How an Insurgency Threatens Mozambique’s Gas Bonanza

By Matthew Hill and Paul Burkhardt

August 19, 2020, 3:00 AM EDT

Total SA and Eni SpA are forging ahead with plans to tap huge natural gas deposits that were discovered off the northern coast of Mozambique a decade ago. Their projects and another being considered by Exxon Mobil Corp. could entail $60 billion in investment and have the potential to turn around the economy of one of the world’s poorest countries. The developments have coincided with a series of increasingly brazen attacks by Islamist insurgents in the southern African country. While the main project sites have been spared from the violence so far, the security risks to the biggest investment splurge in Africa are ratcheting up.

1. Who is behind the attacks?

Most of the insurgents are poor, disenfranchised local youths, although some have come from Tanzania and other nearby states. They started out as an Islamic sect in 2007 and refer to themselves as al-Shabaab, as do locals, but they don’t have any known links to the Somali group that goes by that name and is allied to al-Qaeda. In 2018, they aligned themselves to Islamic State, which has claimed responsibility for dozens of attacks staged in the far northern Cabo Delgado province.

2. How bad is the violence?

The insurgency began with an assault on the port town of Mocimboa da Praia in 2017 and has since ramped up significantly, with Mozambique experiencing the sharpest rise in Islamist attacks globally last year. The sophistication, scale and frequency of incursions has continued to escalate this year, with the attackers utilizing rocket-propelled grenades and other powerful weapons seized from the military. More than 1,500 people have died and more than 250,000 have been displaced since the violence began. Several sub-contractors on the gas projects have been killed while outside the perimeter of their sites. The bulk of the violence has been directed against remote villages, although three major towns have been temporarily captured. They include Mocimboa da Praia, a key logistics hub, which has been occupied several times.

3. How important are the projects to Mozambique?

The nation could be transformed into one of the world’s largest gas exporters when the new projects come on stream. The government hopes to reap as much as $100 billion in revenue over the next quarter-century -- more than six times the current annual gross domestic product. Mozambique is still struggling to emerge from a 16-year civil war that ended in 1992 and badly needs the income. Money is expected to start flowing from Total’s $23 billion project in 2024. Gas production is set to galvanize the development of other local industries, including the production of electricity, fuel and fertilizer.

4. Could they be derailed?

It’s unlikely, given that the oil majors involved are attuned to operating in conflict zones and have already made substantial investments. The drilling sites that lie about 40 kilometers (25 miles) offshore are relatively easy to protect and the onshore projects are well secured within a vast compound that has its own airport and direct access to the ocean to bring in supplies. Still, ongoing violence could result in logistical delays and the killing of workers may have a bearing on Exxon’s final investment decision.

5. How is the government managing the threat?

The army has struggled to contain the violence as the insurgents’ ranks swelled and they gained access to better weaponry and other resources. The advocacy group Human Rights Watch has accused the security forces of resorting to extra-judicial killings and other heavy-handed tactics against suspects. The government has hired Russian and South African mercenaries to quell the attacks, but they too have had limited success. More recently, the state has also started social programs targeting vulnerable youths in Cabo Delgado in a bid to address widespread discontent over a lack of jobs and other economic opportunities in the predominantly Muslim area.

6. How have other countries responded?

The 16-nation Southern African Development Community, a regional trading bloc, has said it is committed to helping Mozambique combat terrorism and violent attacks, while nations including the U.S., France and Portugal have also offered assistance. Mozambique’s Defense Minister Jaime Neto has urged the country’s neighbors to strengthen their border controls to prevent fighters from entering Cabo Delgado, but says other outside help isn’t needed. Islamic State has warned that it would be “delusional” to think that Mozambique’s government could protect the investments and threatened to stage attacks in South Africa, the regional powerhouse, if it intervenes.