Trump Widens Lead After Biden’s Debate Debacle, Times/Siena Poll Finds

Donald Trump is ahead of President Biden by six percentage points among likely voters in a new national survey. Overall, 74 percent of voters view Mr. Biden as too old for the job, an uptick since the debate.

Note: The margin of sampling error for likely voters is plus or minus 2.9 points. For registered voters it is plus or minus 2.8 points.Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,532 voters nationwide conducted from June 28 to July 2, 2024.By Lily Boyce

By Shane Goldmacher, New York Times

July 3, 2024

3:53 p.m. ET

Donald J. Trump’s lead in the 2024 presidential race has widened after President Biden’s fumbling debate performance last week, as concerns that Mr. Biden is too old to govern effectively rose to new heights among Democrats and independent voters, a new poll from The New York Times and Siena College showed.

Mr. Trump now leads Mr. Biden 49 percent to 43 percent among likely voters nationally, a three-point swing toward the Republican from just a week earlier, before the debate. It is the largest lead Mr. Trump has recorded in a Times/Siena poll since 2015. Mr. Trump leads by even more among registered voters, 49 percent to 41 percent.

Doubts about Mr. Biden’s age and acuity are widespread and growing. A majority of every demographic, geographic and ideological group in the poll — including Black voters and those who said they will still be voting for him — believe Mr. Biden, 81, is too old to be effective.

Overall, 74 percent of voters view him as too old for the job, up five percentage points since the debate. Concerns about Mr. Biden’s age have spiked eight percentage points among Democrats in the week since the debate, to 59 percent. The share of independent voters who said they felt that way rose to 79 percent, nearly matching the Republican view of the president.

How polls have changed since the debate

The poll offers early empirical evidence of what many Democrats have feared: That Mr. Biden’s faltering debate performance has further imperiled his chances against Mr. Trump this fall. Some Democratic lawmakers and donors are raising questions about Mr. Biden’s fitness following his struggles to finish his thoughts or articulate a vision during the debate, and they are demanding that Mr. Biden prove for a skeptical public that he is capable of serving until he is 86.

There were a couple of faint glimmers of good news for Mr. Biden in the poll.

One was that he narrowed Mr. Trump’s edge among independent voters, even if that gain was more than offset by his erosion among Democrats and Mr. Trump’s improvement among Republicans. Another was that the share of Democratic voters who think Mr. Biden should no longer be the nominee ticked up, but by far less than the rising Democratic concern about his age. The first calls from Capitol Hill lawmakers for him to step aside came on Tuesday.

Overall, more voters thought Mr. Biden should remain the Democratic nominee — but only because more Republicans, perhaps emboldened after the debate, said they now want him as their opponent.

THE NEW YORK TIMES/SIENA COLLEGE POLL

Do you think Joe Biden should remain the Democratic Party’s nominee for president, or should there be a different Democratic nominee for president?

Do you think Donald Trump should remain the Republican Party’s nominee for president, or should there be a different Republican nominee for president?

“If this was a boxing match, it would have been a T.K.O. in the first round — please somebody stop this already,” George Lee, a 44-year-old health care adviser in Brooklyn, said of watching Mr. Biden suffer rhetorical punch after punch at the debate. “He doesn’t have his wits about him. That’s clear from last week. They’ve been saying it for a long time, but the world saw it.”

Mr. Lee, a Democrat, said he wished Mr. Biden would step aside but that he would still vote for him to stop Mr. Trump. He fretted, “There’s no way he’s going to win now.”

The poll also showed the depth of concern for Mr. Biden’s fitness. Half of voters go much further than thinking Mr. Biden is too old to be effective: A full 50 percent agree that his “age is such a problem that he is not capable of handling the job of president,” including 55 percent of independent voters.

Voters have some concern about Mr. Trump’s age, too, but far less than for Mr. Biden’s.

After the debate, 42 percent of voters view Mr. Trump as too old for the job, an increase of three points from a week prior that was driven heavily by Democrats. Only 19 percent of voters said Mr. Trump was so old he was not capable of handling the job.

One of the more interesting findings in the poll was that men accounted for virtually all of Mr. Trump’s post-debate gains.

Mr. Trump has made appeals to machismo a centerpiece of his 2024 campaign, making his first public appearance after his felony conviction related to paying hush money to a porn star a visit to a U.F.C. fight, for instance.

In the pre-debate poll, Mr. Trump had led among likely male voters by 12 percentage points. After the debate, his lead among men ballooned to 23 points. That movement was particularly concentrated among younger men and men without college degrees.

Mr. Biden’s five-point edge among likely women voters before the debate actually ticked up slightly, to eight points.

Those who said they had watched the CNN debate, which was held in Atlanta, said Mr. Trump outperformed Mr. Biden, 60 percent to 22 percent.

Only 16 percent of voters said Mr. Biden did well, and a meager 3 percent said he did very well. In an era of intense partisanship, even Democrats felt that Mr. Biden had flopped.

About one-third of Democrats said Mr. Biden did well compared to 89 percent of Republicans who said the same of Mr. Trump.

The debate was watched live by more than 50 million Americans, and 59 percent of voters said they had tuned in. Only 10 percent said they had not heard about the debate, 15 percent said they had heard about it and another 16 percent said they had watched clips afterward.

It was that last cohort, the clip-watchers, whose view of Mr. Biden’s age problem was the most acute, perhaps because some of Mr. Biden’s most incoherent answers quickly went viral.

Around 80 percent of those who watched clips or heard about the debate but did not watch live thought Mr. Biden was too old. Voters who watched the debate live or did not watch at all were in the low 70 percentage range.

The Times/Siena survey before the debate had appeared more favorable to Mr. Trump than the national average of polls at the time. One explanation had been that Republicans had been more responsive than Democrats when called for that survey, perhaps a sign of enthusiasm after Mr. Trump’s conviction. A higher response rate for a particular group is not necessarily an indicator of an inaccurate result. But even so, in this new survey, response rates between the parties returned to their usual level of parity.

The Biden campaign, in an internal staff memo on Wednesday, braced aides for potential poor polling and the Times/Siena poll, in particular.

“Polls are a snapshot in time and we should all expect them to continue to fluctuate,” wrote Julie Chavez Rodriguez, the campaign manager, and Jen O’Malley Dillon, the campaign chair. They said internal metrics showed the race within the margin of error. The campaign had previously released a post-debate poll showing Mr. Biden trailing Mr. Trump, but the campaign said the margin had not changed since before the debate.

In the Times/Siena poll, when voters were asked about possible third-party and independent candidates, Mr. Trump’s lead expanded by two percentage points in the last week. Mr. Trump was ahead of Mr. Biden 42 percent to 37 percent after the debate when the survey included six potential candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who earned 8 percent support. Mr. Trump had led 40 percent to 37 percent before the debate.

The 2024 race pits two nominees who are historically unpopular against each other, and the unfavorable ratings of both candidates rose slightly after the debate. Mr. Biden’s rose to 61 percent, and Mr. Trump’s to 55 percent.

The Biden campaign had hoped that the debate — and seeing Mr. Trump onstage in a way he hasn’t been seen since he occupied the White House — would pull some of the Democratic voters who have been reluctant to support Mr. Biden in 2024 back into the fold.

The poll, which like all others is a snapshot in time, did not show any Democratic consolidation.

Mr. Biden’s standing in the poll did improve among Black voters, but it eroded among Hispanic voters, although the sample size of both demographic groups was relatively small in the survey.

The poll also revealed a deep generational rift inside the Democratic Party.

When it comes to Mr. Biden’s fitness for another term, 77 percent of Democrats under 45 think the president is too old to be effective, while only 49 percent of those older than 45 agree.

Similarly, 56 percent of Democrats under 45 approve of Mr. Biden’s job, while 90 percent of Democrats older than that rated him positively.

The debate did succeed in another Biden goal: Getting voters to tune into the race. The share of voters paying a lot of attention to the campaign was jolted up 9 percentage points in the wake of the much-discussed debate.

More voters said in the poll that re-electing Mr. Biden in November would be a risky choice for the country than those who said it of Mr. Trump. In the survey, 63 percent of voters said Mr. Biden was a risky choice, compared to 56 percent who said Mr. Trump was risky.

Roughly one in four Democrats said Mr. Biden was a risky choice rather than a safe one; they were nearly twice as likely to think of Mr. Biden as risky as Republicans were to view Mr. Trump that way.

Voters had viewed the candidates as equally risky back in April.

Mr. Biden faces other headwinds beyond his age.

The economy and inflation were the top issues for voters in the Times/Siena surveys both before and after the debate, and Mr. Trump is winning voters who prioritize those issues overwhelmingly.

Also, by a wide margin, voters look back more fondly on Mr. Trump’s time in office than Mr. Biden’s. Just 34 percent said Mr. Biden made the country better, while 47 percent said the same about Mr. Trump’s tenure. And for almost every demographic group, more voters said Mr. Biden had made the country worse rather than better. Black voters were the biggest exception.

A majority of voters, 50 percent to 39 percent, said Mr. Trump would best handle whatever issue they felt was the most important one facing the country.

Our polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. About 93 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for this poll. You can see the exact questions that were asked and the order in which they were asked here.

Voters are selected for the survey from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For this poll, we placed more than 190,000 calls to more than 113,000 voters.

To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups that are underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of our respondents and the weighted sample on the methodology page, under “Composition of the Sample.”

The poll’s margin of sampling error among registered voters is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When computing the difference between two values — such as a candidate’s lead in a race — the margin of error is twice as large.

You can see full results and a detailed methodology here. If you want to read more about how and why we conduct our polls, you can see answers to frequently asked questions and submit your own questions here.