Brazil’s Presidential Vote Looks Headed for Runoff
Incumbent Dilma Rousseff Unlikely to Avoid Facing One of Two Rivals Again
By JOHN LYONS
Oct. 5, 2014 5:52 p.m. ET
In Rio de Janeiro, Brazilians headed to the polls Sunday, capping the first round of an unpredictable and often acrimonious presidential campaign.
SÃO PAULO, Brazil—In a Brazilian presidential race already marked by the death of a candidate in a plane crash and wild swings in polls, Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff was poised to win the most votes in a Sunday election that has become so close it will likely go to a runoff election later this month.
A former Marxist guerrilla-turned-politician, Ms. Rousseff went into Sunday’s vote with polls giving her a healthy lead over her challengers, but falling short of the 50% she needs to win outright and avoid an Oct. 26 runoff.
That has turned Sunday’s vote into a race for second place between Marina Silva, a former senator running as a reformer, and Aécio Neves, a more-conservative politician campaigning on lifting the economy. Polls show these candidates in a photo-finish following a recent surge by Mr. Neves.
But this Brazilian election has already seen dramatic swings, and Ms. Rousseff could conceivably clinch the election Sunday if a late flurry of campaigning in Brazil’s populous south pulls more voters into her camp. Brazil’s voting stations were set to close at 7 p.m. Eastern Standard Time.
“We’re on a roller coaster,” said Andre Cesar, a political consultant based in the capital Brasília.
The tight election reflects uncertainty about the path forward in a resource-rich nation coming to grips with a waning commodities boom. Just four years ago, Brazil’s economy was surging forward at a 7.5% pace as the boom promised to lift millions from poverty and speed the nation’s development.
But the economy is undergoing a wrenching U-turn. Brazil slipped into recession this year after four years of stagnation, and inflation is on the rise. The state-owned oil company Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. is mired in alleged embezzlement and other scandals. Since Ms. Rousseff took office, the real has lost a third of its value against the dollar and the stock market is down by 21%.
Last year, around a million Brazilians took to the streets in mass marches protesting everything from poor hospitals and schools to corruption and the $11.5 billion price tag to host the World Cup. Ms. Rousseff’s popularity plunged, prompting talk that her left-wing Workers’ Party was vulnerable to losing the election after 12 years in power.
“It’s time for a change,” said Jose Luiz Francisco, a 66-year- old resident of the working class outskirts of São Paulo. Though Mr. Francisco voted for Ms. Rousseff in 2010, he said he cast his vote earlier Sunday for a challenger, Ms. Silva.
In recent weeks, Ms. Silva and Mr. Neves have sought to build campaigns among those seeking change, mainly middle-class and better-off voters. Born in a rubber-tapping camp in Brazil’s Amazon jungle, Ms. Silva’s compelling life story of early impoverishment gave her inroads among Brazil’s poor.
She leapt to a lead in polls after entering the race late following the Aug. 13 death of the Socialist Party candidate Eduardo Campos in a plane crash. But her campaign withered under blistering negative advertising attacks by both Mr. Neves and Ms. Rousseff. In recent days, many one-time Silva voters have switched to Mr. Neves as the best candidate to unseat Ms. Rousseff.
But Ms. Rousseff has retained a deep reservoir of support among millions of poor and working-class voters who remain fearful of change and support the incumbent as a continuity candidate. During 12 years in power, the Workers’ Party has greatly expanded social-welfare programs that have helped lift some 36 million people from extreme poverty.
Meanwhile, with many other voters seeking change, Ms. Rousseff has built a lead partly by presenting herself as the candidate to meet that demand as well. One of her campaign themes is that projects designed to transform the country, such as new railroads and irrigation infrastructure, will only be completed in a second term. One of her slogans is: “More Change, More Future.”
Voting in the middle-class neighborhood of Tijuca in Rio de Janeiro, Waldemir Mello, a 53-year-old medical-equipment technician, said Ms. Rousseff has proved a solid steward and deserves another term.
Around 140 million Brazilians are headed to the polls to elect their president on Sunday. Instead of ballots, though, they’ll cast their votes electronically. WSJ's Paulo Trevisani reports. (Photo: AP)
“Brazil has achieved a lot in the past four years, “ Mr. Mello said. “I want them to continue their current projects.”
—Loretta Chao in São Paulo, Paul Kiernan in Belo Horizonte and Will Connors in Rio de Janeiro contributed to this article.
Write to John Lyons at john.lyons@wsj.com
 |
| Brazil President Dilma Rousseff with her Argentine counterpart Cristina Kirchner (left). |
By JOHN LYONS
Oct. 5, 2014 5:52 p.m. ET
In Rio de Janeiro, Brazilians headed to the polls Sunday, capping the first round of an unpredictable and often acrimonious presidential campaign.
SÃO PAULO, Brazil—In a Brazilian presidential race already marked by the death of a candidate in a plane crash and wild swings in polls, Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff was poised to win the most votes in a Sunday election that has become so close it will likely go to a runoff election later this month.
A former Marxist guerrilla-turned-politician, Ms. Rousseff went into Sunday’s vote with polls giving her a healthy lead over her challengers, but falling short of the 50% she needs to win outright and avoid an Oct. 26 runoff.
That has turned Sunday’s vote into a race for second place between Marina Silva, a former senator running as a reformer, and Aécio Neves, a more-conservative politician campaigning on lifting the economy. Polls show these candidates in a photo-finish following a recent surge by Mr. Neves.
But this Brazilian election has already seen dramatic swings, and Ms. Rousseff could conceivably clinch the election Sunday if a late flurry of campaigning in Brazil’s populous south pulls more voters into her camp. Brazil’s voting stations were set to close at 7 p.m. Eastern Standard Time.
“We’re on a roller coaster,” said Andre Cesar, a political consultant based in the capital Brasília.
The tight election reflects uncertainty about the path forward in a resource-rich nation coming to grips with a waning commodities boom. Just four years ago, Brazil’s economy was surging forward at a 7.5% pace as the boom promised to lift millions from poverty and speed the nation’s development.
But the economy is undergoing a wrenching U-turn. Brazil slipped into recession this year after four years of stagnation, and inflation is on the rise. The state-owned oil company Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. is mired in alleged embezzlement and other scandals. Since Ms. Rousseff took office, the real has lost a third of its value against the dollar and the stock market is down by 21%.
Last year, around a million Brazilians took to the streets in mass marches protesting everything from poor hospitals and schools to corruption and the $11.5 billion price tag to host the World Cup. Ms. Rousseff’s popularity plunged, prompting talk that her left-wing Workers’ Party was vulnerable to losing the election after 12 years in power.
“It’s time for a change,” said Jose Luiz Francisco, a 66-year- old resident of the working class outskirts of São Paulo. Though Mr. Francisco voted for Ms. Rousseff in 2010, he said he cast his vote earlier Sunday for a challenger, Ms. Silva.
In recent weeks, Ms. Silva and Mr. Neves have sought to build campaigns among those seeking change, mainly middle-class and better-off voters. Born in a rubber-tapping camp in Brazil’s Amazon jungle, Ms. Silva’s compelling life story of early impoverishment gave her inroads among Brazil’s poor.
She leapt to a lead in polls after entering the race late following the Aug. 13 death of the Socialist Party candidate Eduardo Campos in a plane crash. But her campaign withered under blistering negative advertising attacks by both Mr. Neves and Ms. Rousseff. In recent days, many one-time Silva voters have switched to Mr. Neves as the best candidate to unseat Ms. Rousseff.
But Ms. Rousseff has retained a deep reservoir of support among millions of poor and working-class voters who remain fearful of change and support the incumbent as a continuity candidate. During 12 years in power, the Workers’ Party has greatly expanded social-welfare programs that have helped lift some 36 million people from extreme poverty.
Meanwhile, with many other voters seeking change, Ms. Rousseff has built a lead partly by presenting herself as the candidate to meet that demand as well. One of her campaign themes is that projects designed to transform the country, such as new railroads and irrigation infrastructure, will only be completed in a second term. One of her slogans is: “More Change, More Future.”
Voting in the middle-class neighborhood of Tijuca in Rio de Janeiro, Waldemir Mello, a 53-year-old medical-equipment technician, said Ms. Rousseff has proved a solid steward and deserves another term.
Around 140 million Brazilians are headed to the polls to elect their president on Sunday. Instead of ballots, though, they’ll cast their votes electronically. WSJ's Paulo Trevisani reports. (Photo: AP)
“Brazil has achieved a lot in the past four years, “ Mr. Mello said. “I want them to continue their current projects.”
—Loretta Chao in São Paulo, Paul Kiernan in Belo Horizonte and Will Connors in Rio de Janeiro contributed to this article.
Write to John Lyons at john.lyons@wsj.com
No comments:
Post a Comment