Tuesday, November 01, 2016

Somalia Food Security Outlook, October 2016 to May 2017
Food security expected to deteriorate following forecast below-average Deyr rains

It is estimated 1,371,500 people will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or higher between January and May 2017. The key drivers of food insecurity during this time include forecast below-average October to December Deyr rains, driven by La NiƱa-like conditions, and the preceding poor Gu season. Below-average Deyr rains will lead to a second consecutive season of lower than normal production and continued poor livestock body conditions. Food insecurity is expected to be highest in agropastoral areas of southern and central Somalia and in Northern Inland Pastoral and Guban Pastoral livelihood zones.

In southern Somalia, rangeland conditions are significantly below average. Pasture and water resources failed to adequately restore during the poor April to June Gu season. The dry and hot July to September Xagaa season drove faster than usual depletion of rangeland resources and conditions continue to deteriorate given the delay of Deyr rains. As of mid-October, eMODIS Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI), a measure of green vegetation, is at its lowest levels in the past five years in all southern regions.

Near-average June to September Karan rains in agropastoral and pastoral areas of the Northwest are expected to lead to an aboveaverage Karan harvest in November, increasing food security in these regions. Northwestern agropastoral livelihood zone will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) throughout the outlook period.

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