Horn of Africa Region Will Be Devastated by Another Internal War in Ethiopia
Reports of intensified fighting in Tigray and other regions must be viewed in a broader continental and international context
By Abayomi Azikiwe
Editor, Pan-African News Wire
Friday September 25, 2026
Geopolitical Analysis
Tensions have been building up between the government of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and several armed opposition groupings.
The issues which brought about the war between the central government in Addis Ababa and the northern regional Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) have resurfaced despite the negotiated peace agreement in 2022.
Ethiopia is the second most populated state in Africa with an estimated 138 million people. Although it is a landlocked state it is bordered by Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Kenya, South Sudan and Sudan.
In May 1963 it was the location of the founding of the Organization of African Unity (OAU), now known as the African Union (AU). When the OAU was formed it consisted of 33 member-states. Today, the AU encompasses 54 independent states along with the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) which remains occupied by the Kingdom of Morocco.
Chronologically it is one of the oldest civilizations recorded in human history. There have been archaeological findings which date back to more than 3 million years. The country is famous for its rock-hewn churches at Lalibela which were constructed between the 7th and 13th centuries.
In recent events inside the country, flights from the capital of Addis Ababa into Tigray have been suspended according to government sources. In addition, there are claims of drone attacks which have wounded and killed civilians in Tigray and other areas of the vast Horn of Africa state.
Further intensified fighting could erupt soon with the announcement of an alliance of several opposition organizations threatening to wage an armed struggle to seize control of the government led by the Prosperity Party of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The ruling Prosperity Party was declared the winners in a recent election although the opposition forces have declared the poll as being illegitimate. Prime Minister Abiy has rejected the protests of the TPLF and other allied groupings saying that the armed opposition will be met with full force of the federal government.
Figures provided by the government indicated that in the June elections, the Prosperity Party won 438 of 486 contested parliamentary seats. Elections did not occur in Tigray while they were interrupted by tensions in parts of Amhara and Oromia regions.
A recent article published in Al Jazeera said the present situation is quite explosive, noting:
“The Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, announced on September 20, was not a surprise. It followed several months of coordination meetings among the groups, held in the presence of military and security representatives from Eritrea and Sudan. It brings together the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the Amhara Fano National Movement, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and four movements from the Somali, Afar and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. Despite the OLA’s participation, Oromo organizations and elites are divided in their support for the alliance. The alliance aims to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and establish an inclusive transition. Three of the seven organizations – the TPLF, the Amhara Fano National Movement and the Afar National Unity Revolutionary Front (ANURF) – have particular strategic importance. All three are in northern Ethiopia, which borders Eritrea, allowing continuous logistical support from there.” (https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/9/25/ethiopias-new-rebel-alliance-faces-an-old-problem)
There has been widespread alarm domestically, regionally and internationally over the announcement of the armed opposition coalition aimed at toppling the government in Addis Ababa. Ethiopia remains the seat of the AU and its affiliated institutions such as the African Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (ACDC), the Peace and Security Council (PSC), designed to address conflicts inside the continent, along with other agencies.
Since the transformation of the OAU to the AU in 2002, the affiliate institutions were redesigned for more effectiveness as it relates to peacekeeping as well as economic cooperation. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) based in Accra, Ghana was approved in 2018 after years of negotiations.
The objectives of the ACDC and AfCFTA are to foster greater unity in addressing widespread economic underdevelopment resulting from the legacy of enslavement, colonialism and neo-colonialism. High rates of infectious and non-infectious diseases are direct outcomes of the continuing unequal distribution of wealth and terms of international trade.
These lofty goals enunciated by the AU cannot be achieved in the face of increasing insecurity which can only result in human dislocation. With its large population and natural resources, Ethiopia should be a center of planning and development for the entire continent.
A statement from the AU on the situation in Ethiopia emphasized:
“The Chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC), H.E. Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, expresses deep concern over renewed tensions and military escalation in Northern Ethiopia, including the seizure and occupation of the airports of Mekelle, Axum and Shire, the detention of federal personnel by the Tigray’s People Liberation Front (TPLF) and the ensuing disruption of civilian air services. The Chairperson is also gravely concerned by reports of escalating hostilities in parts of South Tigray and the Afar Region, as well as recent developments involving the formation of new political and military alliances that risk further destabilizing the situation and reversing the gains made to silencing the guns, since 2020…. The Chairperson calls for utmost restraint and the immediate cessation of all actions that could further escalate tensions. He calls on the resumption of direct talks without delay within the framework of the Pretoria Agreement. (https://au.int/en/pressreleases/20260923/chairperson-calls-restraint-and-immediate-de-escalation-northern-ethiopia)
Such a statement is reflective of the concerns of the people of Africa related to the burgeoning conflict in Ethiopia. Other internal wars in neighboring Sudan, for example, have caused displacement of millions internally and into other regional states.
These conflicts are often a direct result of the interference by western states and their allies such as Israel, United Arab Emirates and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Consequently, the capacity of African states to resolve their internal and regional problems would be a major achievement in building stability, economic independence and territorial sovereignty.
Neighboring Eritrea and the Burgeoning Conflict in Ethiopia
The relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea has been complicated by the historical geographic mapping of the Horn of Africa region. Various African people over the millennia have migrated and settled in vast areas of territory that are today called nation-states. These nation-states existing in Africa today are derived from the legacy of classical colonialism and its successor system of neo-colonialism.
Eritrea was colonized by Italy in the aftermath of the Berlin Conference of 1884-1885. Ethiopia under a monarchy repelled a military intervention by the same imperialist regime in Italy during 1896, known as the Battle of Adwa. Later in 1935, the fascist government of Benito Mussolini invaded and occupied Abyssinia until 1941.
After the conclusion of the Second World War (1939-1945) there was a reconfiguration of the colonial landscape. Eritrean leaders made clear their desire for independence as early as 1950 when a resolution was introduced to that effect by socialist Czechoslovakia. This resolution opposed the federation of the former Italian colony to post-war Ethiopia.
By 1961 a full-blown war was underway between Eritrean independence fighters and the Ethiopian government headed then by His Imperial Majesty Haile Sellasie I. After the monarchy was overthrown in 1974 during a revolutionary upsurge and the coming to power of Provisional Military Administrative Council, the war with Eritrea continued.
In 1991, when the Workers Party of Ethiopia under Mengistu Haile Miriam collapsed, Eritrea declared its independence which was codified two years later in a United Nations supervised election. Nonetheless, even under the TPLF government which controlled Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018, relations with Asmara (Eritrean capital) were tense and resulted in two major wars between 1998-2000.
It was with great expectations when the current Prime Minister Abiy negotiated two peace agreements with Eritrea in 2018. Nonetheless, since 2018 the relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara have worsened. The role of Eritrea will prove critical in the outcome of the rising internal tensions.
Crisis Must Be Viewed Along with the Role of Imperialism
Throughout the Horn of Africa and broader East and Central Africa regions the United States is making a calculated attempt to further its geostrategic domination. The developments in the Horn of Africa are clearly related to the neighboring West Asia region.
The Israeli state recently “recognized” the breakaway Somaliland region of Somalia. It is quite obvious this maneuver is designed to establish a beachhead to counter the growing influence of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the affiliates of the Axis of Resistance, particularly those in Yemen.
Concurrently, the US administration denied entry visas to the delegation of Sudanese General Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan to attend the United Nations General Assembly 81st Session. The denial of Sudan took place alongside the same measures utilized against Palestinian Authority President Mahmood Abbas. The State Department told the Sudanese government that their denial of entry was based upon Khartoum’s rejection of a US-proposed solution to the intra-military war which has raged since April 2023.
All of these provocations can by no means win friends and influence for Washington in the Global South and elsewhere. Events at the UNGA 81 in New York City reveal the disagreements existing in the international community.





















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