen English

18 Oct 2026 15:38

Iran is on full alert amid assessments of an imminent US attack, as experts warn of military escalation, regional instability and a global economic crisis.

Iran is on full alert and expects a major US assault, University of Tehran professor Mohammad Marandi said, warning that escalation would trigger a global economic depression and topple regional governments, while retired US Air Force Lieutenant Colonel Karen Kwiatkowski argued that Trump seeks a dramatic visual to claim victory and that US forces cannot protect their regional partners.

Speaking on Al Mayadeen's Iran and the World: The Grand Standoff, Marandi emphasized that Iranian officials and the public believe American forces are positioned for an attack. "I don't know if the Iranians have information that an attack is imminent," he stated, adding that Iranians "believe that the Americans are poised for an attack, they have positioned themselves for an assault on the country."

The armed forces are on full alert, and some schools on the coast have moved classes online, which he called a clear indication that Iran expects an assault based on the scale and disposition of deployed US forces.

Marandi noted that "I do not know if Iran has any insider information or whether it has any intelligence about an imminent attack," but Iranians are saying the Americans "have prepared themselves for a potential attack" and Iran has prepared for a major assault.

Dismissing Trump's statements

Addressing recent remarks made by Trump, Marandi argued that "nothing that Trump says is important. The only thing that is important is what the US armed forces does," noting that Trump "says one thing today, and he'll say the opposite tomorrow."

He added that "nothing that he says has any credibility whatsoever," citing the Islamabad MOU Trump signed and never implemented and talks with Iran before the 12 Day War that Trump later called fake. Posts on Truth Social are, in Marandi's words, "very rarely discussed anymore" in Iran.

Marandi maintained that an American attack on Iran would solve nothing, and would instead worsen the global economic crisis and the difficulties facing ordinary Americans. "Even if it's not a major assault, any form of assault on Iran, just continuing the current policy is going to make things worse. A major escalation will make it horrific," he noted.

Iranian decision-makers are baffled by Trump's intentions, Marandi emphasized, warning that no one should expect reason from a president "surrounded by Israeli forces" with no history of deciding on facts.

The consequences for the region will be severe, Marandi predicted, arguing that a major assault "would definitely lead to a global economic depression, and the downfall of regimes like Saudi Arabia and other tiny family regimes in the region, because they won't survive such an escalation."

On Iran's approach to the United States, he asserted that Iran has moved past expecting Washington to conform to logic, calling the Trump administration unlike any previous US presidency.

Neighbors as co-conspirators

Countries that assisted the United States in the war against Iran are, in Marandi's assessment, "co-conspirators" who "have helped kill Iranian children and Iranian citizens."

He pointed out that US aircraft refueling Israeli and US jets took off from these countries, and that they assisted Saddam Hussein in the war he imposed on Iran.

"Does anyone think Iran is going to look away and allow these countries which give the Americans rights to fly over their territory, which hosts US forces, which hosts, as we speak, tankers to refuel American and perhaps Israeli regime jets?" Marandi asked, should Washington launch another war.

Already fragile, he argued, these states face mounting pressure both from their conduct toward Iran and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, and from the war Mohammed bin Salman provoked against Yemen.

"If the United States carries out a major assault on Iran, these regimes would fall," Marandi warned, adding that continued US pressure would push them toward greater instability.

Strikes meant to deliver a visual win

Trump's talk of the "mother of all bombs" reflects a search for a dramatic image to end the war, Kwiatkowski said. The massive conventional bomb must be delivered by a C-130 aircraft that would be "highly vulnerable anywhere near Iran's airspace," she noted, yet Trump is suggesting it would provide the visual he needs.

In her account, Trump grasps that his actions only worsen the global economy without forcing Iran to submit, but he cannot simply admit error and end the war.

"He has already the seven points that they're considering, but certainly he's already signed the MOU from some months ago, which really would have ended the war," Kwiatkowski said. "So he's not the man that can do the right thing."

She cautioned that more strikes are likely, despite being counterproductive, because they would give Trump "the appearance of winning so that he can then end this thing." Like Marandi, the retired colonel described a president surrounded by Israel firsters guiding his thinking.

No ground forces have been deployed for an invasion, she noted, but the United States retains the ability to drop bombs, fire missiles and attack from the sea. "I think Trump would be willing to basically waste that capability to get some sort of excuse to say, I won and end the war," she said.

Kwiatkowski's assessment was that Iran had prepared over many years, protecting its missiles and air defense and studying how Americans fight in West Asia. "So they were prepared. America was not prepared."

Iran's military readiness

Recent assessments, she said, place Iran's defensive, ballistic missile and drone capabilities at or above their level four or five months ago, in some cases higher than before the February 28 attack by Israel and the United States.

Iran has pledged serious retaliation, and what remains of US allies' military facilities in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain would be hit, she warned, along with Jordan, and possibly "Israel" if it participates.

Pointing to Trump's refusal to help Saudi Arabia against the Yemeni Armed Forces, despite repeated requests, Kwiatkowski called the regional governments "already highly vulnerable." She questioned why Trump would attack at all, citing Iran's known strength and its record of keeping its word.

Strait of Hormuz and the oil picture

Kwiatkowski disputed claims that oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. "Our Navy in particular, cannot really operate anywhere near the strait," she said, noting US ships have been fired upon and have repeatedly moved away.

The loss of even a small American ship would be a severe blow to Trump, she argued, so the United States instead advises vessels to transit the western side with lights off and communications down, leaving them unprotected while mines take a toll.

She rejected that the quoted prices of $100 or $110 a barrel reflect the real scarcity of global energy or the damage to processed products, especially jet fuel and diesel. "The diesel fuel prices are so impossible in the United States right now," she said, noting Trump recently waived diesel tariffs against Russia.

It would take years to recover, she predicted, from damage to refineries, pumping stations, pipelines and supplies of aluminum, potash, fertilizer and helium. "I don't know who's telling Trump these lies about oil getting through, because that's just what they are," she said.

Iran's retaliation and public preparation

Iran's current escalation responds to Trump's escalation, Marandi said, recalling that Bessent declared "D-Day" with the intention of destroying the Iranian economy. Iran is hitting back at the United States and at regional oil exporters that assist it, he explained, and the number of ships struck rose substantially after President Hezbollah returned from New York, as Tehran had promised.

He noted Iran was already under maximum-pressure sanctions and a siege that he called an active war on ordinary Iranians.

A statement by the Assembly of Experts, Marandi said, is aimed at the Iranian public, reminding people of the situation so they are not surprised if the United States attacks overnight and so the country can function in wartime.

Diplomacy and military deterrence do not contradict each other, Marandi argued. "Diplomacy never ends. The Foreign Ministry has an obligation to continue to seek solutions while the military has an obligation to intimidate any potential aggression," he said.

He rejected the notion that talks weaken defense or that battlefield resolve neglects diplomacy. "Iran will continue to try to find a way to end this peacefully," he stated, but because Trump is not a rational actor and those around him do not share the American people's agenda, Iran must be ready for all-out war.

US politics and the midterms

Iran would like to see Trump lose the midterm elections, with a larger defeat strengthening Tehran's position, Marandi said.

He also noted a countervailing view inside Iran that a victory by Netanyahu's opponents could prove worse, because they would seek to rehabilitate the Israeli government and place all blame for the genocide on Netanyahu. Iran, he stressed, will not openly support any side in US elections and is not greatly concerned with the results, focusing instead on its own military and defense capabilities.

Kwiatkowski pointed to deep US divisions. "New York has always been hostile towards Trump," she said, while noting he retains a strong base in the heartland. She cautioned against overconfidence in polling, which she said has generally been biased against Trump, and said the Democratic Party "is not reflective of the popular views held by ordinary Americans," remaining pro-Israel despite an anti-war base.

Democratic gains would matter, she suggested, because the party is hostile to Trump and its base opposes the war, creating pressure to change course. But she doubted Congress could restrain a president who rules by executive order and no longer cares about popular support, focusing instead on legacy and enrichment.

The coalition that elected Trump twice had been betrayed, Kwiatkowski said. "He has betrayed that base, number one," she stated, adding that MAGA and America First "have really lost the spirit of Trump" because he has done the opposite of what he promised.

In her rural Republican county, she said, the party is "invisible" and cannot support a president who has economically harmed farmers, who now see him as a traitor to their interests. She also disputed Trump's claims about the Strait, saying he is "outright lying" and that no credible adviser would tell him otherwise.

Ethiopia Advances Strategic Interests, Diplomacy and Regional Security This Week

By Staff Writer 

October 18, 2026 (ENA) 

Ethiopia has concluded the week with a series of significant political, diplomatic, economic and security developments, underscoring its determination to consolidate domestic stability, deepen international partnerships and strengthen its strategic role in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region.

From establishing a six-month caretaker administration in Tigray to advancing economic diplomacy at the 2026 International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Ethiopia has pursued multiple priorities aimed at strengthening national stability and accelerating development.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s telephone conversations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio further highlighted Ethiopia’s active bilateral engagement. Meanwhile a security briefing for foreign military attachés underscored the government’s emphasis on safeguarding national sovereignty and addressing information gaps surrounding the country’s security situation.

Beyond immediate political and security priorities, the week also featured renewed calls for national unity, stronger technological capacity and climate resilience, alongside a broader national ambition to secure reliable maritime access and expand Ethiopia’s contribution to regional peace and economic integration.

As Ethiopia begins a new five-year political chapter under the Medemer Government, these developments reflect an interconnected agenda: consolidating peace at home, mobilizing resources for development and advancing the country’s interests through regional cooperation and international engagement.

Caretaker Administration in Tigray Region 

Ethiopia’s federal government has established a six-month caretaker administration for the Tigray Region, with a mandate to restore peace, revive public institutions and services, rebuild war-damaged infrastructure and prepare the ground for free and transparent elections.

The decision followed a resolution by the House of Federation and a subsequent binding decision by the Council of Ministers to establish a provisional administration for the region.

According to a statement from the Office of the Prime Minister, the measure came after repeated efforts to resolve the conflict through the Pretoria Agreement encountered obstacles attributed to the TPLF leadership. The statement accused the leadership of undermining the peace process and returning to conflict, arguing that the region’s population should not be trapped in a recurring cycle of violence.

The federal government emphasized that lasting peace requires prioritizing development, strengthening Tigray’s place within Ethiopia’s federal system and deepening cooperation with the country’s other peoples. The caretaker administration is expected to restore the functioning of government institutions, facilitate the resumption of essential social services, rehabilitate damaged infrastructure and support the return of internally displaced people to their homes.

The initiative places institutional recovery, peace and the restoration of essential services at the center of efforts to address the region’s challenges. Its implementation and progress toward credible elections will be important indicators of whether the transitional arrangement can help establish a more stable political environment.

Ethiopia Intensifies Economic Diplomacy, Seeks Fresh Investment Capital

Ethiopia has stepped up its international economic engagement at the 2026 IMF and World Bank Group Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, seeking to translate ongoing economic reforms and progress on debt restructuring into stronger investment partnerships and development financing.

The Ethiopian delegation, led by National Bank of Ethiopia Governor Dr. Eyob Tekalign and including State Minister of Finance Tiguist Fisseha, engaged with international financial institutions, development partners and senior financial officials on the country’s economic priorities. The meetings provided a platform to discuss macroeconomic reforms, financial stability, debt sustainability, private investment and financing for Ethiopia’s development ambitions.

Governor Eyob emphasized that Ethiopia is increasingly looking beyond debt restructuring toward attracting fresh investment capital and building high-value international partnerships that reflect the country’s market size, economic potential and development priorities. The shift comes as Ethiopia advances negotiations with external creditors. According to the delegation’s account, agreements with bilateral creditors have been finalized, while negotiations with commercial lenders are progressing following an agreement in principle with Eurobond holders.

The delegation also held engagements with representatives of international financial institutions and partner countries to explore opportunities for closer cooperation and investment. For Ethiopia, the objective extends beyond securing additional financing. It is also about strengthening investor confidence, expanding access to development resources and ensuring that international partnerships support the country’s long-term economic transformation.

As the country continues implementing economic reforms, the ability to convert international commitments into productive investment, employment opportunities and improved livelihoods will remain a central test of its economic diplomacy.

Ethiopia Reaffirms Sovereignty as Foreign Military Attachés Receive Security Briefing

Ethiopia has reiterated its commitment to safeguarding its sovereignty and territorial integrity as foreign military attachés received an update on the country’s security situation at Bishoftu Air Force Base.

The briefing provided foreign military representatives with information on developments over the preceding three weeks, including security incidents and measures taken by the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF).

The representatives were also shown weapons reportedly captured during recent security operations in Tigray and adjoining areas.

According to accounts of the briefing, the military attachés described the direct exchange as useful in clarifying information gaps and addressing reports circulating on social media and other media platforms. They also expressed support for Ethiopia’s right to protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

High-Level Telephone Diplomacy Strengthens Ethiopia’s International Engagement

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed held separate telephone conversations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, discussing bilateral relations and regional and multilateral issues of mutual interest.

Following his conversation with Netanyahu, the Prime Minister described the exchange as fruitful and constructive, noting that the two leaders discussed bilateral relations and key regional developments. He also reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening cooperation.

In his conversation with Rubio, PM Abiy discussed opportunities to translate the longstanding Ethiopia–United States relationship into a more strategic and practical partnership. The Prime Minister welcomed Washington’s assurance of continued support for Ethiopia and emphasized the shared interest in advancing bilateral cooperation and addressing regional and multilateral priorities.

The engagements reflect Ethiopia’s continued efforts to maintain high-level dialogue with international partners while advancing its diplomatic and strategic interests.

For a country whose economic and security priorities are closely connected to developments across the Horn of Africa, the Red Sea and the wider Middle East, sustained diplomatic engagement remains important to building partnerships, addressing shared concerns and supporting regional cooperation.

National Flag Day Renews Call for Unity, Consensus and Shared Prosperity

Ethiopia marked its 19th National Flag Day on October 12 under the theme “Our Flag for National Consensus and Unity,” renewing calls for national cohesion, respect for diversity and collective responsibility for the country’s future.

In his message marking the occasion, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed emphasized that national unity is fundamental to Ethiopia’s pursuit of prosperity and that the national flag represents the country’s shared history, sovereignty and strength in diversity. The observance came at a time when consolidating peace, strengthening public institutions and broadening national consensus remain important priorities for Ethiopia’s political transition.

Beyond its symbolic significance, National Flag Day offered an opportunity to highlight the importance of dialogue, mutual understanding and cooperation among Ethiopia’s diverse communities. The message reinforced the idea that sustainable development requires more than economic growth: it also depends on social cohesion, shared responsibility and the ability to pursue common national objectives while respecting the country’s diversity.

Technology and Meteorological Capacity Advance Climate Resilience

Ethiopia has underscored the growing importance of scientific research, technological advancement and reliable data infrastructure in strengthening climate resilience and supporting national development. During a visit to the Ethiopia Meteorology Institute, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed highlighted the institution’s role in generating meteorological information and improving the country’s capacity to anticipate and respond to changing weather conditions.

The Prime Minister emphasized the need for continuous data collection, scientific research and technological modernization to strengthen institutional capacity and improve the use of weather and climate information. Reliable meteorological services are critical to several key sectors of the Ethiopian economy, particularly agriculture, water management, energy, transportation and disaster preparedness.

Improved forecasting and early-warning systems can help communities and public institutions prepare for extreme weather events, reduce potential losses and make better-informed development decisions. As climate-related risks increasingly affect African economies, strengthening national forecasting and early-warning capacity will also contribute to wider efforts to protect livelihoods and support sustainable development.

Ethiopia’s New Political Chapter Places Sea Access and Regional Integration in Focus

As Ethiopia enters a new five-year political chapter under the Medemer Government, sovereign sea access remains a prominent national strategic and economic ambition. As one of the world’s most populous landlocked countries, Ethiopia has a substantial interest in securing dependable access to maritime trade routes through mutually beneficial arrangements with regional partners.

Reliable sea access could help reduce logistical constraints, improve export competitiveness, attract investment and strengthen Ethiopia’s integration into regional and global markets.

The issue also carries wider regional significance. Ethiopia’s economic growth, population size and position at the heart of the Horn of Africa mean that maritime connectivity has implications for trade, infrastructure development and cross-border economic cooperation. Ethiopia’s pursuit of maritime access therefore intersects with a broader national agenda: strengthening economic resilience, diversifying trade routes and building regional partnerships that can generate shared prosperity.

Ethiopia’s Maritime Ambition Linked to Red Sea Stability

Ethiopia’s pursuit of reliable maritime access featured prominently in the week’s strategic agenda, reflecting the country’s economic interests and the Red Sea’s critical role in global trade and security.

With its strategic position, economic potential and longstanding peacekeeping record, Ethiopia could contribute to regional maritime security and protect vital trade routes through constructive cooperation with coastal states, respect for international law and mutually beneficial arrangements. Reliable maritime access, stronger regional cooperation and a stable Red Sea are interconnected priorities that could unlock trade, investment and shared prosperity across the Horn of Africa.

Tana Forum Positions Ethiopia at the Center of Africa’s Peace and Security Dialogue

Ethiopia is preparing to host the 12th Tana High-Level Forum on Security in Africa in Bahir Dar from October 23 to 25, bringing African leaders, policymakers, researchers and security experts together to examine the continent’s evolving peace and security challenges. The forum’s theme, “Pathways to Peace in Africa: Economic Sovereignty and Geopolitical Transformation,” reflects growing recognition that sustainable peace is closely linked to economic independence, institutional strength and Africa’s capacity to navigate intensifying global geopolitical competition.

Across the continent, conflicts, political instability, external rivalries and economic vulnerabilities continue to complicate efforts to achieve lasting peace and development. The Tana Forum offers an opportunity to examine how African countries can strengthen locally driven responses, deepen regional cooperation and align peace and security strategies with the continent’s development priorities.

Its emphasis on economic sovereignty also highlights the importance of mobilizing domestic resources, building resilient economies and ensuring that African countries have greater capacity to shape decisions affecting their futures.

For Ethiopia, hosting the forum reinforces Addis Ababa’s and the country’s wider role in continental diplomacy and provides an additional platform for advancing dialogue on African-led solutions to shared challenges.

Looking Ahead: Connecting National Stability with Regional Opportunity

This week’s developments illustrate the interconnected nature of Ethiopia’s domestic priorities and international ambitions.

The caretaker administration in Tigray region  places peace, institutional recovery and the restoration of public services at the center of the country’s internal challenges. Economic diplomacy in Bangkok reflects an effort to turn reform and debt-restructuring progress into fresh investment and development financing. High-level telephone conversations and military briefings demonstrate continued engagement with international partners on diplomatic and security issues.

At the same time, National Flag Day, investments in meteorological capacity and preparations for the Tana Forum highlight the importance of national cohesion, technological modernization and African-led approaches to peace and development.

Ethiopia’s pursuit of sovereign sea  access adds a longer-term strategic dimension to this agenda, linking economic competitiveness with regional connectivity and the stability of the Red Sea.

All in all, these priorities point to a broader national objective: consolidating stability at home, mobilizing resources for inclusive development and building international partnerships that advance Ethiopia’s interests while contributing to regional cooperation.

African Diplomats Urge Stronger African-Led Strategies, Sustained Dialogue, Local Ownership, Adequate Financing

Addis Ababa, October 18, 2026 (ENA) —African diplomats have called for stronger African-led strategies to address the continent’s conflicts and security challenges. 

Approached by Pulse of Africa at the Pre-Tana Forum Dialogue in Bahir Dar, the ambassadors emphasized that sustained dialogue, local ownership and adequate financing are essential to achieving lasting peace and development.

Ghana’s Ambassador to Ethiopia, McArios Akanbeanab Akanbong, and Burundi’s Permanent Representative to the African Union, Ambassador Willy Nyamitwe, highlighted the importance of platforms that bring together policymakers, diplomats, academics and civil society representatives to develop solutions grounded in Africa’s realities.

Ambassador Akanbong said the Tana Forum provides an important platform for Africa to shape its security agenda, examine the root causes of conflict and formulate strategies to address terrorism, interstate tensions and other threats to stability.

The Ghanaian ambassador also said that heavy reliance on external financing could leave Africa vulnerable to outside influence.

While acknowledging the importance of international partnerships, he stressed that such cooperation should reinforce, rather than undermine, African ownership of the continent’s priorities and solutions.

Meanwhile, Ambassador Nyamitwe called for sustained efforts to achieve the African Union’s goal of silencing the guns by 2030. 

He said continued dialogue was necessary to assess setbacks, bring diverse stakeholders together and identify practical pathways toward peace.

Nyamitwe also highlighted the close link between security and economic development, noting that sustainable progress depends on peaceful and stable societies.

He added that Burundi, under the chairmanship of its president at the African Union, remained committed to advancing peace and security alongside broader development priorities, including water and sanitation, education, youth empowerment and women’s advancement.

Held under the theme “Navigating a Changing World: The Role of Diplomacy and Dialogue in Advancing Peace and Security in Africa,” the Pre-Tana Forum Dialogue highlighted the need for African-led responses to evolving security challenges.

The discussions underscored a shared message: lasting peace requires more than dialogue alone. It also depends on effective African leadership, stronger cooperation, sustainable financing and a sustained commitment to solutions that reflect the continent’s priorities and realities.

Ethiopia Sets up Tigray Caretaker Government as Ex-fighters Seek Return to Civilian Life

By KHALED KAZZIHA

2:06 PM EDT, October 16, 2026

NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — Ethiopia’s government set up a six-month caretaker administration for Tigray following renewed fighting in the region, as hundreds of former combatants registered Friday for a program to help them return to civilian life.

The new administration is expected to restore public services, help displaced people return and prepare for an election within six months under federal oversight, according to the office of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

The announcement follows the withdrawal of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front rebel group, or TPLF, from Mekelle and the entry of government-allied fighters into the regional capital on Oct. 4.

Renewed fighting in the northern region in recent weeks has effectively shattered a 2022 peace agreement that ended a devastating two-year war. Ethiopia also has accused Eritrean troops of occupying parts of its territory, while Eritrea condemned Ethiopia for what it called a declaration of war.

Former combatants seek to return to civilian life

At Mekelle’s Tigray Martyrs’ Memorial Monument, former fighters lined up to register with the authorities, some carrying papers or sheltering under umbrellas. Registration began Wednesday. Authorities declined to say how many former fighters had signed up.

“We were called upon by the TPLF to rejoin our former comrades and units, and doing so was even considered mandatory,” said Filmon Gebreselassie, a 33-year-old day laborer. “However, I did not want to return (to war). I decided instead to focus on raising my children.”

He said that he had disarmed after the 2022 peace agreement in Tigray, but had been unable to register before the reintegration program was suspended as new tensions rose.

Other former fighters were also signing up because they didn’t want to fight again, he said.

Many young men at the registration office declined interviews, citing fear of retaliation from the TPLF.

In an Oct. 14 statement on its official Facebook page, the TPLF denounced Tigrayans collaborating with the federal government as “traitors” and said they would face “accountability and public judgment.”

Human Rights Watch reported in June that Tigrayan authorities then in charge of Mekelle had ordered former fighters back to their units in a compulsory recruitment campaign. A TPLF spokesperson said those defending the region were volunteers, according to the watchdog.

The disarmament, demobilization and reintegration of former Tigrayan fighters is part of the 2022 peace agreement.

Abiy’s office accused the TPLF of obstructing the agreement and said that the latest fighting ended in its defeat. The rebels urged their forces to continue fighting and called on Tigrayans to support them.

Fighting is far from over, analyst says

Magnus Taylor, deputy Horn of Africa director at the International Crisis Group, cautioned against equating the loss of towns with an end to fighting.

“We shouldn’t imagine that this conflict is completely over just because the TPLF has lost Mekelle,” he told The Associated Press on Wednesday.

Capturing towns and roads would hamper Tigrayan fighters without necessarily securing the vast rural areas where the rebel forces regrouped during the previous war, Taylor said.

Ethiopia also has accused Eritrean troops of occupying its territory, an allegation that the AP couldn’t independently verify. Eritrea described Ethiopia’s assertion that it was taking self-defense measures as a declaration of war.

Taylor warned that the proximity of the countries’ forces increased the risk of a wider conflict. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged de-escalation in a call with Abiy on Wednesday, according to the U.S. State Department.

Eritrean troops fought alongside Ethiopian forces during the 2020-2022 war, which caused about 500,000 civilian deaths through violence, famine and collapsed health services, according to researchers at Ghent University in Belgium.

___

Amir Aman Kiyaro in Hamburg, Germany, Filmon Equar Hailu in Mekelle, Ethiopia, and Desmond Tiro in Nairobi, Kenya, contributed to this report.

Equatorial Guinea is Expanding an Ambitious Malaria Elimination Plan

By MONIKA PRONCZUK

8:22 PM EDT, October 18, 2026

MALABO, Equatorial Guinea (AP) — With its torrential rains, tropical forests and omnipresent humidity, Equatorial Guinea provides the perfect conditions for mosquitoes to breed. For centuries, mosquito-borne diseases, in particular malaria, have dictated the fate of residents of this central African nation, impacting how they lived, worked and died.

But Bioko island, off mainland Equatorial Guinea, has managed to sharply reduce malaria infections and deaths.

Bioko, roughly half the size of Rhode Island, has used familiar tools: indoor spraying, mosquito nets and keeping control of the larvae population. Its success, however, has depended on something less easily replicated: two decades of painstaking data collection, sustained funding and workers going door to door to win residents’ trust.

Now the tiny, oil-rich country wants to bring that approach to its mainland and eliminate malaria altogether. But the expansion of Bioko’s strategy presents formidable challenges, from porous international borders to the sheer scale of the territory.

In Malabo, Bioko’s biggest city, a team of men and women equipped with insecticide sprayers squeezed between low-rise cement buildings on a recent morning, as heavy rain drummed on aluminum roofs.

“We are here to give key messages so that the population understands the importance of our interventions,” said Cristina Ngui Otogo, the program coordinator. “Today it will be hard to convince people to get out of their homes.”

Around 610,000 people died in 2024 from malaria, according to the last available data from the WHO, and African countries accounted for 95% of global cases and deaths.

Despite technological advances, such as new vaccines for children, the fight against malaria in Africa has stalled, making it unlikely the continent can achieve its goal of eliminating the disease by 2030. Only two countries in sub-Saharan Africa have been certified malaria free by the World Health Organization: Mauritius and Cabo Verde, both of them island nations.

The program uses data to adjust strategy in real time

Africa CDC experts say one key element of Bioko’s strategy is meticulously collecting data about the population and where people live.

“First, we did a population census with the number of houses and demographics,” said Guillermo Garcia of U.S. nonprofit MCD Global Health, which implements the program. “There is no address system in Equatorial Guinea, so we came up with our own system to map out how many houses there are and where and track the spraying and the number of cases.”

The collected data allows for designing targeted interventions, tracking their effectiveness in real time and adjusting them if needed. Data teams look at the timings of when houses were sprayed and which ones reported cases of malaria, then analyze how best to prevent future infections.

Empathy is key for getting people on board

The core of the program depends on people who patiently go from door to door and explain the strategy to residents, trying to convince them to get their houses sprayed.

Benjamin Esono, a university student who works part time as a sprayer, said that the key to success was empathy.

“Each person is different, so you need to have a different way of connecting with them,” he said.

“It has not always been easy” to get residents on board, said Ngui Otogo, the coordinator. Sometimes it takes several attempts.

One of those who let the sprayers in despite the early hour and pouring rain was Elena Ntongono, who works as a security guard. As she hastily changed from her pajamas, she explained that she had malaria multiple times, most recently seven months ago.

“It wasn’t very serious,” she said, though it did mean she had to miss work. That was a big problem because she is the main breadwinner in the family.

She wants to avoid that in the future, she said, and to protect her 11-month-old grandson who has not had malaria yet.

“I am very happy my house is being sprayed,” she said.

US oil companies have helped fund the program

Funding is a problem. The effort on the island has been funded by oil giants which have been operating there since the 1990s. Together with the government, U.S. oil companies, including ConocoPhillips and Chevron Oil, have invested over $130 million over the last two decades to fight malaria in Bioko.

No such funding had been available for the mainland until earlier this year, when a $116 million investment from the government and businesses was announced to roll out the program on the mainland and the Annobon island, a remote, volcanic island which forms the country’s southernmost province.

“There was a common shared interest” between the government and U.S. oil companies operating in Equatorial Guinea, Mitoha Ondo’o Ayekaba, the country’s health minister, told The Associated Press in an interview. Oil companies realized that many employees were off sick with malaria, decreasing their productivity.

Because of its oil wealth, Equatorial Guinea has one of Africa’s higher per-capita incomes. Yet the country is rife with corruption, and more than half its population lives in poverty. Many houses in the densely populated middle class neighborhood where the sprayers operated were built with low quality materials, left unfinished or damaged.

Drones and genetically modified mosquitoes could be added tools

Ayekaba, the health minister, was born and raised in Malabo. He said that as a child, he was hospitalized several times a year because of malaria. His two children, ages 5 and 7, have never contracted it.

“That would have been unthinkable before the program was launched,” he said, when around half of Bioko Island’s population was infected with malaria. Now the prevalence of malaria is around 7%, and deaths of children under five decreased by 78%.

Eliminating malaria from the whole territory is necessary to attract tourists and ensure economic growth, the health minister said.

The strategy will combine the methods used in Bioko with the rollout of R21, a WHO-recommended vaccine for children. Garcia said the plan was to vaccinate 300,000 children across the country, and to use new surveillance methods, including drones, to spot mosquito hot spots.

Authorities are also evaluating the use of genetically modified mosquitoes, which are being developed by experts at the University of California, Davis. The plan would be to release the genetically modified mosquitoes, which would no longer carry the malaria parasite, to either suppress the number of wild insects or reduce their capacity to transmit the disease.

Malaria is a disease of rural poverty

Authorities of Equatorial Guinea insisted that Bioko’s success was “perfectly replicable” in the mainland.

But experts point out that Bioko has a natural advantage: It is an island, where the risk of transmission from abroad is reduced.

Mainland Equatorial Guinea borders two countries with high malaria prevalence, Cameroon and Gabon. Mosquitoes and infected people can move freely from one country to another, and success requires complex coordination between the governments. The mainland’s surface is also 13 times bigger than Bioko.

“What experience has taught us is that the current package of interventions is not sufficient for eliminating malaria from any country in continental sub-Saharan Africa,” said Dr. Matthew M. Ippolito, associate professor of medicine at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and a malaria specialist.

Eliminating malaria requires precisely timing interventions to local transmission patterns, which can vary significantly even within one country, he said. And even then, infections can be reintroduced from neighboring countries if their control efforts fail.

But the “absolute key” in saving lives was economic development that trickles down to the population, he said.

“Malaria is a disease of rural poverty,” he said, adding it cannot be fought without “better housing, better healthcare, and better health in general.”

Kenya Confirms Eighth Ebola Virus Case Amid Outbreak in Nearby DRC

Don Jacobson

Sun, October 18, 2026 at 8:49 PM EDT

An eighth person carrying the Bundibugyo virus was identified in Kenya on Sunday as the country remained on high alert amid a major Ebola outbreak in the nearby Democratic Republic of Congo. File Photo by Ahmed Jallanzo/EPA

Oct. 18 (UPI) -- An eighth person infected with the virus that causes Ebola was identified in Kenya on Sunday as the disease outbreak appeared to continue its migration from the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The African nation's health ministry reported that of 38 people tested on Sunday one 49-year-old man tested positive for the Bundibugyo virus, which has no approved vaccine or treatment.

Kenyan Director-General for Health Dr. Patrick Amoth said the victim was not a healthcare worker and that he developed fever, headache and muscle pain.

The confirmation of an eighth case came less than two weeks after Kenya's first-known case stemming from the current DRC Ebola outbreak was announced by health officials.

In that instance, a patient fell ill in the DRC in mid-September, and after receiving treatment at several local hospitals, travelled by plane to Nairobi where they arrived on Oct. 3 with symptoms including fever, chills, fatigue, muscle pain, painful swallowing, a sore throat and bleeding under the skin at injection sites.

Since then, seven more Bundibugyo infections have been identified in Kenya as the nation remains on heightened alert since the DRC outbreak began in May.

Kenyan officials on Sunday urged residents not to panic and again reassured the public that systems are in place to respond but urged those who have come into contact with any of the confirmed carriers within the previous 21 days to beware of symptoms and to call emergency services if they develop symptoms.

As of Oct. 6, the DRC outbreak had resulted in 8,728 confirmed cases and 4,205 confirmed deaths in that country, yielding a case fatality ratio of 48.2 as the World Health Organization warned it was growing exponentially.

The outbreak has shown "persistently high mortality" and a "large number of deaths occurring outside treatment center," the WHO noted, likely a result of delays in identifying illness and the lack of appropriate care.

The Netherlands reported the medical evacuation of a healthcare worker who tested positive for the Bundibugyo virus in the DRC on Oct. 1, who was subsequently reported to undergoing treatment in their home country.

DR Congo Ebola Outbreak Spreads To Nord-Ubangi, Kenya Cases Reach Eight

This article is an automated aggregation of coverage from news outlets. Our editorials offer in-depth analysis curated by the NewsCord team.

Nord-Ubangi province in DRC reports two Ebola cases, including one death. Kenya confirms eight Ebola cases, with a latest new patient bringing total to eight.

Eighth Province Confirmed

The Democratic Republic of the Congo’s Ebola outbreak spread to an eighth province after new cases were confirmed in Nord-Ubangi Province, with the health ministry reporting two men in their 20s tested positive in the Wapinda health zone and one patient died.

Qazinform News Agency, citing Xinhua, said the DRC had recorded 9,415 confirmed Ebola cases and 4,536 deaths since the outbreak began in May, producing a case fatality rate of 48.2%.

Kenya’s Health Ministry confirmed another case of Ebola, bringing Kenya’s confirmed infections to eight, and Health Ministry Director-General Dr. Patrick Amoth said, "Today, 38 people were tested, and one tested positive for Ebola."

DW also said the first patient died on October 5, and it described the latest case as a 49-year-old man who was not a healthcare worker and had developed fever, headache and muscle pain.

Quarantine, Testing, and Risk

Kenya’s Health Ministry Director-General Dr. Patrick Amoth said patients in quarantine were being tested after developing symptoms, and he said the other six patients were stable after receiving supportive treatment.

DW reported that Amoth said the latest case was a patient attendant who cleaned utensils and linen and had likely been exposed to Kenya's first Ebola case, discovered earlier this month.

The Health Ministry recorded two cases, including one death, in Nord-Ubangi province, and the patients were men in their 20s living in the Wapinda health zone.

World Health Organization Regional Director for Africa Mohamed Yakub Janabi said, "We see pockets of Ebola generally going down, but unfortunately geographically it’s spreading out," while he spoke in Beni, eastern Congo.

Containment and Clinical Efforts

Health authorities in the region intensified surveillance after new infections were detected in Kenya, and medical and health containment teams intensified border controls to curb the spread of Ebola in Central and East Africa. An official report from the Ministry of Health confirmed that one of the affected patients died and medical teams investigated the origin of the infectious vector in the locality.

There is no vaccine or treatment specifically targeting Bundibugyo virus causing this outbreak, and researchers in Uganda launched a phase 1 clinical trial of a candidate vaccine to combat the Bundibugyo virus. Eugene Ruzagira, PhD, senior scientist at the Medical Research Council, the Uganda Virus Research Institute, and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine Uganda Research Unit, said, "In a phase one vaccine trial, what we are looking out for is whether the vaccine is safe".

Kenya Confirms Four More Ebola Cases, Bringing Total to Seven

Three health workers who ⁠treated the country’s first Ebola patient are among the latest confirmed cases

A nurse is assisted by a colleague in donning personal protective equipment (PPE) at an isolation facility prepared to receive potential Ebola patients during a media visit to Nairobi Hospital in Nairobi on October 7, 2026.

By Al Jazeera Staff and AP

17 Oct 2026

The Kenyan government says four new patients have tested positive for the Ebola Bundibugyo virus, bringing the total number of confirmed cases in the East African nation to seven.

Three of the new cases were among health workers who treated the country’s first patient, Kenya’s Ministry of Health said in a statement posted on X on Saturday.

The relative had been in quarantine since October 6, the ministry said.

This comes a day after Kenya confirmed three cases in the country. The patient identified on Friday was a “primary contact and a close relative of the first and second cases”, the Health Ministry said.

Kenya’s cases are linked to the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which has recorded more than 9,000 cases and more than 4,300 deaths since it was officially detected in May.

Kenya’s index patient died on October 5 after being ill in the DRC for a month and then flying to Nairobi on October 3. The cases are the first known infections ⁠passed on inside Kenya.

Of the first patient’s 130 contacts, the Health Ministry said 128, or 98.5 percent, had been quarantined – above the global benchmark of 85 percent to break the chain of transmission.

The ministry says it has traced and quarantined nearly all of the first patient’s contacts and there is no evidence that the virus is spreading in the community.

Kenya has reacted quickly by strengthening screening and establishing a hotline for anyone who suspects they may have been in contact with an Ebola patient, but some observers have questioned how the index patient managed to bypass health screenings upon returning to Kenya and make contact with so many people.

Ebola is highly contagious and spreads through direct contact with the bodily fluids of an infected person, including blood and vomit, or through contact with contaminated materials and surfaces, such as bedding and clothing.

The dominant strain in this outbreak is the Bundibugyo strain, for which there are currently no vaccines or treatments. This has complicated efforts to control the spread of the disease.

Research is under way to develop one or more vaccines that work against the strain, and some of these vaccines are already in the early phases of testing in humans.

DR Congo’s Fast-moving Ebola Outbreak Spreads to Eighth Province

A healthcare worker walks inside a treatment center for Ebola patients in Beni, North Kivu province, eastern Congo, Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2026. (AP Photo/Sebastien Kitsa Musayi)

ASSOCIATED PRESS

5:41 PM EDT, October 18, 2026

The Ebola outbreak in Congo has reached an eighth province in the country’s north, authorities said on Sunday as the spread of the world’s fastest-growing outbreak of the disease on record continues to outpace response efforts.

The Health Ministry has recorded two cases, including one death, in Nord-Ubangi province, bordering the Central African Republic. The ministry said both patients were men in their 20s living in the Wapinda health zone, which borders Bas-Uele province, where Ebola cases have been reported previously.

Authorities have recorded at least 9,400 cases, including over 4,500 deaths, in the outbreak declared in mid-May, making it the deadliest in Congo’s history.

The virus has spilled over into other countries including neighboring Uganda, which has since declared itself free of the disease, and Kenya, which recorded a seventh case on Saturday. The Central African Republic has not recorded any confirmed cases.

“We see pockets of Ebola generally going down, but unfortunately geographically it’s spreading out,” World Health Organization Regional Director for Africa Mohamed Yakub Janabi told The Associated Press in an interview in Beni, eastern Congo, on Friday.

Janabi said one of the biggest challenges has been convincing those who are infected to seek medical assistance, adding that some deaths occur in the community outside of health centers.

Serge Ngalebato, epidemiologist and field coordinator for the Wamba health zone in Haut-Uele province, told the AP health workers in his health zone introduced periodic home visits because people were too afraid to go to hospital.

Nord-Ubangi is located between Sud-Ubangi and Bas-Uele, the last two provinces the disease had spread to along the border with the Central African Republic, where recurring armed violence has forced thousands to flee and take refuge in Congolese border communities. Access in the region can be difficult due to poor roads and limited communication networks.

Ituri province in eastern Congo remains the disease’s epicenter, accounting for almost three quarters of confirmed cases, according to the government’s most recent data, which shows 66 health zones have been affected since the start of the outbreak.

Congo’s state-news agency ACP reported Sunday that authorities in North Kivu province - where WHO says substantial transmission continues - will introduce a one-week ban from Monday on people entering the province from Ituri in an effort to slow the spread of the virus.

Other measures that will be introduced include prohibiting carrying more than two people on a motorcycle or four people in a car, as well as suspending big public gatherings such as at mass sports activities, nightclubs and political demonstrations.

The spread of the outbreak, caused by the rare Bundibugyo virus for which there is no approved vaccine or treatment, is fueled by mass population movements, rebel violence, mistrust and poor working conditions of front line workers.

Ngalebato said efforts to contain the virus in the Wamba health zone were initially met with resistance among local residents, but as time went on the community became more understanding and began reporting positive cases.

“Ebola is a community disease. If the community does not cooperate, it will be very difficult,” he said.

He added most of the cases reported in his health zone are around mining areas where the population moves constantly, so a lot of deaths were reported in these areas.

——

Saleh Mwanamilongo contributed from Bonn, Germany

Kenya’s Ebola Cases Hit 8, With No Community Transmission Yet

People disinfect their hands as a Kenyan health worker checks the temperatures of travelers crossing from Uganda to Kenya as part of measures to contain the spread of Ebola virus, in Busia, Kenya, Thursday, Oct. 15, 2026. (AP Photo/Andrew Kasuku)

By EVELYNE MUSAMBI

4:35 PM EDT, October 18, 2026

NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — Ebola cases in Kenya rose to eight on Sunday after another person tested positive while in quarantine, having been identified as a contact of the first patient.

Health Ministry Director-General Dr. Patrick Amoth said the eighth case involved a 49-year-old patient attendant who had attended to the first Ebola patient, who died at Nairobi Hospital two days after arriving in the country from Congo via Uganda.

Amoth said people in quarantine were being tested after developing symptoms. He added that the other six patients were stable after receiving supportive treatment.

Some 130 contacts, including health workers, were listed after the first patient died on Oct. 5, with 128 remaining in quarantine.

Ebola is highly contagious and spreads through direct contact with the bodily fluids of an infected person, including blood and vomit, or through contact with contaminated materials and surfaces, such as bedding and clothing. Congo has been experiencing its deadliest outbreak, with at least 4,000 deaths since May.

Kenya’s first case involved a 40-year-old Kenyan man who traveled from Congo through Uganda, arriving in Kenya on Oct. 3. A relative drove him to the hospital, and he died on Oct. 5.

Three of his close relatives are among those who have tested positive for the virus. Three health workers have also tested positive for Ebola.

Kenya’s neighbor, Tanzania, has tightened border screenings and introduced mandatory health declarations and 21-day monitoring for travelers arriving from high-risk countries.

Kenya’s first case exposed gaps in screening measures at border points. The country has since strengthened screening and established an emergency hotline for anyone who suspects they may have been in contact with an Ebola patient or develops symptoms.

The country has designated a gate at Nairobi’s main airport for all flights arriving from 10 countries identified as being at the center of the Ebola outbreak.

Mass Protests in Paris, Tunis Over Worsening Living Conditions

By Al Mayadeen English

17 Oct 2026 15:55

Demonstrators in Paris and Tunis take to the streets over rising prices and deteriorating living standards, with French police deploying tear gas in the capital.

Mass demonstrations swept Paris and Tunis on Saturday as protesters voiced anger over rising prices, worsening living standards, and mounting social and economic pressures.

In Paris, large crowds marched through the streets, joined by the “Yellow Vests” movement. Protesters raised slogans condemning the collapse in living standards as discontent over economic conditions fueled renewed public mobilization.

Al Mayadeen’s correspondent in Paris reported that French authorities deployed tens of thousands of police officers to oversee the demonstrations, citing concerns about potential violence. Police fired tear gas at protesters gathered in Place de la République.

According to the correspondent, police also searched everyone entering the square and seized their belongings, while firecrackers could be heard continuously. The correspondent highlighted an official decision by the French authorities to prevent demonstrations that day before they even began.

French officials also traded accusations over the alleged use of the popular movement for electoral purposes, reflecting political disputes surrounding the demonstrations.

Tunisian protesters demand national dignity

In Tunisia, demonstrators gathered in Mohamed Ali Square in the capital, marching under the slogan: “Work, Freedom, National Dignity,” in response to deteriorating economic conditions.

Participants told Al Mayadeen that they remained committed to national sovereignty and independent decision-making. They vowed to continue defending the rights of the Tunisian people and to protect them from the “specter of hunger” and poverty.

Explosions at Army Ammunition Depot in Northern Khartoum Cause Panic, Damage Homes

17 October 2026

October 17, 2026 (KHARTOUM) – Explosions at a Sudanese Armed Forces base in northern Khartoum on Saturday caused panic among residents and damaged several homes, while the military announced it had brought the situation under control.

The army said in a statement that an explosion occurred on Saturday afternoon at an ammunition depot belonging to the Weapons and Ammunition Corps.

The military attributed the blast to the friction of ammunition inside the storage facility, which triggered subsequent limited explosions.

The statement confirmed that forces had fully contained the situation and secured the surrounding area.

Residents reported that the blasts at the Weapons Corps in the Kadaro area north of Khartoum caused structural damage to homes in the suburb.

Locals said the incident sparked widespread panic and fear among civilians.

Witnesses said they heard the explosions from relatively distant locations.

Thick plumes of smoke rising from the base were also visible from afar.

Khartoum is currently experiencing a large-scale voluntary return of displaced persons.

Approximately 2.5 million people have returned to the capital, out of 5.1 million who have returned to their homes nationwide.

The mass return follows improved security conditions after the army regained control of central Sudan and parts of North Kordofan.

Blue Nile Initiative Condemns Arbitrary Arrests Targeting Civilians Over Alleged Family Ties

16/10/2026 19:36

Prison (RD file photo)

The Civil Society Initiative in the Blue Nile region has condemned arbitrary arrests targeting civilians on suspicion of family or tribal links to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) or the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) led by Abdelaziz El Hilu. 

Ali Hajo, the initiative’s secretary-general, told Radio Dabanga that security forces had arrested Elrih Younis Babiker, Elbagir Elamin Saad and Jabara Abdallah in El Roseires and taken them to an unknown location while blindfolded. He said there were reports that the detainees had been tortured.

Hajo said arrests had affected civilians across Blue Nile, particularly in Ed Damazin, El Roseires locality, Wad El Mahi and Geisan locality, with families often unaware of their relatives’ whereabouts. He said some detainees had been held for one to two years without investigation or charge.

The initiative warned that arbitrary arrests, alleged torture and enforced disappearances threaten peace, deepen grievances and undermine social cohesion. It called on the authorities to disclose the whereabouts of detainees, release those held without legal grounds or bring them before a court and allow families and lawyers access to them. FindLegal Aid

It also urged human rights organisations, the United Nations and international bodies to investigate alleged violations and help protect civilians.

Hajo warned that the security and humanitarian situation in Blue Nile was deteriorating, with displaced people facing dire conditions and drone attacks reportedly targeting civilian areas, including homes.

The initiative called for an immediate end to arbitrary arrests and urged the authorities to uphold the rule of law and protect civilians regardless of their identity or family ties.

Minawi Urges Restraint as Fallout from Deadly Sudan-Egypt Border Strikes Widens

15/10/2026 17:13 

NORTH WADI / ASHKEET / ARGEEN / WADI HALFA

Minni Minawi, leader of the Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM-MM), and wali of Darfur (File photo: FFC) 

Darfur’s governor says most reported victims of the North Wadi bombing came from Darfur, as rights groups demand accountability, cross border trade stalls and concerns grow over people fleeing the strikes.

Darfur governor Minni Minnawi has urged Sudanese and Egyptian authorities to establish the facts surrounding deadly strikes on artisanal gold miners near the Egyptian border, warning against collective blame as tensions rise between the two countries. 

Dozens of Sudanese miners were reportedly killed in airstrikes in North Wadi on Saturday. Minawi said most of the reported victims came from Darfur and called for an end to the demonisation of the joint forces, stressing that individual incidents must not fuel accusations against entire communities.

In a statement following a meeting with Egypt’s ambassador and consul in Port Sudan on Wednesday, Minawi said the Egyptian diplomats had expressed regret over the casualties and pledged that an ongoing investigation, conducted in cooperation with the Sudanese government, would establish the facts.

He urged both governments to coordinate their investigations, publish their findings transparently and hold those responsible to account. He also called on citizens and the media in both countries to avoid unverified reports and inflammatory rhetoric.

Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) Commander and Transitional Sovereignty Council President Lt Gen Abdelfattah El Burhan has ordered a fact-finding committee to investigate the miners’ deaths, while the National Human Rights Commission has announced plans to establish its own inquiry.

This follows a similar probe by El Burhan conducted in the wake of a similar reported attack by Egyptian forces earlier this year on June 17 and 18. 

The Sudanese Observatory for Human Rights has meanwhile called for urgent verification of reports that people fleeing the strikes were detained after reaching Port Sudan, while others were taken into Egyptian territory. The organisation demanded disclosure of their whereabouts and guarantees for their safety and legal rights.

‘Border trade disrupted as calls for accountability grow’

The fallout has spread to cross border transport. The Egyptian Truck Drivers’ Union announced a suspension of truck movements into and out of Sudan until further notice, citing the killing of two Egyptian drivers in Khartoum and concerns over the safety of its members. ExploreHistory

Meanwhile, the Ashkeet and Argeen border crossings in Northern State remained closed for a third day amid protests against restrictions on personal imports and the import of fruit and vegetables.

Residents of Wadi Halfa warned that the restrictions were driving up the cost of basic goods, squeezing traders and worsening an already difficult economic situation. One resident told  Radio Dabanga that protesters could escalate their action if the authorities failed to respond.

Condemnations of the miners’ deaths have continued across Sudan, with political groups, Resistance Committees, the Sudanese Journalists’ Syndicate and other organisations calling for an investigation and accountability. Activists have also launched a social media campaign under the hashtag #Haq_Al_Dahaba (right of the gold miners), demanding justice for the victims.

The Justice and Equality Movement condemned the deaths of Sudanese miners while also expressing regret over the killing of two Egyptian nationals in Khartoum and the injury of a third. It urged the public to reject disinformation, inflammatory campaigns and unverified casualty figures. 

Int’l Military Attachés Commend Ethiopia’s Defense Measures, Affirm Right to Protect Sovereignty

Addis Ababa, October 17, 2026 (ENA) — Military attachés from several countries have rallied behind Ethiopia’s right to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity, describing the measures taken by the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) to protect the country as encouraging.

The remarks followed a briefing at Bishoftu Air Force base, where foreign military representatives received updates on Ethiopia’s security situation and the developments of the past three weeks.

The attachés said the direct briefing helped address information gaps and clarify reports circulating on social media and other media platforms.

The attachés confirmed Ethiopia’s meticulous measures to protect its sovereignty and thwart any threats. 

They appreciated the government’s openness in providing accurate information to help understand the country’s security situation.

Lieutenant Colonel Gary Wolfenden, the United Kingdom’s Defense Attaché to Ethiopia, South Sudan and the African Union, said the visit provided a clearer picture of recent developments.

He described the measures taken by the ENDF to protect the country as encouraging move. 

Colonel Karen Such, Australia’s Defense Attaché to Ethiopia and the African Union and Vice Dean of the Defense Attachés Association, commended the ENDF’s actions to safeguard Ethiopia’s territorial integrity.

Brigadier General Shariful Islam, Bangladesh’s Defense Attaché, said military representatives had been awaiting reliable information from the Ethiopian government, particularly the Ministry of Defense, following the security developments.

He said the briefing helped clarify the situation and expressed satisfaction with the ENDF’s reported adherence to international laws and regulations.

Kenya’s Defense Attaché, Brigadier General Roba Wario, welcomed the opportunity to receive updated information.

He further stressed that Ethiopia’s security measures must be understood within the context of the law and the shared security interests of neighboring countries.

Defense Attaché of Gabon Embassy in Ethiopia, Colonel Aristide Anguilet, emphasized that protecting national sovereignty, territorial integrity and the safety of citizens and foreign nationals is a fundamental responsibility of any country’s armed forces.

He added that the briefing helped clarify Ethiopia’s position amid misleading information circulating on social media.

Other representatives, including military attachés from South Sudan and Tanzania, highlighted the wider regional implications of Ethiopia’s security and stability. 

Representatives from Bangladesh and Tanzania also commended the ENDF’s reported efforts to comply with international humanitarian and human rights standards and protect civilians.

The attachés further stressed that peace and stability in Ethiopia are closely linked to security across the Horn of Africa.

They also called for international support for Ethiopia’s efforts to restore lasting stability in the region and beyond. 

As ENA learned, the briefing underscores the importance of direct engagement between Ethiopia and the international military community as the country addresses its security challenges, counters misinformation surrounding developments on the ground, and reinforces the imperative of regional stability across the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region.

The Military Attachés Association expressed appreciation to the ENDF’s Directorate of International Relations and Military Cooperation for organizing the briefing.

Egypt’s Strategic Doctrine in Bab el-Mandeb and the Asmara Axis as a Proxy Regime

By Bruno Jomba

October 17, 2026 (ENA) 

For more than a century, Cairo’s policy toward the Horn of Africa and the strategic waters of Bab-el-Mandeb has been defined by a single, zero-sum security doctrine: total control over the Nile Basin and absolute dominance over the maritime choke-points of the Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb. Cairo’s national security framework explicitly securitizes both the Nile River and the Suez–Bab-el-Mandeb maritime corridor, treating any autonomous development along these lifelines as a direct challenge to its hegemony.

Under this strategic view, a strong, unified, and economically thriving Ethiopia—the natural geographic anchor of East Africa, is perceived not as a partner for shared growth, but as an existential threat. To prevent Ethiopia from realizing its true potential and securing its natural position along the Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb corridor, Egypt has consistently sought to project instability onto Ethiopian soil. Whether supporting armed secessionist movements, exploiting internal fractures, or backing anti-state elements across different eras, Cairo's strategy in the Horn of Africa has remained unchanged: keep Ethiopia turned inward, consumed by domestic crises, and stripped of its sovereign maritime reach.

The Asmara Axis: A Proxy Regime Designed to Encircle

The enduring nature of the Shabia regime in Eritrea must be understood within a wider geopolitical framework. During the colonial era, Eritrean patriots fought valiantly against fascist Italian occupation, rallying behind the rallying cry "Ethiopia or Death"—a testament to their desire for unity and independence.

So what happens after Eritrean secession from Ethiopia? Well, the rise of Shabia in Cairo was not merely a domestic development but a calculated geopolitical move aimed at weakening Ethiopia. In the mid-twentieth century, as Ethiopia asserted its sovereignty and regional influence—particularly over the vital Nile headwaters—Egypt sought to extend control over the Red Sea corridor and counter Ethiopia’s growing regional role. By providing safe haven, financial support, and diplomatic infrastructure to exiled political groups and students in Cairo, Egypt effectively fostered a political base that transformed internal grievances into external armed rebellion. State-backed media outlets, such as Cairo-based radio broadcasts, amplified secessionist narratives deep into northern Ethiopia, fueling divisions and eroding national unity. This strategy created a protracted conflict—lasting decades—that drained Ethiopia’s human and material resources, deliberately fragmenting its national fabric and distracting the country from long-term development and regional leadership.

Even after secession from Ethiopia, Shabia instead of channeling its resources into infrastructure, economic development, or the welfare of its citizens, the regime in Asmara turned the state into a tool for regional destabilization. 

The Cairo-backed axis engineered a geopolitical strategy aimed at permanently severing Ethiopia from its historic coastlines at Assab and Massawa. Since its inception, the Eritrean regime has served as a strategic hub for foreign interests intent on keeping Ethiopia landlocked, vulnerable, and economically constrained. Its record across the Horn of Africa speaks volumes: provoking armed clashes with Yemen, engaging in border disputes with Djibouti, waging devastating wars against Ethiopia, and repeatedly intervening in the internal affairs of Sudan and Somalia.

External Aggression in Sudan and Regional Impunity

The real-world consequences of this aggressive intervention are starkly evident across the region today. In Sudan, as the nation suffers through a devastating internal conflict, foreign meddling has reached alarming levels. Recent Egyptian military strikes targeting civilian artisanal gold miners in Sudan—conducted without mercy for human life—demonstrate a severe disregard for international norms and regional sovereignty.

The Sudanese authorities, entangled in an existential conflict, feel compelled to exercise restraint rather than forcefully confront these violations underscores how deeply Egypt exploits regional vulnerabilities to project power without accountability. From the Nile Valley to the Red Sea coast, external interference continues to delay peace and tear apart the social fabric of the Horn.

The Heavy Economic Toll of Forced Landlockedness

The most severe consequence of this geopolitical containment has been the artificial stripping of Ethiopia’s sea access, turning a proud nation of over 135 million people into the most populous landlocked country on Earth.

The loss of Ethiopia’s Red Sea access after 1991 remains an unpardonable betrayal of Ethiopia’s sovereignty. An un-elected transitional administration, lacking any mandate or constitutional authority, unilaterally acquiesced to the separation of Eritrea and the surrender of vital ports like Assab without consulting the Ethiopian people. By endorsing that referendum while denying the nation a voice, this rushed and illegal process stripped a historic power of its coastline without due legal process, leaving over 135 million Ethiopians landlocked and dependent on foreign ports.

Every year, Ethiopia is forced to siphon billions of USD out of its national treasury into foreign port and transit fees. This massive financial drain strips the nation of capital that should be building modern hospitals, expanding universities, constructing industrial parks, and modernizing agriculture. High logistics costs burden domestic producers, make Ethiopian exports less competitive on the global market, and leave the economy vulnerable to external supply chain shocks. Had Ethiopia not been systematically cut off from its maritime outlets, those billions of USD would have been reinvested directly into domestic development, elevating Ethiopia into a vastly larger economic superpower and uplifting the entire Horn region.

Ethiopia's Two-Water Doctrine

To secure its future and guarantee regional stability across the Horn of Africa, the Red Sea, and the Bab-el-Mandeb corridor, Ethiopia stands firmly on its fundamental Two-Water Doctrine:

First, Ethiopia asserts its absolute right to equitably utilize the waters of the Blue Nile. Projects like the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) represent a triumph of self-reliance, designed to generate clean hydro-energy, power regional industrialization, and lift millions out of poverty without harming downstream nations.

Second, Ethiopia maintains its imperative for direct, reliable, and sovereign access to the Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb. Sovereign sea access is not a luxury; it is a core requirement for national defense, economic growth, and regional integration. No sovereign nation of over 135 million people can be expected to accept permanent maritime imprisonment or surrender its natural geographic rights.

A Peaceful Horn Anchored by Ethiopia

Despite decades of foreign intervention, proxy aggression, and deliberate encirclement, Ethiopia remains the resilient anchor state of East Africa. The future of the Horn of Africa, the Red Sea, and the strategic Bab-el-Mandeb must not be dictated by foreign subversion or zero-sum military doctrines.

The peoples of Ethiopia, Sudan, Eritrea, Somalia, and Djibouti share intertwined histories, cultures, and destinies. When Ethiopia thrives, the entire region gains through shared clean energy grids, cross-border trade corridors, and collective security. The Horn of Africa deserves lasting peace, uncompromised sovereignty, and sustainable development—and an empowered, secure Ethiopia with guaranteed access to the sea is the key to unlocking that prosperous future.

Nile and Red Sea Inseparable Pillars Capable of Creating Regional Cooperation, Integration: Researchers

Addis Ababa, October 17, 2026 (ENA) —The Nile River and the Red Sea are inseparable strategic pillars capable of driving regional cooperation, economic integration, and shared security across the Horn of Africa, according to researchers.

The insights were shared during a high-level panel discussion held at the Nile and Red Sea Strategic Forum today.

Opening the panel under the theme “Nile, Red Sea and the New Politics of Survival in the Horn of Africa: Water Geography and Power in a Changing Horn”, Aregawi Berhe, CEO of the Office of the National Council for the Coordination of Public Participation in the Construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), said that the two water bodies are inseparable components that strategically foster cooperation in the region. 

Although the Abay is known as the Blue Nile beyond Ethiopia’s borders, its source lies in Ethiopia, giving the country an undeniable and tangible stake in the river, he noted.  

However, Ethiopia has not benefited equitably from this resource as the country has not yet fully utilized the Blue Nile’s waters, he added.

 Having maintained international relations through the Red Sea for centuries, the CEO pointed out that Ethiopia has a historical and natural connection to the Red Sea. 

He recalled that Ethiopia has developed and utilized ports, including Adulis, Zeila, and Assab, along the Red Sea since ancient times.

Aregawi stated that the Red Sea has long served as a security guarantee for Ethiopia, underscoring that history supports this assertion. 

Ethiopia's separation from the Red Sea was the result of conspiracy, according to the CEO who stressed that respecting Ethiopia's sovereignty and interests requires collective participation.

He underscored the importance of developing a common understanding and urged that Ethiopians must strive for the respect of their sovereignty and national interests.  

Highlighting the evolving geopolitical landscape, Shimelis Hailu, a Maritime Diplomacy Researcher at the Institute of Foreign Affairs, addressed the complexities surrounding the Red Sea. 

He described the region as a vital global shipping lane characterized by both immense economic opportunity and acute security challenges, including illicit activities and the weaponization of maritime chokepoints like Bab el-Mandeb.

The researcher noted that securing diversified, and sustainable access to the sea is an existential necessity for Ethiopia’s long-term economic survival, prosperity, and status as a regional anchor state. 

He outlined three potential modalities for achieving this: de facto sovereign access through shared transit corridors, joint port ownership and co-development, and full sovereign ownership. 

Similarly, Senior African Affairs Researcher at the Institute of Foreign Affairs, Gashaw Ayferam, said water security and maritime access must be evaluated within a unified strategic framework.

He pointed out that the successful completion of the GERD marks a major technical milestone that has been translated into geopolitical and geo-economic victories. 

Nile can play a decisive role in the region’s energy security, agriculture, food production, tourism, and economic development.

In this regard, the Renaissance dam is poised to foster broader geopolitical and economic benefits through regional electricity trade, infrastructure development, and cooperation among Nile Basin countries.

Stressing the need to strengthen regional water governance and establishing effective institutions to ensure equitable and cooperative utilization of the river, he emphasized on transforming Nile water from a source of historical tension into a catalyst for regional integration and cooperation.

The researcher underscored the need for regional cooperation like the Nile River Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) anchored in equitable utilization. 

For his part, Mulugeta Ayele, a Peace and Security Researcher at Addis Ababa University, analyzed the intersection of water diplomacy and maritime strategy under the "politics of survival."

He warned that intersecting security risks, climate pressures, and the rising involvement of global powers underscore the urgency of cooperative governance in the Horn of Africa. 

According to Mulugeta, trans-boundary water resources and maritime access should not inevitably breed conflict, provided that regional actors prioritize institutionalized legal agreements, mutual benefits, and transparent dialogue over zero-sum competition.

He underlined that the future stability of the Horn of Africa relies on shifting the regional paradigm away from competition and toward cooperation, transforming shared natural resources into instruments of collective prosperity and enduring peace.

Egypt Views Ethiopia’s Rise as Strategic Threat, Says Political Scientist Al Mariam

Addis Ababa, October 17, 2026 (ENA) —Egypt’s opposition to Ethiopia’s quest for sovereign Red Sea access and its position on Abay (Nile) waters reflect a broader strategy to constrain Ethiopia’s economic development and regional influence, Ethiopian American scholar Emeritus Professor Alemayehu G. Mariam, underscored. 

Speaking The Pulse of Africa, Al Mariam, who taught at California State University, San Bernardino, said Egypt’s strategic concerns extend beyond water security to the wider balance of power in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region.

He traced Egypt’s ambitions concerning Ethiopia and the Nile Basin to the 1820s, when Egyptian forces advanced through Sudan in an unsuccessful attempt to extend control over the Nile region.

Egypt subsequently launched military expeditions against Ethiopia in 1875 and 1876, suffering defeats at the battles of Gundet and Gura, respectively.

These historical confrontations reflect a longstanding pattern of Egyptian efforts to secure strategic advantages over Ethiopia, particularly regarding the Nile waters originating in the Ethiopian highlands, he stated. 

He argued that successive Egyptian governments have sought to preserve their country’s dominant position in Nile water utilization, while colonial-era agreements and subsequent diplomatic initiatives have been used to reinforce arrangements that Ethiopia considers restrictive.

The professor maintained that Ethiopia’s right to use its natural resources for development has long been at odds with Egypt’s efforts to preserve its historical position on the Nile.

He further argued that Egypt’s strategic calculations extend beyond the river, with Ethiopia’s potential economic transformation and growing regional influence increasingly central to the geopolitical rivalry.

In his assessment, a stronger Ethiopia could emerge as an economic engine for the Horn of Africa, expand its international commercial connections and become a major regional power.

Al Mariam contended that securing reliable access to the Red Sea would strengthen Ethiopia’s economic prospects by expanding trade opportunities, improving access to international markets and supporting the development of commercial corridors.

He argued that Egypt’s opposition to Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions reflects concerns that greater economic and commercial connectivity could enhance Ethiopia’s geopolitical influence.

The professor characterized this opposition as part of an effort to keep Ethiopia economically constrained and limit its emergence as a more influential regional actor.

He also argued that Egypt has increasingly sought to advance its regional interests through political alliances and relationships, particularly involving Eritrea and Sudan, rather than direct military confrontation.

According to Al Mariam, such regional maneuvering risks increasing pressure on Ethiopia and complicating its efforts to achieve domestic stability, economic growth and greater regional influence.

Turning specifically to maritime access, he emphasized that Ethiopia’s landlocked status affects more than its geography, imposing economic costs and limiting its options for international trade.

He pointed to Ethiopia’s historical connection with the Red Sea, including its federation with Eritrea in 1952, to underscore that maritime access has long been a significant issue in the country’s political and economic history.

Al Mariam further noted that reliable access to a seaport could help Ethiopia expand imports and exports, strengthen regional trade and increase its economic weight across the Horn of Africa and the wider Red Sea region.

He also highlighted what he considers a contradiction in Egypt’s position: while Egypt emphasizes its dependence on Nile waters originating largely in Ethiopia, he argued, it opposes Ethiopia’s efforts to secure maritime access.

The professor cited the presence of military bases operated by multiple countries in Djibouti as evidence of the Red Sea region’s strategic importance and the geopolitical interests surrounding maritime routes.

Al Mariam stressed, however, that his criticism is directed at the policies and strategic ambitions of Egypt’s political leadership, not the Egyptian people.

His assessment frames the disputes over Nile waters and Ethiopia’s access to the Red Sea as interconnected dimensions of a broader regional competition involving economic development, resource utilization and geopolitical influence.