Support for Impeachment Correlates to How Much Attention People Pay to It
By Philip Bump
Oct. 8, 2019 at 5:41 p.m. EDT
Washington Post
The Washington Post-Schar School poll released on Tuesday morning included a remarkable number: Nearly 6-in-10 Americans believe that an impeachment inquiry into President Trump is warranted. Support for such a probe had increased more than 20 points since July. Support for actually impeaching Trump and removing him from office was more modest, at a still-not-great-for-Trump 49 percent.
There’s a reason we tend to be wary about making too many assumptions based on one poll: Polls are built with some level of imprecision, which can be evaluated better in the context of other polls. The release of new polls from Quinnipiac University and NBC News and the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday afternoon adds that context.
In short: Support for impeaching and removing Trump is slightly lower in these polls, at 45 and 43 percent, respectively.
More important, a big increase in support for impeachment measured in Quinnipiac’s polling from Sept. 25 to Sept. 30 has since remained flat. Between those two dates, support for removing Trump increased by a net shift of 20 points; since, net support has dropped by 4 points. The biggest decline was among Democrats, though the change is within the margin of error.
Within that Quinnipiac poll, though, are two other important numbers worth highlighting.
The pollsters also asked respondents how much attention they were paying to impeachment news. Among those who said they were paying a lot of attention, a majority supported Trump’s impeachment and removal. (Box A on the chart below.) Those paying less attention were less likely to say they supported impeachment.
This is a correlation, but the causation isn’t clear. Perhaps people who see more about impeachment are more likely to support it. Or perhaps those who support it seek out more news about it. Given the argument among some Democrats that a highly public inquiry will shift public opinion, though, this finding may be important.
The number highlighted with Box B is also interesting. Among those who say Trump abuses his power — an almost definitional rationale for impeachment — 12 percent of respondents don’t support impeaching Trump. Among those who disagree about Trump abusing power, there’s more unanimity; only 1 percent of those who think he doesn’t abuse power think he should be impeached.
That same tenth of Trump skeptics pops up repeatedly in Quinnipiac’s numbers. Ten percent of those who think that asking a foreign leader to investigate a political opponent is itself worthy of impeaching a president somehow don’t support Trump’s impeachment for doing precisely that. Thirteen percent of those who view Trump’s actions in the least favorable light, saying that he asked Ukraine to investigate former vice president Joe Biden to gain a political advantage, nonetheless don’t support impeachment and removal.
What this suggests is either that those seeking to build support for impeachment have some low-hanging fruit to pick — or that there are some people who agree with the Democrats’ assessment of Trump’s actions, but not the remedy.
There’s one additional caveat worth noting. The impeachment inquiry itself is only about two weeks old, as is the Ukraine story itself. Democrats are pressing forward on gathering information, with new aspects of the situation being revealed on a daily basis.
The Quinnipiac poll shows that, so far, things haven’t changed all that much. It also shows that they might, if people start paying more attention.
Philip Bump is a correspondent for The Washington Post based in New York. Before joining The Post in 2014, he led politics coverage for the Atlantic Wire.Follow
Oct. 8, 2019 at 5:41 p.m. EDT
Washington Post
The Washington Post-Schar School poll released on Tuesday morning included a remarkable number: Nearly 6-in-10 Americans believe that an impeachment inquiry into President Trump is warranted. Support for such a probe had increased more than 20 points since July. Support for actually impeaching Trump and removing him from office was more modest, at a still-not-great-for-Trump 49 percent.
There’s a reason we tend to be wary about making too many assumptions based on one poll: Polls are built with some level of imprecision, which can be evaluated better in the context of other polls. The release of new polls from Quinnipiac University and NBC News and the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday afternoon adds that context.
In short: Support for impeaching and removing Trump is slightly lower in these polls, at 45 and 43 percent, respectively.
More important, a big increase in support for impeachment measured in Quinnipiac’s polling from Sept. 25 to Sept. 30 has since remained flat. Between those two dates, support for removing Trump increased by a net shift of 20 points; since, net support has dropped by 4 points. The biggest decline was among Democrats, though the change is within the margin of error.
Within that Quinnipiac poll, though, are two other important numbers worth highlighting.
The pollsters also asked respondents how much attention they were paying to impeachment news. Among those who said they were paying a lot of attention, a majority supported Trump’s impeachment and removal. (Box A on the chart below.) Those paying less attention were less likely to say they supported impeachment.
This is a correlation, but the causation isn’t clear. Perhaps people who see more about impeachment are more likely to support it. Or perhaps those who support it seek out more news about it. Given the argument among some Democrats that a highly public inquiry will shift public opinion, though, this finding may be important.
The number highlighted with Box B is also interesting. Among those who say Trump abuses his power — an almost definitional rationale for impeachment — 12 percent of respondents don’t support impeaching Trump. Among those who disagree about Trump abusing power, there’s more unanimity; only 1 percent of those who think he doesn’t abuse power think he should be impeached.
That same tenth of Trump skeptics pops up repeatedly in Quinnipiac’s numbers. Ten percent of those who think that asking a foreign leader to investigate a political opponent is itself worthy of impeaching a president somehow don’t support Trump’s impeachment for doing precisely that. Thirteen percent of those who view Trump’s actions in the least favorable light, saying that he asked Ukraine to investigate former vice president Joe Biden to gain a political advantage, nonetheless don’t support impeachment and removal.
What this suggests is either that those seeking to build support for impeachment have some low-hanging fruit to pick — or that there are some people who agree with the Democrats’ assessment of Trump’s actions, but not the remedy.
There’s one additional caveat worth noting. The impeachment inquiry itself is only about two weeks old, as is the Ukraine story itself. Democrats are pressing forward on gathering information, with new aspects of the situation being revealed on a daily basis.
The Quinnipiac poll shows that, so far, things haven’t changed all that much. It also shows that they might, if people start paying more attention.
Philip Bump is a correspondent for The Washington Post based in New York. Before joining The Post in 2014, he led politics coverage for the Atlantic Wire.Follow
No comments:
Post a Comment