Wednesday, April 02, 2008

Zimbabwe Elections Bulletin: No Party Wins Absolute Majority; Ousted White Settlers Threaten Return; UK's Hidden Hand

Zanu-PF, MDC-T in photo finish

Herald Reporter

THE contest for the House of Assembly went into a photo-finish with MDC-Tsvangirai ending with 99 seats, Zanu-PF with 97, MDC with 10 and one independent.

Neither major party has an absolute majority and even when the results of three by-elections caused by death of candidates are known, neither will have the 106 seats needed for an absolute majority.

Besides the 206 seats contested on Saturday, Muzarabani South was won unopposed by Zanu-PF and three by-elections are pending following the death of MDC candidates. While the MDC-Tsvangirai is likely to win at least two of these, since one is Redcliff and the other is in Bulawayo, it cannot gain the 106 seats needed to hold a majority in the House of Assembly.

While the MDC-Tsvangirai had a small lead in seat numbers, Zanu-PF was ahead in the popular vote.

In the polls for the 206 contested seats, Zanu-PF had won 45,94 percent of the votes, MDC-Tsvangirai 42,88 percent, the MDC 8,39 percent and the minor parties and independent candidates 2,79 percent.

Zanu-PF won an absolute majority of the vote in five provinces: the three Mashonalands, Midlands and Masvingo; and last night came first in Matabeleland South with just under 43 percent of the vote, although that lead was not translated into seats.

MDC-Tsvangirai won the absolute majority of the vote in just two provinces: Harare and Manicaland. No party took an absolute majority of Bulawayo, although MDC-Tsvangirai won all the contested seats with just 47 percent of the vote in a vicious three-way contest, coming first in that province and coming first in Matabeleland North with just under 37 percent of the vote.

In the two rural Matabeleland provinces, three-way fights produced some curious results. In the 12 contested constituencies of Matabeleland South, Zanu-PF came an easy first in the total vote, but won just three seats. MDC came second in the vote, but translated that into seven seats, and MDC-Tsvangirai was third, and with just two seats.

Masvingo, like Matabeleland South, produced an anomalous distribution of seats when compared to the provincial vote. Zanu-PF was an easy winner of the popular vote, taking 52,01 percent of the votes, but only 12 of the 26 seats. The other 14 seats went to MDC- Tsvangirai, although the party only managed 41,61 percent of the popular vote. Many Masvingo seats were won with minute majorities.

Zanu-PF has lost its majority in the House of Assembly for the first time since independence, despite its lead in the popular vote. It tended to win with larger majorities where it was stronger than the opposition parties were winning in their strongholds.

Since the 2000 and 2005 elections, Zanu-PF has lost significant support in Manicaland and some support in Masvingo, although a drop of less than 10 percent in its share of the vote in that province saw the huge cut in seats.

The party held its support in rural Mashonaland and rural Midlands while MDC-Tsvangirai has maintained its support base in the cities and towns, and changed the face of the next Parliament with its large gains in Manicaland and modest advances in Masvingo.

Rural Matabeleland has always tended to concentrate most of the marginal constituencies in Zimbabwe, and the strong three-way fight in that area accentuated that trend. Many seats in the region were won with well under 50 percent of the valid vote.

The ZEC, with the national agents of the candidates monitoring its work, is still compiling the totals for the presidential vote.

But if the voting patterns follow the votes for the MPs fairly closely — with Zanu-PF supporters voting for President Mugabe, MDC-Tsvangirai voters opting for Mr Morgan Tsvangirai and MDC voters voting for Dr Simba Makoni — it is difficult to see how any candidate can reach the total of 50 percent plus one required to avoid a run-off.

Even if almost all those who voted for independent candidates and the minor parties gave their presidential vote to Mr Tsvangirai, he would still fall far short of the total unless a large number of Zanu-PF and MDC voters switched to him in the presidential poll.

A look at the turnout in the four constituencies that did not vote for MPs suggests that even with the bulk of these votes, neither of the two main candidates can avoid a run-off.

Without significant cross-voting, a run-off appears the most likely outcome.


Poll results: UK’s hidden hand exposed

By Caesar Zvayi

THE British government and its prime minister, Gordon Brown, have now come out in the open as the real power behind the MDC Tsvangirai faction, demanding the release of the results of Zimbabwe’s elections that show an opposition victory.

Almost the entire British state machinery -- from the BBC to its House of Commons -- was almost going hysterical over the delay in announcing the election results by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission.

Britain’s three main political parties united in urging Brown to approach South African President Thabo Mbeki to press him ‘‘to deal with the crisis in Zimbabwe’’.

It was these three British parties that set up the so-called Westminster Fund for Democracy that bankrolled the launch of the MDC from a ZCTU platform in September 1999 after the Government announced it would compulsorily acquire white-held farms for redistribution to landless black families.

Brown told the BBC that the "eyes of the world" are on Zimbabwe, saying the election results should be published without delay.

Liberal Democrats leader Nick Clegg urged Brown to increase pressure for a "swift and transparent" declaration of results, even though ZEC has been hailed by observer missions for the manner in which it conducted the election and managed the release of the results.

"Gordon Brown must seek urgent discussions with Thabo Mbeki and other leaders of the Southern African Development Community to ensure that maximum pressure is applied to ensure a swift and transparent declaration of results," Clegg said.

Brown’s office said the British premier had discussed ‘‘the situation’’ with President Mbeki on Monday, but would not give details of the talks.

British Foreign Secretary David Miliband and former Labour cabinet minister Peter Hain called on Africa and the rest of the world to express their support for the MDC.

Miliband told the BBC’s Newsnight programme: "It is long overdue for the rest of the world to stand shoulder to shoulder with the spirit of democracy which has expressed itself in Zimbabwe and which is now about to be traduced by President Mugabe and his ruling clique."

At a meeting in Paris, foreign ministers from France, Italy, the Netherlands, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain issued a joint statement, along with Milliband, saying: "We call on the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission to swiftly announce all the election results, especially the results of the presidential election. The future of the Zimbabwean people depends on the credibility and transparency of the electoral process."

The BBC said Brown’s spokesman had hinted at possible increases in aid for Zimbabwe in the event Tsvangirai wins.

Zimbabwe’s election results have become a top story on all international media networks, drawing far more attention than Kenya was accorded when over 1 500 people were hacked or speared to death while 600 000 others were displaced following the disputed re-election of incumbent president Mwai Kibaki on December 27 last year.

Given the intimate relationship between the global media structures, Western politics and the quest for world domination, analysts say this vindicates the view that what is at stake in Zimbabwe is far bigger than what the contestants, with the notable exception of those in Zanu-PF, realise.

A view vindicated by the conspicuous flow of many white former commercial farmers who trooped back into Zimbabwe once the MDC prematurely claimed victory. Some of them have headed to the farms where they threatened to evict newly resettled farmers particularly around Chegutu and Kariba, as many are coming through Chirundu Border Post.

Zimbabwe, the analysts say, represents the last frontier of resistance between the black nationalist struggle and Western neo-colonial encroachment under the guise of globalisation and the parochial discourse of democratisation

Following the Government’s decision to bar all news networks hostile to Zimbabwe from covering the elections, many of them are encamped right round the borders with flushed correspondents giving feverish coverage to all sorts of conspiracy theories and utterances by the opposition and its allies.

The BBC, the public face of British foreign policy, yesterday devoted the entire day to non-stop coverage of Zimbabwe before splashing hourly updates to claims of electoral victory by the MDC. The BBC, in fact, dispatched its main news anchor to report from Johannesburg.

Yesterday all major news networks ran hourly updates on Zimbabwe eclipsing even US President George W. Bush’s visit to Europe for a Nato conference that is supposed to resolve some contentious issues between the world’s major military powers.

What has raised eyebrows is the fact that the Western leaders are basing their premature pronouncements on results compiled by the MDC and its civil society compatriots, yet ZEC — the only organisation legally and constitutionally mandated to issue the results — has not declared a winner, let alone the winner of the presidential contest.

What makes the pronouncements from the West even more glaring is that African leaders, many of whom have a lot to gain or lose from the political dynamics in Zimbabwe, have not spoken, obviously waiting to issue their statements once the full outcome is in the public domain.


Polls orderly, peaceful: AU observer team

Herald Reporter

THE African Union has reported that last week’s harmonised polls were conducted in an orderly and peaceful manner.

The continental body’s observer mission, headed by former Sierra Leone president Dr Ahmad Tejan Kabbah, said the polling arrangements by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission made it possible for people to cast their votes in secret.

Several observer missions, including those from the Sadc region, Pan African Parliament and Comesa, hailed the election process, saying it allowed free and fair voting.

In a statement released on Tuesday, the AU mission commended electoral officials for their commitment, professionalism and efficiency, saying this made it possible for contesting political parties, their agents and security personnel to collaborate effectively during the conduct of the polls.

The mission also said that ZEC set up a transparent and effective framework in spite of the complexity and enormity of running the four combined elections for the very first time.

It also praised the peaceful environment that prevailed before, during and after the elections and urged all the stakeholders to accept the results as announced by ZEC.

"The AU observer team would like to take the opportunity, at this stage, to commend the people of Zimbabwe for the manner in which they have comported themselves in relation to these elections and further appeal to them to continue to be patient while ZEC finalises the release of the results," said Dr Kabbah.

The continental body’s team said it held a number of consultations with stakeholders in the country to obtain relevant information necessary for the polls.

"The purpose of these consultations was to obtain relevant information that would lead to a clear understanding and appreciation of the political and social environment in which these harmonised elections were to be held as well as the legal framework and practical arrangements put in place for the conduct of the polls," said the observer team.

Members of the team were deployed to various provinces that included Harare, Bulawayo, Midlands, Mashonaland East and West, Matabeleland North, Manicaland and Masvingo.

The East African Community observer mission has also declared Saturday’s elections free and fair, New Ziana reports.

Leader of the mission Mr Clarkson Otieno Karan told journalists at a Press conference yesterday that the mission observed the pre-election period, the entire electoral process including collation and tallying, and announcement of results.

"Taking into account the observations and recommendations in this report, the harmonised elections in the Republic of Zimbabwe were, to this extent, free and fair," he said.

The mission leader, however, called on the ZEC to expedite release of the results.

"This country has good infrastructure, and two days after the elections, they should by now have announced even the senatorial results, but there is undue delay in the announcements."

He said the delays might encourage people and political parties to begin announcing their own results.

With lessons from the recent volatile Kenyan elections where the EAC participated, Mr Karan urged winners to be magnanimous in victory and losers to accept defeat graciously.

"Quest for power may destroy the country and it is (incumbent) upon the leaders to ensure that the country is peaceful," he said.

Mr Karan said the mission had learnt some good things from the elections, among them the posting of results on notice boards at polling stations.

Deputy leader of the mission Ms Dora Kanabahita also applauded the use of translucent ballot boxes and involvement of women in the entire electoral process.

"We are looking forward to citing Zimbabwe as a good example in the African region," she said.

The eight-member team, made up of parliamentarians from the East African Legislative Assembly, observed polling in eight of the country’s 10 provinces.

Other observer groups, including those from Sadc and the Pan African Parliament, have endorsed the elections as free and fair.

ZEC has said it is still verifying and collating results for the presidential election with the consent and involvement of the relevant political parties/candidates.


Some white ex-farmers threaten new owners

Herald Reporter

SOME white former commercial farmers are reportedly threatening new owners and workers claiming that they will soon be coming back to reclaim the properties as they anticipate an MDC victory in the harmonised polls.

Such cases have been reported in Mashonaland West Province where scores of the erstwhile landowners visited farms they used to own but have since been redistributed to blacks under the land reform programme.

The former commercial farmers are said to have been to Paarl, Impofu and Bougainvillea farms a week ago and threatened resettled farmers that they were coming back for the land they owned previously.

In an interview with The Herald in Selous yesterday, Zimbabwe National Liberation War Veterans’ Association Chegutu chapter chairman Cde Edmore Matanhike confirmed the development.

"A group of whites visited Paarl, Impofu and Bougainvillea farms and later gathered at Selous Country Club celebrating that they would return to ‘their’ farms after the elections," he said.

"Our investigations have revealed that they are white former commercial farmers from Zambia camped at Kariba and others from Mozambique based at Chikwalakwala preparing to take their former farms if Tsvangirai wins this election," he said.

Cde Matanhike said he gathered the information from the white farmers who visited some farms in Chegutu East.

He said the returning farmers were linked to some white farmers in the province whose properties were not gazetted by Government for compulsory acquisition for resettlement purposes.

But Cde Matanhike said war veterans would not sit and watch them reverse the gains of the liberation struggle brought about by President Mugabe’s leadership.

"We will be left with no option except to take up arms and defend our pieces of land," he said.

In the run-up to the elections, the Commissioner of Prisons, Retired Major-General Paradzai Zimondi, said if the opposition won the elections, he would resign and go and defend his piece of land allocated under the land reform programme.

People interviewed at Paarl, Impofu and Bougainvillea farms confirmed the visits by the white farmers.

Mrs Irene Richard Nikwi of Paarl Farm, a former maid to one of the white farmers, confirmed that a Mr Cray Wherret and his brothers visited her family at their plot.

"I was away but they saw my husband. It was my former boss’s children who visited us. They were on motorbikes and said they were going to a wedding and had just decided to pass by to pay a courtesy call," she said.

She said she nursed Mr Wherret when she was the family’s maid.

At Impofu, Mrs Serina Phiri confirmed that some white farmers had been to the farm.

"I saw them on motorbikes. They told people that they were coming back to the farms."

Former white farmer Mr Triegaardt Stefanus Lombard is said to have also visited Bougainvillea Farm and took photographs of the farm.

"He came here together with four other white farmers and inspected the whole farm taking photographs in the process," said Mrs Lydia Mukucha, a resettled farmer.

Mrs Audrey Hativagone, Zanu-PF councillor for Ward 29 Chegutu East and also a farmer, said she was surprised by the development.

"I am surprised and I wonder how this is going to happen. We voted for President Mugabe so that we can retain our land. We hear that Morgan Tsvangirai is promising the whites that same land."

Several white commercial farmers whose properties were compulsorily acquired for redistribution to the landless black majority settled in neighbouring Zambia, Mozambique, South Africa, Nigeria and Australia.

They are reported to be camping on Zimbabwe’s borders with neighbouring countries waiting to return once the MDC is declared winner of the elections.

Last month reports from Nigeria said former farmers who had settled in that country where desperate to return home and repossess properties they previously owned.

The farmers were banking on the MDC winning the elections.

The MDC Tsvangirai faction has said it would reverse the land reforms if elected into power.

Its leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, has described the land redistribution programme as illegal and detrimental to foreign investment.

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