Sudan War: Cairo Emerges as Potential Mediator

President al-Sisi shakes hand with al-Burhan on August 29, 2023

Increased diplomatic activity in Cairo sparks hope for Egyptian mediation in the ongoing Sudanese conflict.

March 15, 2024 (CAIRO) – Recent high-level visits to the Egyptian capital by key figures involved in the Sudanese crisis suggest a potential breakthrough. Sudanese President Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, opposition leader Abdallah Hamdok, and Darfur Governor Minni Arko Minawi all held discussions with Egyptian officials.

Talks aim to revive a crucial meeting between the commanders of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), considered a critical step towards ending the war. Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan Daglo (Hemetti) hold significant influence, and their agreement is essential for a lasting solution.

The Arab League, with strong Egyptian backing, has emerged as a potential host for the meeting, offering its experience in mediating the recent Libyan conflict. Similar to the successful Libyan talks held under the League’s auspices, Saudi Arabia’s involvement is also being explored to ensure a regional approach aligns with the Jeddah agreement.

Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit confirmed his readiness to host all warring Sudanese parties, underlining the organization’s commitment to resolving the crisis. This focus on inclusivity strengthens the prospects for a comprehensive peace agreement.

This flurry of diplomatic activity in Cairo presents a glimmer of hope for ending the year-long conflict in Sudan. The potential for a Burhan-Hemedti meeting, facilitated by the Arab League and supported by regional powers, offers a path towards a sustainable solution.

Egypt-Saudi efforts

Close collaboration between Saudi Arabia and Egypt fuels hope for ending the conflict in Sudan. This was evident in their joint ministerial statement last January, urging an “immediate ceasefire.”

A proposed meeting in Cairo could lead to a breakthrough. The “Egyptian formula” aims to bring together the commanders of the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces under the Arab League’s umbrella. Approval from Sudanese leadership and the RSF is crucial for a broader solution. Following this, partners like Saudi Arabia, the United States, and others would be involved in further discussions.

Former Prime Minister Hamdok might revisit Cairo during Ramadan to finalize the proposal and invite the Chairman of the Sovereign Council al-Burhan and General Hemetti.

The UN Security Council echoes the regional efforts. Their recent resolution urges both Sudanese military forces to “cease hostilities during the holy month.”

Despite the international push, the ongoing fighting remains a critical factor. The situation on the ground ultimately dictates the success or failure of these peace initiatives.

Minawi casts doubt

However, Darfur Governor Minni Arko Minawi throws cold water on the prospect of a crucial meeting in Cairo between Sudanese military leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and his rival Mohamed Hamdan Daglo (Hemetti).

Minawi cites the collapse of a similar attempt in December 2023. He attributes the failure to the “euphoria” surrounding the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) military gains and potential external encouragements.

Furthermore, Minawi expresses concern that recent military advancements by the Sudanese army might lead to a repeat of the situation, hindering the possibility of renewed dialogue between the key figures.

In December 2023, al-Burhan initially agreed to meet Hemetti in Djibouti under the IGAD framework. However, the meeting collapsed due to the RSF leader’s refusal to attend without the involvement of all IGAD leaders. Sudan subsequently suspended its IGAD membership, protesting the organization’s focus solely on the internal conflict and holding individual participation.

Competing regional agendas

Concerns mount regarding potential interference from overlapping Arab and Arab-African interests. This complex web threatens to stall Egyptian and Arab League mediation attempts in Sudan.

The UAE’s suspected support for General Hemetti raises doubts about its neutrality in the conflict. This casts a shadow on its potential involvement as a mediator.

The recent $35 billion deal granting Abu Dhabi development rights in Egypt’s Ras Al-Hikma region has fuelled speculation of broader political cooperation, potentially encompassing the ongoing conflict in Sudan. Reported secret talks in Manama involving Egypt and the UAE for the first time further highlight the intricate web of regional involvement. It is worth mentioning that Cairo organised the Manama meeting.

A key Sudanese army negotiating delegation member disclosed U.S. pressure to include the UAE in the Jeddah peace talks.

However, he firmly rejected the involvement of RFS backers, saying that Sudan prioritises continued Saudi-American mediation.

“However, if Abu Dhabi demonstrably ceases its support for the insurgency and takes concrete steps to foster an environment conducive to resolving the conflict as outlined in our Jeddah proposal, then its potential role as a mediator can be reevaluated,” he said.

(ST)