Thursday, July 04, 2024

Possible Breakthrough Made in Gaza Ceasefire Deal: Reports

By Al Mayadeen English

The ceasefire talks in Gaza might be heading somewhere as intel suggests that the Israeli occupation agrees to proposals made by the Palestinian Resistance.

The Mossad announced that mediators Qatar and Egypt have conveyed Hamas' updated response to the proposed hostage and ceasefire deal to the Israeli negotiation team, Israeli journalist Barak Ravid reported Wednesday adding that "Israel" was currently examining the response and would provide its answer to the mediators soon.

A senior Israeli official stated that the response from Hamas was constructive and could potentially pave the way for detailed negotiations on the remaining issues, Ravid added.

According to the Israeli journalist citing the official, although there has been important progress, significant challenges remain. He further noted that any detailed negotiations would be tough and lengthy, potentially taking several weeks to reach an agreement.

The Israeli negotiation team is expected to hold discussions over the next few days with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Security Minister Yoav Gallant to formulate a policy regarding Hamas' response and said the policy might see the Israelis heading to Qatar or Egypt to enter more detailed discussions.

The Israeli official highlighted that Hamas' updated response addresses key issues central to the dispute and the lack of a deal thus far.

Despite the progress, the official, according to Ravid, cautioned that there is still a substantial way to go before a final agreement can be reached.

Moreover, Ravid underlined that in the second phase of the deal, outlined and agreed to by Netanyahu and backed by US President Joe Biden, the Israeli occupation forces will be withdrawing from Gaza entirely, including from the Philadelphi axis.

Qatar suggested new ceasefire proposal: NYT

Qatar sent Tuesday new potential amendments to Hamas regarding the proposed hostage deal, according to senior officials from different countries involved in the negotiations, the New York Times reported.

Despite these efforts, major obstacles remain: Hamas demands an end to the war and a full withdrawal of Israeli forces, while the Israeli occupation has pledged to continue fighting until Hamas is destroyed and seeks to control security in Gaza post-war.

The senior officials indicated that the disagreements are now centered on two key points. Hamas wants the initial phase of talks to focus exclusively on the number and identity of Palestinian prisoners to be released in exchange for each remaining hostage. In contrast, the Israeli occupation prefers to keep the discussions open-ended, allowing additional issues to be included, according to the officials.

Hamas fears that the Israeli occupation might sabotage the negotiations by broadening them to cover practically insoluble issues, thereby allowing the Netanyahu regime to continue the war, NYT added. According to the senior officials, the latest Qatari proposal offers Hamas three potential alternatives for the talks.

The senior officials added that Hamas wants language that would prevent the Israeli occupation from unilaterally declaring the collapse of negotiations and resuming hostilities.

Biden admin revising ceasefire deal

The Biden administration has recently proposed revised language for parts of the potential ceasefire agreement between "Israel" and Hamas, according to sources cited in an Axios report.

The report claimed that Hamas had previously rejected the US proposal for a ceasefire. However, it has been repeatedly shown that Netanyahu has no interest in pursuing such a deal, instead opting to achieve his "war objectives" while he suggested a "partial" agreement last week.

The Biden administration's revised proposal, originally based on an Israeli plan approved by "Israel's" war cabinet and endorsed by US President Joe Biden, seeks to maintain its three-phase approach.

Recently, Netanyahu suggested shifting toward a "partial deal" with Hamas, hoping to free some Israeli captives held in the Strip while continuing Tel Aviv's genocidal war.

According to the Axios report, the current focus of US efforts pertains to Article 8 of the ceasefire proposal, which pertains to negotiations between "Israel" and Hamas during the first stage of the deal, which set the conditions for the subsequent stage, including achieving sustainable calm in Gaza.

Hamas wants these negotiations to concentrate on the exchange of Palestinian prisoners for Israeli captives, while "Israel" seeks to address broader issues, such as the demilitarization of Gaza.

US officials have drafted new language for Article 8 to reconcile these differing priorities, and are encouraging Qatar and Egypt to persuade Hamas to accept the revised terms.

Mohammad Nasser: A Leader Who Battled Injuries to Command Resistance

By Al Mayadeen English

Source: Islamic Resistance in Lebanon - Military Media

3 Jul 2024 22:41

Here is a short biography of Hezbollah's martyr leader Mohammad Nehme Nasser, who was assassinated in Tyre on Wednesday.

Hezbollah's Military Media unit released a short biography of martyr Mohammad Nehme Nasser, "Hajj Abu Nehme," one of the Islamic Resistance's most prominent commanders, who was assassinated by the Israeli occupation in Tyre on Wednesday. 

Born on May 6, 1965, in the southern Lebanese town of Hadatha, martyr Nasser was among the first fighters to join the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon, when he officially joined the ranks in 1986 when he was still in his early 20s. 

The martyred leader had taken part in several operations, as part of Hezbollah's struggle to liberate occupied Lebanese towns and villages from the grip of the Israeli military. 

In one such operation, Hajj Abu Nehme was one of several fighters who led the infiltration attack on the Israeli military site in Beit Yahoun, a village that neighbors Hadatha near Beit Jbeil. 

According to Hezbollah's Military Media unit, the martyr was wounded several times during the struggle for liberation, which was achieved on May 25, 2000, which ended nearly 18 years of Israeli occupation. 

The martyr rose up the ranks of Hezbollah's military wing while engaging in several battles across his nearly 40-year career as a Resistance fighter and leader. 

He was also among those who participated in the confrontation of the Israeli war on Lebanon and 2006. 

During his participation in Hezbollah's defense against terror organizations in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon's eastern border, martyr Nasser was yet again wounded on the battlefield in 2015.

The battles on the eastern mountainous range, shared between Lebanon and Syria, were some of the fiercest, due to the complex geographical nature of the region. Hezbollah eventually succeeded in liberating the region from terrorists in 2017. 

Commanding Hezbollah's Aaziz Unit

In 2016 martyr Mohammad Nasser became the commander of one of Hezbollah's territorial units, the Aaziz unit. 

During his career, the martyr received several military awards from Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, recognizing his excellent work on the battlefields.

In the latest and ongoing confrontation of the Israeli occupation, the Battle of Al-Aqsa Flood, martyr Hajj Abu Nehme commanded and oversaw multiple operations against Israeli military sites, bases, infrastructure, and positions. 

Martyrdom, Hezbollah's response

He was martyred alongside his assistant on Wednesday, July 3, 2024, in al-Haouch area in southwest Tyre. 

The assassination of martyr Hajj Abu Nehme is the third instance in which Israeli occupation forces assassinated a top commander in the Islamic Resistance. Martyr Nasser succeeds his fallen comrades and fellow commanders, leader Wissam Hassan Tawil and the commander of Hezbollah's Nasr Unit Talib Sami Abdallah.

As Lebanon prepares to commemorate the lives of another great resistance fighter and leader, Hezbollah's fighters launched four operations in response to the assassination of Hajj Abu Nehme, with more expected to come in the following hours or days. 

Tunisia Sets Elections for October

BY BOUAZZA BEN BOUAZZA AND BARBARA SURK

9:02 AM EDT, July 3, 2024

TUNIS, Tunisia (AP) — Tunisia’s increasingly authoritarian leader has scheduled the next presidential election for October without saying whether he will seek a second term after five tumultuous years at the head of the North African nation once seen as a model of democracy for the Arab world.

President Kais Saied set Oct. 6 for the election in a decree issued late Tuesday, according to a statement from the presidency. Saied’s first term ends on Oct. 23.

The election will be voters’ first chance to evaluate Saied’s tenure amid an economic crisis and the drift into authoritarianism.

Saied ran in 2019 on a populist, anti-corruption platform that energized Tunisians disillusioned with party politics and economic stagnation following the Arab Spring pro-democracy protests that in 2011 toppled the country’s longtime dictator.

However, Saied reversed some of Tunisia’s democratic gains, rewriting the constitution to consolidate his power and jailing critics, including from the largest political parties. Analysts expect he will run for a second, five-year term given that the new constitution grants him full powers.

He also dissolved the parliament two years ago after lawmakers of the Ennahda opposition Islamist party held a virtual session seeking to annul his actions in 2021 to assume sweeping powers.

Saied argued at the time that the country was facing “imminent peril” because of protests and economic vows. He has governed the country by decree ever since.

More than 40 of Saied’s critics and political opponents have been jailed in the past year on various charges of conspiring against the country’s security, including the leader of Ennahda, the largest opposition party.

Earlier this year, its leader, Rached Ghannouchi, was sentenced to three years in prison on allegations that his party relied on foreign financing to bankroll its political campaigns in 2019. The sentence was added to Ghannouchi’s 15-month prison term that a different court handed down last year after he was found guilty of supporting terrorism and inciting hatred.

Tunisia’s main opposition coalition has said it won’t take part in the presidential election unless Saied’s political opponents are freed and judicial independence is restored. The National Salvation Front, a coalition of the main opposition parties that includes Ennahdha, has expressed concern that the election wouldn’t be fair

Several other political leaders have announced their candidacy, including the leader of the right-wing Free Destourian Party, Abir Moussi, who is in custody on suspicion of disturbing public order. Lotfi Mraïhi of the Republican Popular Union party, who unsuccessfully ran for the presidency in 2019, is also running, although authorities have issued a warrant against for alleged money laundering.

___

Surk contributed from Nice, France.

DNC Delegates Sink into ‘Stage of Grief’ Over Biden. Some Say He Should Step Aside.

A pervasive sense of fear and uncertainty has taken hold, according to interviews with more than three dozen DNC delegates.

Some delegates say they are eager to support Vice President Kamala Harris as an alternative and are hopeful that President Joe Biden will make way for her. | Evan Vucci/AP

By ADAM WREN, BRAKKTON BOOKER, NICK REISMAN, JARED MITOVICH, IRIE SENTNER, ISABELLA RAMÍREZ and MELANIE MASON

07/03/2024 04:39 PM EDT

Politico

A pervasive sense of fear and uncertainty about President Joe Biden’s electoral prospects has taken hold among the very Democratic delegates poised to nominate him — even among the many who say they still back him. Some are going so far as to say he should step aside.

One week after Biden’s faceplant in the debate, rank-and-file delegates to the Democratic National Convention insist they are still largely supportive of the president, according to interviews with more than three dozen of them. But they are also grimly shaken — far less confident in the presumptive nominee than they were just a week ago. And in the unlikely scenario he does, there is confusion both about how they would approach the nominating convention next month and who they would coalesce around instead.

Some delegates say they are eager to support Vice President Kamala Harris as an alternative and are hopeful that Biden will make way for her. But others are not sold on Harris and are open to a range of other Democratic prospects instead.

“After watching the debate, I don’t feel like he’s up to the task for four more years, and I think we need to be electing someone who can serve in that capacity for a full term,” said Marilyn Burgess, a Democratic delegate from Harris County, Texas, where she is the county clerk. “I hope he will consider withdrawing and releasing his delegates if he’s on the ballot … I’m his delegate, and I’m going to vote for him, but I think it’s time to look at alternatives and to not just accept that it’s a done deal.”

Can Dems replace Biden? Their options, explained

Biden has clinched nearly all of the roughly 4,000 delegates to the convention — who are bound by “good conscience” to back him. Representing the wishes of voters in their states, these delegates are more than pundits or — as the Biden campaign has derided some detractors — “self-important podcasters” or a “bedwetting brigade.” Rather, they are often some of the party’s most reliable political foot soldiers — the people Biden will need behind him in Chicago.

Many of those delegates are downright doleful.

Valerie Moore, a delegate from South Carolina, the state that reanimated Biden’s then-flailing primary campaign in 2020, said she and her fellow delegates were “in a stage of grief, possibly, or mourning for what was hopefully going to put Trump away in the first debate and that didn’t happen.”

Moore has met Biden twice, most recently in January, and said the 81-year-old president’s debate performance reminded her of her father who died in March at 90 years old, after declining late in life.

A delegate from Texas, granted anonymity to speak freely, said, “I don’t know if I could, in good conscience, support him.” And another South Carolina delegate, granted anonymity to speak freely, lamented the complexities of being a pledged delegate to Biden.

“I’m very quickly reaching a point that I hope his name is not on the ballot, to free up that restraint,” this person said.

The delegate was practically rooting for an open convention: “I think it would be fantastic for the party. I mean think about it: people would watch it. It would get the ratings, it has the drama that people would pay attention to. And if multiple candidates were seeking our nomination, you would have wall-to-wall, week-long, prime time coverage of all of our best rising stars, delivering the party message that, frankly, Joe Biden couldn’t against Donald Trump.”

But even delegates who did not relish such a display and said they remain steadfast in their support for Biden described what they feared would now be a rolling wellness check with each subsequent public Biden appearance.

“What I’m really looking at is: How are his appearances now going forward?” said Irene Bonham, a delegate from Colorado. “What does he look like without the prompter? How are things coming together out there in the field?”

Half a dozen delegates told POLITICO they would look to Harris as Biden’s heir apparent should he withdraw — something Biden has given no indication he plans to do.

“If anything like that were to happen, it’s more likely than not that our Vice President Kamala Harris would be our candidate,” said Samantha Hope Herring, a Florida delegate and elected member of the Democratic National Committee.

But that kind of consensus is far from a certainty, and for as unsettled as many Democrats have become about Biden’s candidacy, it’s not clear who they would move behind, instead. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has disavowed efforts to draft her. California Gov. Gavin Newsom was scheduled to travel to Washington on Wednesday to attend a meeting between Biden and Democratic governors — “to stand with the president,” a spokesperson said. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro said after the debate that Biden is “up to the job.”

“I think Democrats are sort of all across the board, and I feel like there would be so much, there would be a split as to who to choose if it was so open,” said Chaundra Bishop, an Illinois delegate and Urbana councilmember.

Bishop said she is still a Biden supporter, and that if he stepped aside, “I mean, that’s something to really think about. I don’t know. I think it would be maybe even chaotic.”

In a statement to POLITICO, Democratic National Committee Chair Jaime Harrison underscored the majority of Democratic voters backed the president during the primary this year and the delegates have an obligation to reflect those voters’ preference.

“The primary is over, and in every state the will of Democratic voters was clear: Joe Biden will be the Democratic Party’s nominee for President. Delegates are pledged to reflect voters’ sentiment, and over 99% of delegates are already pledged to Joe Biden headed into our convention,” Harrison said.

The Biden campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Facing an unprecedented crisis, Biden’s campaign has moved in recent days to calm nerves across the party. In addition to meeting with Democratic governors, Biden is scheduled to participate in his first post-debate interview, with “Good Morning America” and “This Week” anchor George Stephanopoulos. His campaign was working to add travel to his schedule, potentially with stops in Milwaukee on Friday and Philadelphia over the weekend.

One delegate granted anonymity to describe private conversations said the Biden campaign reached out to them to make sure they still support the president.

But the damage control appears to be uneven. Some other delegates who spoke with POLITICO said they have yet to hear from Biden or his campaign.

Bob Mulholland, a veteran California political adviser who served on the DNC for 28 years and who will be attending his 13th national convention, said he has not heard from anyone attached to the campaign, nor has any other delegate he has talked to.

Mulholland remains steadfast in his support for Biden, declaring that “one debate does not make a campaign.”

Brandon Scott, the mayor of Baltimore and a Maryland Delegate, reflected the majority consensus of delegates reached by POLITICO who said they remain firmly behind Biden, saying he’s not currently contemplating contingency candidates.

“Now, if that changes, it changes, but at this point, I’m not,” Scott said.

Or as Bonham, the Colorado delegate who said she has been brushing up on convention rules in anticipation of “intrigue”, put it: “We’re not happy with the performance, but I don’t know that we’re quite ready to abandon ship yet.”

At a minimum, that ship has become far more difficult to steady in the week since the debate. In Wisconsin, Marcelia Nicholson, chair of the Milwaukee County Board of Supervisors, said the debate was “kind of sobering, I think, for folks to see his age play out,” arguing that delegates’ responsibility is to elect an administration, not just one man.

In California, Igor Tregub, a Berkeley City Council member and chair of the Alameda County Democrats, said that while he is staying loyal to Biden, he has received emails and texts from fellow Democrats in his county party asking him to relay to the national party that they want an open convention.

And in New York, Democratic House candidate George Latimer, who won a bruising primary against Rep. Jamaal Bowman last week, said, “Now the question is what we saw on Thursday night indicative of who he is every single day? If it is, we’ve got a major problem … But then I heard him speak the next day when he appeared in some places; he looked vigorous proportionate to his age.”

“He has to show, and we’ll see whether he does or doesn’t over the next few weeks, that he has the vigor and he has the acuity,” Latimer said. “He may be able to do it, he may not be able to do it. I tend to think he will, but I don’t know. We’ll see.”

Some delegates are already looking for an exit. A California delegate, granted anonymity to discuss their inclination freely, predicted Trump would win in November.

The delegate said of Biden, “I’m hoping he steps aside and plays a grand role at the convention — but not as being president.”

Holly Otterbein, Lara Korte, Kierra Frazier and Heidi Przybyla contributed to this report.

‘Everybody’s in Panic Mode’ as House Democrats Scramble After Debate

At least one letter circulating among House Democrats would call on Biden to end his campaign.

President Joe Biden walks off stage after the debate.

Fears about Joe Biden’s ability to mount a presidential campaign that spread in the immediate wake of the debate have spiked significantly this week and started to spill into public view.

By ALLY MUTNICK, JENNIFER HABERKORN, ADAM CANCRYN, NICHOLAS WU, ELENA SCHNEIDER and DANIELLA DIAZ

Politico

07/03/2024 04:46 PM EDT

House Democrats are growing increasingly panicked about the 2024 election in the aftermath of Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance — and furious at the president’s response.

Two safe-seat members have already publicly urged Biden out. Two of the most endangered Democrats told local news outlets they’ve already written off Biden’s chances to win in November.

Behind the scenes, things are even more frenzied. There are multiple drafts of letters circulating among House Democrats and at least one would call on Biden to end his campaign, according to five people familiar with the efforts.

Even for Congress, where rumors constantly fly around the Capitol, this week has been remarkably chaotic, exacerbated by the fact that members are not in session and have been scrambling to connect with each other remotely.

“Everybody’s in panic mode, and I don’t even know what to say,” said one senior Democratic House lawmaker, who has sought to help manage the conference-wide fallout.

“The Frontliners are really worried,” the lawmaker added, using House Democrats’ branding for their most electorally vulnerable members.

The cloak-and-dagger plotting, careful parsing of words in cable TV hits and public pleas for Biden to prove himself in more public settings underscore the growing sense among House Democrats that the situation is untenable.

The debate — and the campaign’s handling of its aftermath — have left swing-seat Democrats deeply shaken and increasingly convinced that Biden’s weakness at the top of the ticket could fuel a complete wipeout down-ballot.

“Everybody wants him to quit. There’s a sense of despair. I think people don’t understand how we get out of this hole. And we’re hurtling toward losing to Trump,” said one House Democrat granted anonymity to shed light on private conversations. “All my text chains in Congress go from a dark humor to ‘let’s take action.’ … I don’t find any discernible group of people who actually believe we’re going to win with Joe Biden.”

But no one can agree on what to do.

Some are waiting for clearer polling data or other signs. Others were hoping to talk to more of their colleagues and advisers. But next Monday loomed for many as an informal deadline. The House will return from its July 4 recess, and members will gather again in one place, increasing the likelihood of collective action that could give everyone cover.

In the meantime, members have been forced to privately discuss their courses of action in group chats and phone calls — with a shift in tone playing out in TV hits and interviews back home in their districts.

The fears about Biden’s ability to mount a presidential campaign that spread in the immediate wake of the debate have spiked significantly this week and started to spill into public view.

Rep. Lloyd Doggett of Texas, a progressive who represents the heart of Austin, became the first sitting House Democrat to call for Biden to exit the race. A day later he was joined by Rep. Raul Grijalva of Arizona.

Two Democrats in red districts, Reps. Jared Golden of Maine and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington state, said the debate made clear that Biden could not beat Trump. Golden said confidently that democracy would survive a second Donald Trump presidency — an argument that undermines his own party’s core message. Neither explicitly called on Biden to bow out.

Rep. Mike Quigley (D-Ill.) raised concerns on CNN about the down-ballot effects of Biden’s candidacy: “I just want him to appreciate at this time just how much this impacts not just his race but all the other races coming in November.”

And swing-seat Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) said at a news conference that she has asked the campaign to make Biden more present in the coming days while also giving him space to “think about whether he wants to continue moving forward.”

Biden knows he needs to 'reassure' voters post-debate, says campaign

On a call with campaign staff on Wednesday, Biden reiterated his commitment to staying in the race, adding “no one’s pushing me out.” Biden has also announced additional campaign stops, a press conference during next week’s NATO summit and is also set to sit down for a taped interview with ABC News.

For many Democrats, just as concerning as Biden’s performance has been his team’s attempts at damage control: a combination of dismissals, rebukes and nothing-to-see-heres that only further deepened the campaign’s credibility concerns among lawmakers.

“Biden’s surrogates calling all of us ‘bedwetters’ is backfiring more than helping,” one Democrat said.

Democrats expressed frustration about the close circle that has enveloped Biden and the lack of outreach from the White House or the campaign from how they’re going to right the ship. It took days for Biden to call either House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, whom he phoned Tuesday, or Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who spoke with the president on Wednesday. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Biden also spoke with Speaker emeritus Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) and Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.).

House Democratic leaders plan to hold a call at 5 p.m. Wednesday.

Mia McCarthy and Sarah Ferris contributed.

US Political Uncertainty Crashes Central Bank Retreat in Portugal

Reports of financial chaos in France have been vastly overstated, Europe’s economic elite say. Instead, the U.S. election is the one to watch.

Among their concerns was that a victory by Donald Trump could see the U.S. abandon Ukraine to its fate while burdening Europe — already suffering from chronic low growth — with the cost of defending the would-be EU member in its ongoing war against Russia. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

JULY 3, 2024 11:42 PM CET

BY BEN MUNSTER, Politico

SINTRA, Portugal — When Europe’s most powerful technocrats gathered this week at a secluded mountain resort near Lisbon to discuss their deepest concerns, you'd have expected them to focus on the election in nearby France. 

But instead their gaze was fixed on developments across the Atlantic, where uncertainty over the direction of the world’s largest economy has been growing since U.S. President Joe Biden’s poor showing at a debate last week against Republican rival Donald Trump. 

“I think everybody in Europe is watching the U.S. elections,” one participant said. “Concern about France would be related to the high cost of borrowing — [whereas] concern about Donald Trump is concern about the fragmentation of the global economy.” 

The person, as with every Sintra invitee interviewed for this story, asked to remain anonymous on the grounds that central bankers — and other financial policymakers —  have a tradition of independence that bars them from commenting on national politics. Even as political turmoil intrudes ever more on their turf.

Since Sunday's first round of voting in the French general election, much of the European establishment has been fixating on the prospect of political breakdown in the country. A final election round on July 7 may yet reward the far right with control of parliament for the first time in the country’s postwar history. 

But at this year’s ECB Forum on Central Banking — an annual elite gathering near the town of Sintra featuring top central bankers from four continents — the prospect of French financial turmoil drew a collective “meh.”

In private discussions — including over veal rump with rosemary, seabass and creamy salmon — mention of France elicited at most a shrug, with some policymakers even confessing they weren't following the situation that closely. 

One official on the ECB’s Governing Council dismissed the threat out of hand, telling POLITICO that the leadership of Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) would be moderated by power — just as Italian PM Giorgia Meloni has been so far. 

“If something disorderly happens, we would do as necessary but [currently] it doesn't look to be of extreme and major concern,” another Governing Council member told POLITICO.

Part of the initial worry for policymakers was that an RN majority, under Le Pen protégé Jordan Bardella, would roll out major new spending plans and thwart President Emmanuel Macron’s efforts to bring down France’s deficit. However, turbulence in French bond markets has faded since Bardella watered down some of his spending proposals, with one participant noting the drama was par for the course in an election period. 

“The road to fiscal salvation is going to be bumpy — you will [inevitably] go through phases of dramatization, that’s unavoidable,” the person said. 

At the same time, multiple ECB officials suggested to POLITICO that Frankfurt would be ready to deploy its crisis-fighting powers — the so-called Transmission Protection Instrument — should things go south. 

Washington worries 

Instead, those gathered at the opulent Ritz-Carlton Penha Longa resort were fretting about events across the Atlantic, which — unlike affairs in France — they are powerless to influence.

Among their concerns was that a victory by Trump could see the U.S. abandon Ukraine to its fate while burdening Europe — already suffering from chronic low growth — with the cost of defending the would-be EU member in its ongoing war against Russia. 

It's still not clear that Trump would turn his back on Kyiv — and that, perhaps, is the worst part. “Trump comes with lots of uncertainty,” said the Governing Council member quoted above. “And you never know if that is going to be good or bad.”

Others worried that Trump’s trade and economic policy, with a fresh dose of tax cuts, would accentuate both the protectionist drift and the fiscal slippage seen in the U.S. over the last four years under Biden.

In a panel discussion Tuesday, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius warned that Trump’s proposed blanket tariff of 10 percent on imported goods — and up to 60 percent on Chinese goods — would ultimately have a bigger impact on Europe, potentially depressing its economic growth by as much as 1 percent, as opposed to 0.5 percent in the U.S.

The U.S. was by far the top destination for European exports last year, taking nearly 20 percent of the total, according to Eurostat.

“The key is trade policy uncertainty,” Hatzius said. “We consistently find that the euro area is more susceptible than the U.S.”

But, as much of the academic discussion at the Sintra gathering made clear, the U.S. election is only one of many variables that might further convulse the global economy. 

“People are broadly concerned that the world as we know it is going away,” another attendee said. “At the same time, what cannot last forever cannot last forever.”

Weighing on the gathering was the risk that an international trade war pitting Europe and the U.S. against China will be difficult for Europe to win, especially if the two sides of the Atlantic are not aligned in their approaches. As the participant quoted above told POLITICO, Europe is far more dependent on Chinese exports than is the U.S., and has already suffered economic damage after tentatively joining the U.S.-led tit-for-tat over Chinese-made electric vehicles. 

The calculus, the participant said, is that waging a trade war at the behest of the U.S. is a reasonable price to pay to keep the U.S. onside in the proxy war against Russia. But should a Trump administration leave Europe high and dry as it withdraws from Europe to focus on its own economic health, that bargain could be exposed as catastrophically self-defeating.

Wednesday, July 03, 2024

Boston Globe Editorial Board Calls on Biden to End His Campaign

“The nation’s confidence has been shaken.”

President Joe Biden pauses during the CNN Presidential Debate.

Democrats have overwhelmingly offered public support for Biden’s campaign while panning his debate performance. | Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

By KELLY GARRITY

07/03/2024 02:46 PM EDT

The Boston Globe urged President Joe Biden to bow out of the presidential race Wednesday, citing a lack of sufficient explanation for Biden’s “historically bad” debate performance last week.

“In the days since last week’s presidential debate, President Biden’s team has said little that adequately explains why his performance was historically bad, beyond that he had a cold,” the editorial board wrote in a column published almost a week after Biden stuttered and stumbled his way through his first debate of the 2024 election. “What we mostly heard instead was the closing of ranks around a beleaguered and wounded candidate.”

The Globe is the latest in a flurry of news outlets — including the New York Times — to use its editorial pages to urge Biden to step aside. While the Biden campaign, the White House and several top Democratic elected officials have publicly pitched Biden as the Democratic party’s best hope for defeating former President Donald Trump — and warned of the myriad risks of trying to replace him at the top of the ticket — the greater risk, the board wrote, is “lies in allowing Biden to continue as the party’s standard-bearer.”

“The nation’s confidence has been shaken,” the board wrote, and the question still remaining goes beyond whether or not the president can win to whether or not he can rule.

Democrats have overwhelmingly offered public support for Biden’s campaign while panning his debate performance. But in recent days some have shifted their tone, criticizing the campaign for dismissing voter concerns about Biden’s candidacy and calling for Biden to do more to tamp down those worries. In the past 24 hours, some Democrats have suggested that if Biden drops out, viable alternatives like Kamala Harris could swoop in. The board said as much Wednesday:

“A bevy of potential candidates — from Vice President Kamala Harris to the governors of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and California, to name only a partial list — are waiting in the wings to take on Trump. All that they need is for Biden to graciously bow out of the race and free his delegates to cast their votes for someone else at the Democratic National Convention,” the board wrote.

Top Democrats now need to step up to persuade Biden to call it quits, the board wrote, naming former presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, former House speaker Nancy Pelosi; and South Carolina Rep. James Clyburn, “the man who did more than anyone to make Biden the nominee in 2020.”

Biden’s legacy is on the line, the board claims. “If he leaves the race now, his party will hail him as a hero. If he stays in and loses, it will be a disaster for the country.”

A Biden campaign spokesperson did not return a request for comment.

The Debate Hurt Biden, but the Real Shift Has Been Happening for Years

A 3-point move toward Trump in a new Times/Siena poll is not a fundamental change in the race, but it adds to longstanding concerns.

By Nate Cohn, New York Times

July 3, 2024

4:01 p.m. ET

In the wake of the first presidential debate, a chorus of top Biden allies and campaign officials has advanced a simple message: The race has not fundamentally changed.

In a sense, they’re right.

The latest New York Times/Siena College poll on Wednesday finds that, far from upending the contest, the debate reinforced the central dynamic of the election: the political decline of President Biden, who no longer possesses the advantages that allowed him to defeat Donald J. Trump four years ago.

Overall, the poll finds Mr. Trump leading Mr. Biden by six percentage points among likely voters and nine points among registered voters nationwide. In each case, it’s a three-point shift toward Mr. Trump since the last Times/Siena survey, taken immediately before the debate.

Historically, a three-point shift after the first debate isn’t unusual. In fact, it’s the norm. Over the last seven presidential elections, the person generally considered the winner of the first presidential debate has gained an average of three points in post-debate polls. Sometimes, the shift lasts; other times, it fades. But either way, debates don’t usually fundamentally change a race.

In terms of the polling, this debate is not an exception — at least not yet. The debate may ultimately prove to be the breaking point for Democratic politicians considering whether to stand by Mr. Biden, but the poll doesn’t show that the debate completely upended public opinion about the candidates. Instead, the debate exacerbated Mr. Biden’s political liabilities, which had already imperiled his re-election chances.

Four years ago, it was the absence of any major political liabilities that allowed Mr. Biden to prevail over Mr. Trump. He won the Democratic nomination and ultimately the presidency because he was a well-liked, relatively moderate, broadly acceptable candidate who could unite the politically diverse voters who disliked Mr. Trump. At the time, polls showed that a majority of voters had a favorable view of Mr. Biden. It was just enough for him to narrowly prevail in the Electoral College — by less than one percentage point across deciding battleground states.

Mr. Biden is not a broadly acceptable candidate anymore, the polling shows, and as a consequence he no longer leads Mr. Trump. Long before the debate, his approval and favorability ratings plunged deep into the danger zone for an incumbent. More ominously, his numbers were falling even though the conditions for a Biden comeback always seemed to be around the corner. Inflation was subsiding. The general election was heating up. On paper, an incumbent should have been the favorite — and his opponent was a candidate accused of multiple crimes, and recently convicted of a felony.

But today, his approval rating stands nearly a net 10 points lower than it was ahead of the 2022 midterm election, when inflation was over 7 percent. With the economy and consumer confidence improved since then, perhaps the best remaining explanation for this steady erosion is growing concern about his age.

By every measure, the poll finds that the debate took yet another toll on the public’s already diminished view of him. His favorability rating fell two points after the debate, to 36 percent from 38 percent. By contrast, it was 52 percent in the final Times/Siena poll before the 2020 election.

The share of voters who said Mr. Biden is “just too old to be an effective president” rose five points, to 74 percent from 69 percent pre-debate. Only 36 percent said Mr. Biden was too old in June 2020.

These modest shifts after a debate aren’t necessarily significant in the grand scheme of things. It’s certainly not a “fundamental” change. What is fundamental is a 15- or 30-point shift over four years. While Mr. Biden sometimes performs better than he did last week, the long-term trend suggests that the accumulated effect of countless interviews, speeches, photographs and social media posts has left much of the public with the impression that he is no longer as well equipped to serve as president.

For much of the cycle, the optimistic case for Mr. Biden rested on the assumption that voters would increasingly focus on Mr. Trump’s shortcomings once the campaign intensified. In this view, disengaged voters would tune in and vote on democracy and abortion, as many did in the midterm election.

Indeed, Mr. Trump remains just as unpopular as he was four years ago. In fact, the share of voters with a favorable view of Mr. Trump is almost exactly the same after the debate (43 percent among likely voters) as it has been in Times/Siena polls so far this year (44 percent); and as it was ahead of the midterms (43 percent); or as it was before the 2020 presidential election (44 percent).

But in last week’s debate, Mr. Biden was not able to make good on that optimistic case. Millions of voters tuned into a matchup between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump, and the focus ended up on Mr. Biden’s age — and will be focused on that topic for days or weeks ahead — rather than on the issues that could win him the election.

Historically, shifts in the polls after debates can be fleeting. The candidates considered the losers might rebound in the next debate or manage to turn attention back on their opponent. With many Democrats agonizing over whether to stand by Mr. Biden, it’s hard to see how the race will veer away from questions about the president’s age anytime soon. Worse, Mr. Biden’s performance suggests he might not be able to convince skeptics he’s fit for the job. But should Mr. Biden succeed in satisfying his party’s concerns, Mr. Trump’s low favorable ratings suggest there’s still a path for a closer race.

The Times/Siena data offers less evidence to support another reason polls can shift after a debate: the tendency for the consensus winner’s supporters to respond to polls in outsize numbers. In contrast with the pre-debate poll, Democrats and Republicans responded to this week’s poll in nearly equal numbers (accounting for race), just as they have in almost every Times/Siena poll in the past year. If our last poll was indeed slightly too favorable toward Mr. Trump, it’s possible he’s gained even more ground than the three-point shift shown here.

There’s no way to be sure whether Mr. Biden’s age is his sole problem, a major problem or just one of many problems. Perhaps the lingering resentment over high prices and the border would still give Mr. Trump a lead against a hypothetical young Mr. Biden. The economy, after all, remains the No. 1 issue for voters in the poll. Or perhaps voters are yearning for changes that they doubt Mr. Biden and the Democrats — who have held the White House for going on 12 of the last 16 years — can provide.

But if Mr. Biden can’t convince voters — or Democrats — that he’s fit for the presidency, the other challenges might not matter.

Biden Tells Allies He Knows He Has Only Days to Salvage Candidacy

The president’s conversations are the first indication that he is seriously considering whether he can recover after a devastating debate performance. The White House said he had not spoken about leaving the race.

President Biden understands that he faces an uphill battle to convince voters, donors and the political class that his debate performance was an anomaly, allies said.Credit...Doug Mills/The New York Times

By Katie Rogers

Katie Rogers covers the White House and reported from Washington.

July 3, 2024

9:45 p.m. ET

President Biden has told key allies that he knows the coming days are crucial and understands that he may not be able to salvage his candidacy if he cannot convince voters that he is up to the job after a disastrous debate performance last week.

According to two allies who have spoken with him, Mr. Biden has emphasized that he is still deeply committed to the fight for re-election but understands that his viability as a candidate is on the line.

The president sought to project confidence on Wednesday in a call with his campaign staff, even as White House officials were trying to calm nerves among the ranks inside the Biden administration.

“No one’s pushing me out,” Mr. Biden said in the call. “I’m not leaving.”

Vice President Kamala Harris was also on the line.

“We will not back down. We will follow our president’s lead,” she said. “We will fight, and we will win.”

Still, Mr. Biden’s allies said that the president had privately acknowledged that his next few appearances heading into the July 4 holiday weekend must go well, particularly an interview scheduled for Friday with George Stephanopoulos of ABC News and campaign stops in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

“He knows if he has two more events like that, we’re in a different place” by the end of the weekend, said one of the allies, referring to Mr. Biden’s halting and unfocused performance in the debate. That person, who talked to the president in the past 24 hours, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive situation.

The accounts of his conversations with allies are the first indication to become public that the president is seriously considering whether he can recover after a devastating performance on the debate stage in Atlanta last Thursday.

A new poll from The New York Times and Siena College showed that former President Donald J. Trump now leads Mr. Biden 49 percent to 43 percent among likely voters nationally, a three-point swing toward the Republican from just a week earlier, before the debate. The six-point deficit underscored the growing challenges to the campaign and could make it harder to hang on, although some insiders had worried that it could have been worse.

Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House press secretary, said that the president told her directly that he had not talked to allies about dropping out of the race.

“That is absolutely false,” she said during the briefing. While batting down speculation about Mr. Biden stepping down, Ms. Jean-Pierre also referred to Ms. Harris, who is seeing a surge of support among Democrats, as “the future of the party.”

One of Mr. Biden’s allies, a top adviser to him, who also spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the president was “well aware of the political challenge he faces.”

That person said Mr. Biden was aware that the outcome of his campaign could be different from what he is fighting for. Mr. Biden, that person said, believes he is an effective leader who is mentally sharp and “doesn’t get how others don’t accept that.”

The Times reported on Tuesday that several current and former officials and others who encountered the president behind closed doors noticed that he increasingly appeared confused or listless, or would lose the thread of conversations, in the weeks and months before the debate.

Mr. Biden still adamantly views his debate showing as a bad performance, the person said, not a revelatory event about his capacity to do the job for four more years.

Key party donors have been privately calling House members, senators, super PACs, the Biden campaign and the White House to say that they think Mr. Biden should step down, according to Democrats familiar with the discussion. On Wednesday, Reed Hastings, the Netflix co-founder who in recent years has become one of the biggest donors to the Democratic Party, called on Mr. Biden to relinquish his place at the top of the ticket.

“Biden needs to step aside to allow a vigorous Democratic leader to beat Trump and keep us safe and prosperous,” he said in an email to The Times.

An elected Democrat, speaking on the condition of anonymity given the political sensitivities, said the decision was still ultimately up to Mr. Biden. “The only thing that matters is his decision on whether or not he’s going to let it go,” that person said.

Inside the White House, senior officials tried to calm nerves in a staff-wide conference call. Jeff Zients, the White House chief of staff, told members of the president’s staff that they should keep their heads down and “execute, execute, execute.” Mr. Zients also told them to “hold their heads up” and be proud, a contradiction that he admitted had an element of humor to it.

Later in the day, Mr. Zients appeared on a separate call, a weekly check-in among Mr. Biden’s cabinet officials and echoed much of the talking points he shared with staff members, according to a person familiar with the call.

Mr. Biden had been slow to personally reach out to key Democrats to assuage their concerns, which had fueled anger in the party and frustrated some of his own advisers.

According to Ms. Jean-Pierre, the president has now “connected with” Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the Democratic leader in the House; Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the majority leader; Representative Nancy Pelosi of California, the former speaker; Representative James E. Clyburn of South Carolina; and Senator Chris Coons of Delaware.

The president had lunch with Ms. Harris at the White House, and later the pair met with Democratic governors. Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota told reporters at the White House that the group had an “honest” conversation with the president, and that the governors “have his back.”

Mr. Walz, who also declared the president “fit for office,” added, “A path to victory in November is the No. 1 priority, and that’s the No. 1 priority of the president.”

But although the governors presented a united front in support of Mr. Biden following the meeting, more than half a dozen governors expressed concerns during the session, according to one person briefed on what took place and another person.

Gov. Janet Mills of Maine bluntly told Mr. Biden that his age was fine but that people did not think he was up to running, according to one of the people briefed on what had happened.

Democratic leaders in the House and Senate were not urging their members to rally around Mr. Biden on Wednesday. Instead, they were listening to myriad complaints about the president’s handling of the situation from across the party, including its centrist wing and its progressives. Key donors expressed exasperation that he did not join a campaign call on Monday meant to assuage them. And some Democrats have grown increasingly suspicious that the president’s team has not been fully forthcoming about the impact that aging has had on him.

Representative Debbie Dingell, a Michigan Democrat, said during an interview on MSNBC that Mr. Biden still must do more to address the public rather than continue to huddle with advisers.

“He’s got to show the American people that he can do this job,” she said. “He can’t be wrapped in bubble right now.”

Several allies of Mr. Biden have underscored that he is still in the fight of his political life and that he largely sees this moment as a chance to come back from being counted out, as he has done many times throughout his half-century career. At the same time, they said, he is cleareyed about how uphill the battle will be to convince voters, donors and the political class that his debate performance was an anomaly and is not disqualifying.

Some of the president’s advisers have grown increasingly pessimistic in the past day or so as unrest in the party has continued to grow, a reflection of unhappiness not just over the debate performance but the handling of it since then.

Much of Mr. Biden’s family, including his son Hunter Biden and Jill Biden, the first lady, remain supportive of the president continuing his campaign.

“Because there’s a lot of talk out there,” Dr. Biden told a crowd celebrating the opening of a campaign office on the outskirts of Traverse City, Mich., “let me repeat what my husband has said plainly and clearly: Joe is the Democratic nominee, and he is going to beat Donald Trump just like he did in 2020.”

Mr. Biden’s team had sought to build a firewall by persuading elected Democrats and well-known party figures not to publicly call on him to drop out.

But Representative Lloyd Doggett of Texas became the first Democratic member of Congress to say on Tuesday that the president should step aside. Two others — Representatives Jared Golden of Maine and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington — said they believed he would lose in November.

In a statement on Wednesday evening, Representative Seth Moulton, Democrat of Massachusetts, cast doubt over Mr. Biden’s chances of winning in November.

“I deeply respect President Biden and all the great things he has done for America, but I have grave concerns about his ability to defeat Donald Trump,” he said. “Winning will require prosecuting the case in the media, in town halls and at campaign stops all over the country. President Biden needs to demonstrate that he can do that. The unfortunate reality is that the status quo will likely deliver us President Trump.”

Others have indicated privately that they may follow suit and speak out.

Trump Widens Lead After Biden’s Debate Debacle, Times/Siena Poll Finds

Donald Trump is ahead of President Biden by six percentage points among likely voters in a new national survey. Overall, 74 percent of voters view Mr. Biden as too old for the job, an uptick since the debate.

Note: The margin of sampling error for likely voters is plus or minus 2.9 points. For registered voters it is plus or minus 2.8 points.Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,532 voters nationwide conducted from June 28 to July 2, 2024.By Lily Boyce

By Shane Goldmacher, New York Times

July 3, 2024

3:53 p.m. ET

Donald J. Trump’s lead in the 2024 presidential race has widened after President Biden’s fumbling debate performance last week, as concerns that Mr. Biden is too old to govern effectively rose to new heights among Democrats and independent voters, a new poll from The New York Times and Siena College showed.

Mr. Trump now leads Mr. Biden 49 percent to 43 percent among likely voters nationally, a three-point swing toward the Republican from just a week earlier, before the debate. It is the largest lead Mr. Trump has recorded in a Times/Siena poll since 2015. Mr. Trump leads by even more among registered voters, 49 percent to 41 percent.

Doubts about Mr. Biden’s age and acuity are widespread and growing. A majority of every demographic, geographic and ideological group in the poll — including Black voters and those who said they will still be voting for him — believe Mr. Biden, 81, is too old to be effective.

Overall, 74 percent of voters view him as too old for the job, up five percentage points since the debate. Concerns about Mr. Biden’s age have spiked eight percentage points among Democrats in the week since the debate, to 59 percent. The share of independent voters who said they felt that way rose to 79 percent, nearly matching the Republican view of the president.

How polls have changed since the debate

The poll offers early empirical evidence of what many Democrats have feared: That Mr. Biden’s faltering debate performance has further imperiled his chances against Mr. Trump this fall. Some Democratic lawmakers and donors are raising questions about Mr. Biden’s fitness following his struggles to finish his thoughts or articulate a vision during the debate, and they are demanding that Mr. Biden prove for a skeptical public that he is capable of serving until he is 86.

There were a couple of faint glimmers of good news for Mr. Biden in the poll.

One was that he narrowed Mr. Trump’s edge among independent voters, even if that gain was more than offset by his erosion among Democrats and Mr. Trump’s improvement among Republicans. Another was that the share of Democratic voters who think Mr. Biden should no longer be the nominee ticked up, but by far less than the rising Democratic concern about his age. The first calls from Capitol Hill lawmakers for him to step aside came on Tuesday.

Overall, more voters thought Mr. Biden should remain the Democratic nominee — but only because more Republicans, perhaps emboldened after the debate, said they now want him as their opponent.

THE NEW YORK TIMES/SIENA COLLEGE POLL

Do you think Joe Biden should remain the Democratic Party’s nominee for president, or should there be a different Democratic nominee for president?

Do you think Donald Trump should remain the Republican Party’s nominee for president, or should there be a different Republican nominee for president?

“If this was a boxing match, it would have been a T.K.O. in the first round — please somebody stop this already,” George Lee, a 44-year-old health care adviser in Brooklyn, said of watching Mr. Biden suffer rhetorical punch after punch at the debate. “He doesn’t have his wits about him. That’s clear from last week. They’ve been saying it for a long time, but the world saw it.”

Mr. Lee, a Democrat, said he wished Mr. Biden would step aside but that he would still vote for him to stop Mr. Trump. He fretted, “There’s no way he’s going to win now.”

The poll also showed the depth of concern for Mr. Biden’s fitness. Half of voters go much further than thinking Mr. Biden is too old to be effective: A full 50 percent agree that his “age is such a problem that he is not capable of handling the job of president,” including 55 percent of independent voters.

Voters have some concern about Mr. Trump’s age, too, but far less than for Mr. Biden’s.

After the debate, 42 percent of voters view Mr. Trump as too old for the job, an increase of three points from a week prior that was driven heavily by Democrats. Only 19 percent of voters said Mr. Trump was so old he was not capable of handling the job.

One of the more interesting findings in the poll was that men accounted for virtually all of Mr. Trump’s post-debate gains.

Mr. Trump has made appeals to machismo a centerpiece of his 2024 campaign, making his first public appearance after his felony conviction related to paying hush money to a porn star a visit to a U.F.C. fight, for instance.

In the pre-debate poll, Mr. Trump had led among likely male voters by 12 percentage points. After the debate, his lead among men ballooned to 23 points. That movement was particularly concentrated among younger men and men without college degrees.

Mr. Biden’s five-point edge among likely women voters before the debate actually ticked up slightly, to eight points.

Those who said they had watched the CNN debate, which was held in Atlanta, said Mr. Trump outperformed Mr. Biden, 60 percent to 22 percent.

Only 16 percent of voters said Mr. Biden did well, and a meager 3 percent said he did very well. In an era of intense partisanship, even Democrats felt that Mr. Biden had flopped.

About one-third of Democrats said Mr. Biden did well compared to 89 percent of Republicans who said the same of Mr. Trump.

The debate was watched live by more than 50 million Americans, and 59 percent of voters said they had tuned in. Only 10 percent said they had not heard about the debate, 15 percent said they had heard about it and another 16 percent said they had watched clips afterward.

It was that last cohort, the clip-watchers, whose view of Mr. Biden’s age problem was the most acute, perhaps because some of Mr. Biden’s most incoherent answers quickly went viral.

Around 80 percent of those who watched clips or heard about the debate but did not watch live thought Mr. Biden was too old. Voters who watched the debate live or did not watch at all were in the low 70 percentage range.

The Times/Siena survey before the debate had appeared more favorable to Mr. Trump than the national average of polls at the time. One explanation had been that Republicans had been more responsive than Democrats when called for that survey, perhaps a sign of enthusiasm after Mr. Trump’s conviction. A higher response rate for a particular group is not necessarily an indicator of an inaccurate result. But even so, in this new survey, response rates between the parties returned to their usual level of parity.

The Biden campaign, in an internal staff memo on Wednesday, braced aides for potential poor polling and the Times/Siena poll, in particular.

“Polls are a snapshot in time and we should all expect them to continue to fluctuate,” wrote Julie Chavez Rodriguez, the campaign manager, and Jen O’Malley Dillon, the campaign chair. They said internal metrics showed the race within the margin of error. The campaign had previously released a post-debate poll showing Mr. Biden trailing Mr. Trump, but the campaign said the margin had not changed since before the debate.

In the Times/Siena poll, when voters were asked about possible third-party and independent candidates, Mr. Trump’s lead expanded by two percentage points in the last week. Mr. Trump was ahead of Mr. Biden 42 percent to 37 percent after the debate when the survey included six potential candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who earned 8 percent support. Mr. Trump had led 40 percent to 37 percent before the debate.

The 2024 race pits two nominees who are historically unpopular against each other, and the unfavorable ratings of both candidates rose slightly after the debate. Mr. Biden’s rose to 61 percent, and Mr. Trump’s to 55 percent.

The Biden campaign had hoped that the debate — and seeing Mr. Trump onstage in a way he hasn’t been seen since he occupied the White House — would pull some of the Democratic voters who have been reluctant to support Mr. Biden in 2024 back into the fold.

The poll, which like all others is a snapshot in time, did not show any Democratic consolidation.

Mr. Biden’s standing in the poll did improve among Black voters, but it eroded among Hispanic voters, although the sample size of both demographic groups was relatively small in the survey.

The poll also revealed a deep generational rift inside the Democratic Party.

When it comes to Mr. Biden’s fitness for another term, 77 percent of Democrats under 45 think the president is too old to be effective, while only 49 percent of those older than 45 agree.

Similarly, 56 percent of Democrats under 45 approve of Mr. Biden’s job, while 90 percent of Democrats older than that rated him positively.

The debate did succeed in another Biden goal: Getting voters to tune into the race. The share of voters paying a lot of attention to the campaign was jolted up 9 percentage points in the wake of the much-discussed debate.

More voters said in the poll that re-electing Mr. Biden in November would be a risky choice for the country than those who said it of Mr. Trump. In the survey, 63 percent of voters said Mr. Biden was a risky choice, compared to 56 percent who said Mr. Trump was risky.

Roughly one in four Democrats said Mr. Biden was a risky choice rather than a safe one; they were nearly twice as likely to think of Mr. Biden as risky as Republicans were to view Mr. Trump that way.

Voters had viewed the candidates as equally risky back in April.

Mr. Biden faces other headwinds beyond his age.

The economy and inflation were the top issues for voters in the Times/Siena surveys both before and after the debate, and Mr. Trump is winning voters who prioritize those issues overwhelmingly.

Also, by a wide margin, voters look back more fondly on Mr. Trump’s time in office than Mr. Biden’s. Just 34 percent said Mr. Biden made the country better, while 47 percent said the same about Mr. Trump’s tenure. And for almost every demographic group, more voters said Mr. Biden had made the country worse rather than better. Black voters were the biggest exception.

A majority of voters, 50 percent to 39 percent, said Mr. Trump would best handle whatever issue they felt was the most important one facing the country.

Our polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. About 93 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for this poll. You can see the exact questions that were asked and the order in which they were asked here.

Voters are selected for the survey from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For this poll, we placed more than 190,000 calls to more than 113,000 voters.

To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups that are underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of our respondents and the weighted sample on the methodology page, under “Composition of the Sample.”

The poll’s margin of sampling error among registered voters is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When computing the difference between two values — such as a candidate’s lead in a race — the margin of error is twice as large.

You can see full results and a detailed methodology here. If you want to read more about how and why we conduct our polls, you can see answers to frequently asked questions and submit your own questions here.

After Protests Turn Violent, Kenyan Churches Stand with Gen Z

The Sunday after authorities killed people protesting a finance bill, many pastors call for justice.

MORGAN LEE|

JULY 2, 2024 11:00 AM

Image: SOPA Images / Contributor / Getty

Protesters carry a coffin during the nationwide demonstrations against proposed taxes in Kenya.

Among the many people William Ruto thanked after winning Kenya’s 2022 presidential election were religious leaders, significant numbers of whom had enthusiastically campaigned for the career politician.

“I am sure their prayers will not be in vain,” Ruto said, considered by many to be the East African country’s first evangelical president.

Kenyan church leaders have more to pray about after the East African nation’s government violently cracked down on hundreds of young people protesting a finance bill last month, injuring more than 200 and killing at least 24.

Last Wednesday, Ruto withdrew the bill that would have raised taxes on milk, bread, diapers, and pesticides, as part of measures he had defended as necessary to address the country’s debts. But in a country of 58 million where more than 80 percent of residents are under age 35, the issue sent thousands of young people to the streets in 25 of Kenya’s 47 counties.

Their defiance in the face of tear gas, intimidation, and brutality did not go unnoticed by pastors and bishops.

“We do want to appreciate and applaud Gen Zers for their engagement with issues of national interest,” said Calisto Odede, the presiding bishop of CITAM (Christ Is the Answer Ministries), in a statement last week.

“On the one hand, they mobilized protests against unfair tax regimes in a legal manner that was apolitical and devoid of ethnic innuendoes,” said the Pentecostal denominational leader, “and on the other hand, they pricked the conscience of the church to purge the pulpits of our churches from undue influence by politics and politicians.”

Judging by the lack of church-related social media posts, few congregations wanted to associate themselves with politicians this Sunday. One church canceled a fundraiser that First Lady Rachel Ruto was headlining, as did another church that had advertised that 14 politicians would be attending an event marking its new sanctuary.

The Evangelical Alliance of Kenya, which represents about 900 denominations, also called on churches to protect the “sanctity of the pulpit” and to avoid hosting politicians.

The recent protests aren’t the only time when church leaders have tried to separate themselves from politicians. In 2021, one year before the presidential election, Anglican, Presbyterian, Roman Catholic, and evangelical leaders announced they would ban candidates from their pulpits.

“They just made a public statement without any practical implementation,” said Benjamin Kibara, a canon at St. Stephen Anglican Church in Ruiru. “Statements from top denomination leaders have no mechanism of implementation in every local church across the country.”

Now, protestors hope they can make change.

“Deplatform politicians in churches,” stated one pamphlet from the protest movement that has circulated widely on social media. “Don’t allow any politician or Ruto to speak in your church.”

“How Gen-Zs drove the Church back to God” readThe Nation, which bills itself as Kenya’s most widely read newspaper.

“One of the blessings of this Gen Z: They have reminded us as a church that the church is a place of worship but not a political platform,” Kibara preached on Sunday. “We had forgotten that, and almost every Sunday, politicians had the habit of coming to our congregation to drive their own political agenda.”

Gen Z’s invitation to the church to live out its convictions “are needed for the transformation of African societies,” said Kevin Muriithi Ndereba, who leads the department of practical theology at St. Paul’s University in Nairobi.

“They are also bringing issues of justice to the core of Christian belief and practice, so that following Christ is not reduced to a matter of going to heaven but living justly on earth.”

Though several Kenyan Christian leaders pushed for significant political reform, these changes were received poorly by both the church and state, said Muriithi Ndereba. Since the 2000s, he noted, the church has often taken the side of the government and been slow to critique politicians, as these relationships have often personally benefited pastors financially. These trends have only intensified under Ruto, “because he used Christianese to mobilize political votes and craft his agenda.”

The protests come after years of Gen Z observing these dynamics alongside other social movements like the Arab Spring, South Africa’s #FeesMustFall campaign, #MeToo, and frustration around racial injustice and abuse in the American church.

“This current Kenyan protest movement has been a tipping movement or watershed moment that has brought back some of these sentiments to the surface of young people’s lives and the intersections of faith and justice."

Thousands of these young people showed up last Tuesday to All Saints’ Cathedral (ASC), the cathedral of the Anglican Church of Kenya, fleeing “furious” authorities.

“We are sad that despite seeking refuge in the house of God, police officers lobbed several tear gas canisters within the compound affecting several people,” wrote provost canon Evans Omollo in a statement.

Later, according to Omollo, military officers “stormed” the cathedral, threatening “unarmed, peaceful youth,” and shot live bullets, forcing leaders to evacuate protestors. The statement demanded an apology from the head of the police force “for his officers nearly desecrating our place of worship.”

The roughly 1,000-word Anglican statement also offered Ruto advice on actions to address austerity, corruption, and taxation, noting that, though the Anglican church believes in paying taxes, “we oppose overtaxation of the people which unfortunately largely is spent to finance [the] extravagant lifestyle of government officers displayed opulently in the public space.”

ASC’s offer of refuge to protestors came days after some protestors fleeing authorities claimed that Jamia Mosque had opened its doors to them while the Holy Family Basilica had refused. One widely forwarded WhatsApp message listed two Nairobi churches and a Christian student leadership center as being open to protestors.

Meanwhile, on Sunday, many pastors prayed for comfort for grieving families of those killed in the protests, the healing of physical and emotional wounds, and justice for the blood of innocent young people.

At Nairobi Chapel South, pastor Olunga Otieno outlined the “basis for justice,” grounding his arguments in Genesis 1:26.

“Any affront on the indelible rights of another human being is an affront on God himself,” he said. “People matter to God, and when their leaders treat them unjustly, it is the judgment of God such leaders will face."

Several hundred miles away at CITAM Mombasa, senior pastor Joseph Ndung’u pondered the practical applications of holding a conviction that the “Lord reigns.” He noted:

⁠We need to engage. At different times, God uses different people. Previously, for example, he used the freedom fighter—currently, he is using the Gen Zs. He can use anyone. He doesn’t have to ordain someone as a minister first before he can use him to accomplish his purposes. The question is, how much have we invested in our Gen Zs so that as they go out they do it the right way and represent us well?

At Lavington Vineyard Church in Nairobi, Joshua Oyugi released a three-page statement to his congregation, using the political situation as a way to explain the salvation message.

“The public discontent with the finance bill is just the face of many other issues that consistently aggrieved the Kenyan people,” he wrote. “The bill, coupled with corruption, misappropriation of funds, and greed, reflects a bigger problem: sin.”

Though he agreed with Gen Z activists’ call for political change and accountability, John Kimani William of Kingdom Seekers Fellowship in Nakuru said that the protestors had unfairly accused the church of being too aligned with politics.

“God sent prophet Samuel to anoint Saul as king over Israel, and yet Saul failed both God and man,” he said. “Our role as a church is to pray for our country and the president to stay on track. The destinies of the church and the state are intertwined. If the government fails, so does the church. If we don’t pray for our leaders and nation, we sin against God.”

At Nairobi Chapel Greenpark, church members broke into groups of six to pray for personal repentance, repentance for the nation, those adversely affected during the protests, the next generation, the president and government, and the future of the nation. The church also played the national anthem, “Ee Mungu Nguvu Yetu,” or “O God of All Creation.”

Senior pastor Andrew Kariuki also acknowledged that the bill and protests had provoked tension within the church.

“I want to apologize for those in church leadership positions who have said things that are not in alignment with many Kenyans,” he said. “The church is not a public entity. Our church recognizes the failure of church leadership. We must lead as Jesus led.”

Reminding his congregation that the church believed “in the rule of law, the voice of the people, the sanctity of life, and freedom of expression,” pastor Donald Gichane at Ruach West Assembly in Nairobi came out adamantly against the bill.

“We stand with the people of Kenya and, more importantly, with the voice of God in calling what’s wrong, wrong, and what’s right, right!”

Young people are waiting to hear what the church has to say, Linda Ocholla, an Anglican priest, told Nairobi Chapel, one of the largest evangelical megachurches in Kenya.

“They want to know what the Word of God is saying for young people, whose economic prospects have been snuffed out or are being snuffed out as they watch resources being mismanaged,” she said, as part of a special teaching series she is currently leading. “What is God’s Word for us as a society?”

At a Presbyterian Church of East Africa (PCEA) congregation in Nakuru West, theology student Monicah Mbiyu addressed her fellow young people.

“It’s important to express your concerns, but we need to address them not on the road but on our knees, peacefully and prayerfully, trusting in God’s wisdom to address the issues affecting us.”

At PCEA St. Andrew’s, associate minister Phyllis Byrd Ochilo altered the congregation’s normal prayer schedule to ask Gen Z to stand and receive prayer. She also called for a moment of silence for protestors Evans Kiratu and Rex Kanyike Masai, who died because “they stood for justice and it cost them their lives.”

The protestors set an example by backing up their words with action, said parish minister Julius Mwamba, noting that some helped injured police officers by giving them water to wash their faces when the officers were overcome by tear gas, and others wheeled a member of parliament with a disability out of the building after the man’s colleagues had fled. (Part of the parliament was later set on fire by protestors.)

“We are all Kenyans and must embrace each other and extend love to one another,” Mwamba said.

People may have assumed that Gen Z wasn’t paying attention to national circumstances or just aimlessly absorbed in their phones, but they “understand the issues burning down the country very clearly,” said pastor Chrispine Omondi of Thika Road Baptist Church.

“The level of corruption in this country cannot continue as business as usual,” he preached on Sunday. “While I plead for a peaceful resolution, I would like to see the government heed the cries of all the Kenyan people as expressed by these young people in the streets.”

People of all ages attend Missionary Church Kenya, where bishop Charles Matheka Kinyanjui reminded older members of his congregation that, while they might blame young people for their problems, many young people had gone to school but later could not find a job.

“We have failed to teach them the ways of the Lord but we condemn them when they do things the wrong way,” he said. "We have not given them responsibilities in the church, it’s only the elderly that have roles. The young people know nothing of being in Christ.”

The Kenya National Congress of Pentecostal Churches called on the government to protect struggling people.

“When you hear young people speak, it is because we have problems, acute problems,” said Frastus Njoroge, a bishop who spoke for the umbrella group. “They don’t have jobs and don’t know where to get money. What you are hearing is that they are desperate.”

Precious Call Khamasi, a youth pastor at CITAM Valley Road, personally attended the protests.

“I have felt the pinch of the harsh economic environment as a result of the increased taxes, and secondly, I pastor the youth in our church and I felt the need to stand with them not only in prayer but also with my presence on the streets,” he shared in a statement.

Khamasi drew parallels between her and her fellow young people’s experiences of the last month and the biblical experience of Joseph, grappling with the harsh reality that the place where he should have found security and growth was instead a place that was choking the “life out of him.”

“The money that should go a long way in creating opportunities, funding internship programs, hiring teachers, doctors, and other professionals, et cetera, is the money that is being embezzled and wasted through corruption and misplaced priorities in the budgeting,” he wrote. “The same police officers that are supposed to keep them safe are the very ones using excessive force, brute strategies to contain the masses and shooting at unarmed protestors.”

The church should be a “sanctuary of peace and truth, free from the divisive and often corrupting influence of political agendas,” preached pastor Jacob Kipchillis of the Full Gospel Churches of Kenya.

“We must strive to create an environment where social justice and righteousness prevail, reflecting the values of the kingdom of God,” he said. “Let us listen to the voices of our young people and lead with integrity, ensuring that our actions are in alignment with the teachings of our Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ.”

Additional reporting by Betty Muriuki, Victor Bajah, David Ngaruiya, Emmanuel Wanyonyi, and Marion Ndeta.

Protests Continue in Kenya as Some Are Now Calling for the President to Step Down

Anti-tax protesters clashed with riot police in Nairobi on Tuesday when they blocked roads and burnt tyres in Kenya’s capital after unpopular tax legislation triggered deadly unrest earlier last week. Riot police fired tear gas at the protesters and could be seen beating up one man.

BY EVELYNE MUSAMBI

1:42 PM EDT, July 2, 2024

NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — Protests continued in Kenya’s capital and elsewhere Tuesday over a finance bill that would raise the cost of living, even after the president said he would not sign it in the wake of the storming of parliament last week.

Police fired tear gas at protesters in Nairobi as many businesses remained closed for fear of looting. The main highway to Kenya’s second-largest city, Mombasa, was closed as protesters lit bonfires.

In Mombasa, five vehicles were burnt by protesters outside a hotel whose owner is alleged to have shot at protesters who were looting.

While there are concerns that President William Ruto might change his mind and sign the finance bill before next week’s deadline, some protesters are also calling on Ruto to resign and accusing him of bad governance.

But some members of the youth-led protests have expressed worries that other Kenyans are using the unrest as an excuse to cause violence. “Goons have infiltrated,” one organizer, Hanifa Farsafi, wrote on social media platform X on Tuesday.

Interior minister Kithure Kindiki on Tuesday said “criminals” were taking advantage of planned protests to “commit arson” and “terrorize” Kenyans. He warned that they were planning more violence on Thursday and Sunday and said the government was determined to stop them at “whatever cost”.

Last week’s protests were deadly as police opened fire. The two weeks of protests have left 39 people dead, according to the Kenya National Human Rights Commission. Ruto on Sunday put that number at 19.

The president has offered to have dialogue with Kenyan youth and has promised budget cuts on travel and hospitality for his office in line with some protesters’ demands. As unemployment remains high and prices rise, there has been outrage over the luxurious lives of the president and other senior officials.

Members of the youthful but leaderless protest movement have said they do not trust the president to implement his new austerity plans.

Kenya’s main opposition party on Tuesday called on Ruto’s government to take responsibility for the deaths that occurred last week.

Economist Ken Gichinga told The Associated Press that the government should undertake a different approach to tax reforms that will allow the economy to thrive.

“The Gen Zs are the most affected by the unemployment,” Gichinga said.

The Kenya National Human Rights Commission chairperson Roseline Odede told journalists the protests were infiltrated and the “demographics had changed” and turned violent.

Ramaphosa’s Executive Set to Officially Take Office After Swearing-in Ceremony

Chief Justice Raymond Zondo will preside over the ceremony to swear in 76 members of the executive, which include Deputy President Paul Mashatile, 32 ministers, and 43 deputy ministers.

Ramaphosa’s executive set to officially take office after swearing-in ceremony

President Cyril Ramaphosa addressed a public ceremony where he signed the National Health Insurance Bill into law at the Union Buildings in Tswhane on 15 May 2024. Picture: GCIS

CAPE TOWN - President Cyril Ramaphosa's executive will officially take office on Wednesday following a swearing-in ceremony.

Chief Justice Raymond Zondo will preside over the ceremony to swear in 76 members of the executive, which include Deputy President Paul Mashatile, 32 ministers and 43 deputy ministers.

The ceremony returns to the Cape Town International Convention Centre, where the first sitting of Parliament was held in June.

The swearing-in of the Government of National Unity (GNU) executive follows weeks of intense negotiations and public disagreements between the African National Congress (ANC) and its new partner, the Democratic Alliance (DA).

Wednesday’s swearing-in ceremony will see DA leader John Steenhuisen and his fellow party member, Siviwe Gwarube, making their debuts in national government.

The two are part of a total of six DA ministers and six deputy ministers.

Steenhuisen will take up the reins as minister of agriculture while Gwarube takes the oath as the Minister of Basic Education replacing Angie Motshekga, who held the role for over 10 years.

The DA’s Leon Schreiber will also be sworn in as Minister of Home Affairs where he takes over from Dr Aaron Motsoaledi, who will instead be getting sworn in as the new Minister of Health, a position he held between 2009 and 2019.

While the Freedom Front (FF) Plus is no stranger to government, having served as a deputy minister in the fifth term, party leader Pieter Groenewald will also be sworn in as the Minister of Correctional Services.

South Africa’s Unprecedented New Coalition Has 7 Parties in the Cabinet. Here’s a Breakdown

BY GERALD IMRAY

7:29 AM EDT, July 1, 2024

CAPE TOWN, South Africa (AP) — South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has included seven different parties in his Cabinet in an unprecedented power-sharing agreement in the continent’s most industrialized country after the African National Congress lost its parliamentary majority in a milestone election result in late May.

Ramaphosa’s announcement of the new Cabinet on Sunday night takes South Africa into uncharted political territory after 30 years of dominance by the ANC, which liberated the country from the white minority rule of apartheid in 1994 and had governed ever since.

The new multiparty Cabinet was the culmination of a month of tense and sometimes acrimonious negotiations between Ramaphosa’s ANC and the Democratic Alliance, the white-led former main opposition party that has now agreed to share power with the ANC.

While the coalition is made up of 11 parties, including seven with Cabinet positions, the agreement largely rests on the ANC and the DA — the two biggest parties — putting aside their ideological differences and more than 20 years of being political foes to work together.

Here’s a breakdown of the new coalition, which has the challenge of solving South Africa’s deep socioeconomic problems.

ANC keeps most Cabinet positions

Ramaphosa reappointed Paul Mashatile of the ANC as his deputy president and also kept ANC officials in charge of the key ministries of finance, trade and industry, foreign affairs, defense and justice. The ANC, which won the largest share of the vote in the election with 40%, has 20 of the 32 Cabinet minister positions.

Keeping the foreign ministry under ANC leadership also is likely to mean a continuation of South Africa’s overtly pro-Palestinian, anti-Israeli stance. The ANC is the driving force behind South Africa’s highly sensitive case at the United Nations’ top court accusing Israel of genocide in Gaza. South Africa is also set to play a significant role in foreign affairs when it takes over the presidency of the Group of 20 developed and developing nations next year.

Concessions to the DA

Ramaphosa gave the DA six ministerial positions, including making DA leader John Steenhuisen the minister of agriculture. While the DA had pushed for the trade and industry portfolio as the second biggest party, it was given deputy minister posts in trade and industry and finance, and those areas might be the sternest tests of whether the ANC and DA can work together.

The left-leaning ANC and the centrist DA are at odds over many economic policies, including the ANC’s flagship Black Economic Empowerment affirmative action program that aims to advance opportunities for Black people in business. The ANC maintains it’s necessary to right the wrongs of apartheid, but the DA has said it wants to scrap the policy and replace it with one in which race is not a decisive factor.

Racial connotations

The coalition faces wider challenges regarding race with the ANC, the party that liberated South Africa from white minority rule, and the DA, viewed by some as focused on the interests of the country’s white minority, which accounts for 7% of the population of 62 million.

The DA has strongly denied that characterization and has support among many Black South Africans, but race remains a burning issue because of South Africa’s history of brutal racial segregation under a white minority government.

Ramaphosa also made the leader of the Freedom Front Plus party part of his new Cabinet. It has its roots in former right-wing parties representing white interests, and while it has softened its stance considerably, that will be another test of whether South Africa can put race aside in the most politically diverse government it has ever had.

South Africa’s third and fourth biggest parties have refused to join the coalition merely because of the inclusion of the white-led DA and Freedom Front Plus.

Steep challenges

Both Ramaphosa and Steenhuisen have committed to work together, and the DA backed Ramaphosa for a second term in a vote in Parliament last month, a major first step in their new partnership. But the coalition government faces steep challenges. While South Africa positions itself as a leading voice for its continent and for the wider developing world, that is undermined by its problems.

South Africa has some of the world’s highest rates of inequality and unemployment, which officially stands at 32% across the board and a dizzying 45% for young people between the ages of 15 and 34. It also has a desperately high violent crime rate and failing public services, epitomized by rolling nationwide electricity blackouts which reached record levels in 2023.

They were all reasons why South African voters turned away from the ANC in the May 29 election.