Iran May Strike First as Tehran Warns of Possible US Assault | Excl.
By Al Mayadeen English
22 Sep 2026 18:09
Iran may strike first if Tehran determines the US is preparing an assault, Professor Mohammad Marandi says, as tensions escalate across the region.
Iran may strike first in the current war, and Tehran has intelligence that the United States is preparing an assault, Professor Mohammad Marandi said on Tuesday.
Speaking on Al Mayadeen's The Grand Standoff: Iran and The World, Marandi said the decision for any act of aggression "would have to be taken in Washington or in Tel Aviv," but that "the Iranians have intelligence that the United States is preparing for an assault and that regional regimes aligned to the United States are cooperating in that regard."
He said that in Qatar "there are at least 25 American refueling planes based there prepared to refuel fighter jets, whether American or Israeli, to bomb Iran and to carry out further slaughter as we saw in the past, whether it's schools or weddings or hospitals or sports complexes."
US capabilities have been put in place in preparation for an assault: Marandi
US military capabilities have been put in place "in preparation for what would seem to be an assault," Marandi said, adding: "That doesn't mean that the assault will take place, but it does mean that they have prepared themselves for an assault."
Iran has been preparing for strikes against US targets across the region, he continued, "both economic targets and military targets, as well as targets that belong to those regimes that assist the United States."
He said Iran has been preparing for strikes against US targets across the region, "both economic targets and military targets, as well as targets that belong to those regimes that assist the United States."
Marandi said Iran "is prepared for an all-out war, but nothing is for certain." Asked whether Iran might strike first, he said: "Yes, that is an option that the Iranians have. They may strike first because we are already at war, there is no ceasefire, and the United States is waging economic warfare against Iranians."
He said "the Iranians have the right to strike at the Trump regime, his assets, the assets of those regimes in the region that collaborate with him, and of course that of the Israeli regime," adding: "I don't know if they're ready to do that. It is a possibility." He said that when there is no ceasefire and the enemy is "attempting to strangle 90 million people," the armed forces "will have the authority if it is necessary for them to attack the enemy first. They do have that authority."
Trump's zigging and zagging applies to friend and foe: Lawrence
Political science and international affairs professor William Lawrence said he agreed with much of what Marandi had said and described US planning as encompassing every contingency. "The US has scenarios of planning for every type of thing, including wars with Canada and Mexico and France," he said, adding that planning for Iran ranges from the least aggressive to the most aggressive and that Trump "likes to be deliberately unpredictable."
He said Trump does so "with friend and with foe," and that this should be "discounted or understood in its context that it's Trump zigging and zagging."
Lawrence said Trump's real motivation is frustration with the war's outcome. "His real motivation is that he's frustrated by the outcome of the war," he said, adding that Trump is frustrated by the lack of success in peace efforts and in hitting Iran hard, and is "looking for a way out."
Trump "doesn't really find a partner on the other side that wants to negotiate, nor is he making the types of concessions he needs to make to get to the negotiating table," according to Lawrence, who noted the situation is "this stalemate right now that could escalate at any time."
Situation in Yemen aids Iran thanks to Saudi Arabia
Lawrence said the Ansar Allah in Yemen "just grabbed most of the West Coast" and are "threatening to battle Mandate and putting economic squeeze on Saudi Arabia, not as much on the United States." He said the Ansar Allah stated "they're not going to do it on the United States, but on Saudi Arabia, which is aggravating the situation," and that "Saudi Arabia is being attacked both from the north and from the south by Iranian-backed forces."
Lawrence said "the best way to de-escalate in Yemen is to start up the Muscat negotiations," adding that he does not know "why they were postponed." He said "those negotiations need to start up again" and that "both sides need to stop the escalatory rhetoric and start making concessions to get a deal." He said "the onus falls on the mediators to try to coax concessions out of each side because the rhetoric right now is very maximalist and escalatory."
Marandi said the current circumstances "do benefit Iran a lot," which he attributed partially to Saudi actions. "That is partially due to the actions of Saudi Arabia by bombing Sana'a International Airport," he said, adding that the Saudis "started a war with Yemen, which had already been demanding that the siege directed at the people of Yemen be lifted."
He said the conflict "definitely strengthens Iran's hand, because it adds a lot of pressure to the United States."
Marandi said the Saudis "have been bombing Yemen day and night, and they've imposed a siege," and that Yemen "was demanding an end to the siege" while the Saudis "bombed San Anon International Airport" instead.
He asked: "So who is there to condemn? Is it the Saudis who should be condemned, or the people of Yemen? Obviously the Saudis." He said the vast majority of people in Yemen "live in areas, the vast majority, that are controlled by the coalition led by Ansar Allah," and that "the capital is controlled, so how are they a militia, a ragtag militia?"
Lawrence: US domestic politics weigh on Trump
Lawrence said Trump "is underwater in the polls, the lowest ever for a US president since Watergate." He said Trump "is way behind the Democrats on economics, which is usually a forte for the Republicans," and that "Americans are turning against the war," "turning against the tariffs," and "turning against the bickering with Canada, the trade war." He said "most of the rest of Trump's policies are deeply unpopular."
Lawrence said this "will affect him in the midterms, except that he says he doesn't care," adding that Trump "thinks that even if he loses Congress, he's got that presidency that'll go to another more than two years."
He said Trump "is trying to make it, in terms of his public pronouncements, that the midterms don't matter by talking about how he's in no hurry to negotiate, both countries are preparing for the long haul and not really in negotiation mode."
On the topic of the upcoming US midterm elections, Marandi pointed out that while Iran does not believe the war will end after the midterms. "the midterm elections do provide an opportunity for the Iranians to hurt Trump."
He said "the coming weeks are quite sensitive for Trump if the economic situation deteriorates in the United States," and that this "could hurt the Republican candidates that are aligned to him."
"The next few weeks are definitely not the best time for Trump to wage an assault, at least from here in Tehran, that's how it looks," according to Marandi, who emphasized that "even if Trump loses badly in the midterm elections," the war "will probably continue for quite a long time."
Turning to Iran's economic policy, Marandi stated that it has shifted "towards wartime economies," which "clearly indicates that the Iranians are planning for the war to continue until the end of Trump's presidency."
A school, a UN finding, and two irreconcilable accounts
Lawrence said "the UN found that the US bombing of the school at the beginning of the war was a war crime." He said "that does have some weight," adding: "I don't believe it was an intentional war crime, even though there were multiple hits. I think it was a war crime nonetheless, because you're supposed to spare civilian populations."
Lawrence rejected the claim that the US deliberately targeted the school, arguing that if it had, it would have hit many other schools as well, and that the strike was a day-one mistake. He cited an AI error and a failure to fix the targeting, calling the strike an egregious war crime, while maintaining that the vast majority of targeting in Iran killed no civilians at all.
"This, of course, is obviously a crime against humanity," Marandi countered, "and I would argue that the strike was intentional, because that was the first day of the war."
He said that "on the first day of any operation, all of the targets are very carefully vetted," and that "that school was there for a decade." He said "all the maps and all the apps clearly indicated that this was a school, and the three missiles hit the school, but they didn't target any military installation. They targeted the school."
Marandi also pointed to the Gandhi Hospital, which he said was struck on day one, and to the sports complex where teenagers were massacred, arguing that the disproportionate number of massacres on the first day, more than on other days, was itself significant.
"First of all, we shouldn't be fooled by the term AI. AI doesn't mean that the targeting is going to be military," he said
"Contrary to what your guest in the United States says," Marandi said, referring to Lawrence, "98% of the targets were not military. They blew up many apartment blocks in Tehran in order to kill one person," noting that the US "killed tens of people on many occasions, wiped out complete families."
Hormuz: an international waterway or Iran's right to govern?
Lawrence rejected Iran's position on the Strait of Hormuz. "First of all, it's not true. Second of all, it's illegal," he said. "They don't govern the Strait of Hormuz. It's an international waterway. It's protected by international law, like the Taiwan Strait, like the Majorca Strait, like the Strait of Gibraltar."
He said "everyone can navigate through it," and that "these are international waterways that everyone should be allowed to go through," claiming that "Iran is violating that by saying it's governing by shooting at ships."
"That's not governance. Just like the US has a blockade on Iran, which is a violation of international law in response to the Iranian blockade," Lawrence claimed.
Marandi rebuked Lawrence by pointing out that "with regards to this trade of Hormuz, it's clear as day. The Iranians did not sign any international treaty. And the width of the trade of Hormuz is clear for everyone." He said "the Iranians have that right, and they will implement that right," adding that "the United States or any of its allies are in no position to talk about international law. They started this war."
Dispute over casualties and targets
Lawrence said Iran "has not only hit the five countries he's mentioned, but they've hit Oman, a mediator. They've hit Qatar, he mentioned, a mediator. They've hit Egypt, a mediator. They've hit Turkey, a mediator. They've hit Jordan, Iraq, Israel, and Cyprus."
He said "this is not Iran defending Palestinians, and it's not Iran only defending its regime," adding: "It's Iran meddling in about six or seven countries and attacking at least 12 countries in order to have regime survival and in order to try to shift the blame." He said "any civilian death is a tragedy," adding that he says so "with full heartfelt pain."
Lawrence said "the defense of the Gulf States was very, very good. It was over 95% effective," and that "that's one of the reasons there weren't a lot of casualties." He said "there were a lot of weddings in the hotels that the Iranians hit, but the missiles and drones were intercepted," and that "the civilian death toll would have been much higher if the defense hadn't been so good."
He said "those defense munitions are running low," calling that "another great reason for a negotiation," and said "this war should end to spare civilians."
Iranian strikes casualty rates prove Tehran took precuations to protect civilians: Marandi
Marandi said that "despite all the thousands of missiles and drones that Iran fired at targets in Qatar, Bahrain, the Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, we only had, by some estimates, at most 40-some... less than 50 people were killed."
He said "while the United States and the Israeli regime murdered thousands of civilians in Iran, we only see a handful... that were killed in all these Iranian strikes," adding: "So clearly the Iranians have taken precaution not to have civilians killed."
Marandi rejected Lawrence's account of the hotels. "Iran did not target hotels that were hosting weddings. It was targeting buildings where the American armed forces were using, because they fled their bases and hid in those buildings," he said, adding that "the American armed forces were cowardly using civilian buildings to hide their troops."
"The Iranians would warn people to stay away from these buildings and hotels, and people can go over the statements of the Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters throughout the war," Marandi further pointed out.
Further proving his point, Marandi noted that US bases in these countries "were annihilated. They were destroyed. The Americans cannot use them, because all those missiles and drones wiped out all of the infrastructure in most of these bases," noting that "some American analysts have said that it will take more than a decade to rebuild them."
Oil at $100, and a Gulf being rebuilt away from the Gulf
"Iranian proxies are now attacking Aramco, and they're attacking the oil infrastructure of Saudi Arabia in a substantial way that is causing economic pressure... pain... all around the world in terms of oil prices and energy supplies," Lawrence said.
Energy prices, he noted, "are back up over $100 because of actions by Iran and actions by the Houthis and actions in the Strait of Hormuz driving up energy prices and creating an energy scarcity."
If a pipeline in Saudi Arabia is hit , he argued, "the pipeline needs to be strengthened," and "if oil and gas distribution routes need to be changed to avoid the Iranian front lines, then they need to be changed."
"There's going to be massive investment to move things out of the Gulf... permanently away from the Gulf in some cases, because Iran has proved that it doesn't really want to live with its neighbors in peace," he said.
The difference between Iranian and Western media
Marandi said Lawrence "does not know Persian, and so he can't really comment about Iranian press, which is far more diverse than American mainstream media," advising Lawrence to "use AI and look up Iranian websites that function inside the country and see the harsh debates that exist."
He said "the information comes from a pretty monolithic and Orientalist Western media that is largely controlled by oligarchs," and that "the Western media today is infinitely worse than it was, let's say, 40, 50 years ago, because it has been so badly consolidated in the hands of very few people."
Marandi cited the downing of an Iranian airliner over the Strait of Hormuz. "When the Americans downed the Iranian airliner over the Strait of Hormuz, ironically, and killed 290 people, the Iranians, from day one, stated the path of the airline," he said, adding that "the Americans lied about it for years, until years later, when it was no longer an issue."
Marandi pointed to an article by Newsweek, which confirms "everything that Iran said. It wasn't Newsweek that discovered anything."
The Iranian president goes to the General Assembly every year, "and usually it is used as a platform to speak to global media, but Western media in particular, because in the West, Iranian voices are not really allowed," Marandi further pointed out.
"Western media very rarely allows alternative voices in, maybe a few minutes, and then for hours, their own voices are repeated time after time," he said, describing the gathering as "a good opportunity, just like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit, just like the BRICS Summit were useful."
Gaza, recession, and a war with no end in sight
Lawrence agreed with Marandi entirely on Gaza, asserting that "It's disgraceful what's going on. It's disgraceful that the US covers for Israel," he said.
Iran, in his view, is expanding and escalating, and it is very hard for the US to go into negotiating mode when the war is reaching new fronts with new targets and new pressures.
Iran is also in a deep recession, Lawrence noted, with economic effects 10 times as big as those on the United States or most other countries. He said the Iranian regime has shown it does not really care about the contracting wartime economy or a 10% reduction in growth, because it is about regime survival, not economic benefits.
Marandi said the Iranians have shifted their economic policy towards wartime economies and that the war will probably continue for quite a long time. A statement or declaration from an international body, he added, does not bring about much change, and no one in Iran is celebrating it.
Marandi also argued that the United States and its allies are in no position to talk about international law, saying they started the war. "This is the third war that they've imposed on the Iranian people in the last 47 years. They've committed crimes against humanity. They started this war, and Saudi Arabia started the war against Yemen," he said.
