Sudan Advances Toward Its Future

President Omar Hassan al-Bashir of Sudan along with former head-of-state Thabo Mbeki of the Republic of South Africa. Both nations have sought an independent foreign policy towards Africa and the rest of the world.
Originally uploaded by Pan-African News Wire File Photos

January 11, 2011

Sudan Advances Toward Its Future

By THABO MBEKI
New York Times

The referendum currently taking place in southern Sudan will end a protracted period of deadly conflict in the country.

During its first half-century of independence Sudan was at war with itself for 38 years. This situation could not continue forever. Sooner or later the Sudanese had to answer the question: What should they do to achieve peace?

Throughout the war years the answer was clear. It had been communicated by the southern rebellion which broke out in 1955, initiating the first civil war. Colonial Britain had governed the north and the south as two different entities. The policies it pursued resulted in the relative development of the north and the absolute underdevelopment of the south.

Accordingly, the south feared that its integration in an independent Sudan would result in its domination by the north. It therefore took up arms demanding such autonomy as would allow the people of southern Sudan to exercise their right to self-determination, without this extending to independence.

The rebellion sought to make the simple point that for Sudan to exist as a united country, it would have to construct a constitutional order and a political economy that would respect its manifest diversity.

The north elected to reject this demand and suppress it by force of arms.

Like colonial Britain, the northern Sudanese post-colonial ruling group implemented policies which discriminated against the south and used force to perpetuate the resultant gross inequality.

The sustained pursuit of this double-pronged strategy intended to maintain the unity of Sudan, but under the control of a dominant northern minority, persuaded the southern Sudanese that they had to go beyond the demand advanced in 1955 and fight for independence.

The force of the latter position proved so strong that it prevailed over the alternative perspective advanced especially by the eminent, long-time leader of the second north-south war, the late John Garang.

Mr. Garang argued that the objective of the southern armed struggle should be the creation of a New Sudan. This would be a united, democratic Sudan governed according to the constitutional order and political economy which would respect its diversity, as the southern rebels had demanded in 1955.

However that vision died with Mr. Garang, when, unfortunately, he perished in a helicopter crash in 2005, early in the life of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement he had negotiated.

With the demise of that vision it seems inevitable that the votes cast during the south Sudan referendum which began on Sunday will result in the division of Sudan into two countries, with effect from July 9.

Sudan is now preparing for this eventuality. President Omar al-Bashir visited Juba, the capital of south Sudan, five days before the referendum and assured the southerners that he would join them in their celebrations if they chose to secede. Later he said the north, in its own interest, would assist the new state to get on its feet.

For some time now the Sudanese leaders have been involved in negotiations to reach an agreement on various post-referendum arrangements which would define the relations between the possible two states.

They have agreed that the north and the south would work together to establish two viable states, based on acceptance of their interdependence and therefore the absolute imperative to cultivate mutually beneficial cooperation between themselves, directed at promoting their integration as equals.

Further agreements are being negotiated relating to such important matters as citizenship, the national debt, the sharing of the oil revenues, currency arrangements, relations among the communities along the north-south border, and security arrangements. These negotiations will also determine the institutions that should be created to manage the relations between the two states in the event of the secession of the south.

At the same time negotiations will continue, to resolve the outstanding matters of Abyei and the demarcation of the north-south border.

Some commentators have persisted in projecting the view that Sudan may slide back into war. However the situation facing both the north and the south, and their fundamental respective interests, oblige them to sustain the peace ushered in by the Comprehensive Peace Agreement.

The reality is that there will be no war. The option of war has had its day.

The exciting possibility is that exactly because of its painful history, Sudan may very well teach the whole of Africa how to respond to the challenge of diversity which has informed many of Africa’s conflicts, including those currently affecting the Ivory Coast and the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.

In time Africa will therefore celebrate both the peaceful resolution of the protracted conflict in Sudan, and the accumulation of new practical experience which would stand the continent in good stead as it strives to construct peaceful and democratic societies based on the perspective of unity in diversity.

Thabo Mbeki is a former president of South Africa and chairman of the African Union High Level Implementation Panel for Sudan, which includes former Presidents Abdulsalami Abubakar of Nigeria and Pierre Buyoya of Burundi.