Military Repression Escalates on the Eve of Presidential Elections in Egypt

Abayomi Azikiwe, editor of the Pan-African News Wire, appearing on the Press TV News Analysis program on September 30, 2011. The topic was on the 'Reclaiming the Revolution' protests in Egypt., a photo by Pan-African News Wire File Photos on Flickr.

Military Repression Escalates on the Eve of Presidential Elections in Egypt

Massacre at defense ministry and mass arrests may impact political future

By Abayomi Azikiwe
Editor, Pan-African News Wire

As Egyptians prepare for the first round of national presidential elections on May 23-24, a series of repressive measures have been enacted by the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF). The deaths of up to twenty people on May 2 outside the Ministry of Defense in the Abbassiya District of Cairo resulted from clashes between supporters of the Islamists political parties and armed militias that many inside the country believe were backed by the SCAF.

Illustrating the tensions that exist within the military apparatus itself and between the military and security forces on the one hand and the various political parties on the other, on May 7, hundreds of Egyptian riot police fled their camps and blockaded a highway leading out of Cairo. These actions were reportedly taken in the aftermath of reports that an officer had shot dead a conscript.

According to the state-owned Al-Ahram newspaper, “Senior security officials have managed to contain the crisis involving conscripts in the Central Security Forces (CSF) who cut the Cairo-Ismailiya desert road.” A security official confirmed to the French Press Agency (AFP) that hundreds of CSF conscripts had broken out of the “January 25” camp and took to the streets. (AFP, May 7)

Video footage obtained by the AFP showed the conscripts marching through the streets in civilian clothes denouncing the shooting of one of their colleagues. Al-Ahram stated that “an officer in the Central Security Forces attacked one of the conscripts leading to a fight between the two, which prompted a rumor among the conscripts that their colleague had been killed.”

Military and riot police were dispatched to the area to break up the demonstration. The CSF troops are poorly paid and are deployed to areas of unrest to contain mass demonstrations in the country where the political situation remains volatile.

The situation involving the CSF is being monitored closely by those in the military and various political forces. In 1986, there was a rebellion among the CSF troops when thousand took to the streets in violent protests that lasted for several days.

The incident among the CSF conscripts follows a series of events in Egypt which have raised tensions. On May 2, twenty people were killed in a six-hour confrontation outside the Ministry of Defense.

Although the SCAF have denied responsibility for the clashes on May 2 and immediately ordered an investigation by the interior ministry, many in Egypt feel that conditions are being created that could lead to the postponement of the upcoming presidential elections and the continuation of the dominant role of the military within governmental affairs. The SCAF has said that they will hand over power within sixty day of the elections and the creation of a new government.

Nonetheless, on Friday May 4, in response to demonstrations against the military in Cairo, a soldier was killed and several hundred people were injured. On the following day, May 5, the security forces arrested 300 people for interrogations that will last for 15 days.

The army also imposed an overnight curfew around the Ministry of Defense. Those held in the sweep on May 5 are being accused of assaulting army officers and soldiers, for gathering in a military zone and hampering armed forces personnel from conducting their duties. (Middle East Online, May 6)

The protests surrounding the defense ministry are related to the disqualification of two leading Islamist candidates in the upcoming presidential vote. Candidates for the Freedom and Justice Party (FPJ) and the Salafists were denied the right to participate in the elections. One, Khairat al-Shater of the FJP, was accused of having a criminal record under the Hosni Mubarak regime and the other, Hazim Abu Ismail of the Salifists, was told that his mother held United States citizenship, which he denied.

The Salafist al-Nour Party has denied involvement in the sit-ins outside the defense ministry. They have also attempted to disassociate the party from the disqualified candidacy of Hazim Abu Ismail. Yet al-Nour did denounce the clashes which took place on May 2 saying that the SCAF is attempting to delay the presidential elections.

The Candidates and the Political Future of Egypt

There were 23 candidates that initially filed to run for the presidency in Egypt. At least ten of these prospective candidates were disqualified by The Supreme Presidential Electoral Commission (SPEC).

On April 14 the SPEC announced the disqualification of ten candidates: Omar Suleiman, a former intelligence official in the Mubarak government, Khairat El-Shater of the FJP, Jazem Salah Abu Ismail of the Salafists movement, Ayman Nour, founder of the liberal El-Ghad Party, Ahmad Awad Al-Saidi, of the National Party of Egypt, Mortada Mansour, National Party of Egypt, Ibrahim El-Gharib, an English teacher, Mamdouh Outb, Civilization Party, Houssam Khayrat, Egyptian Arab Socialist Party and Ashraf Barouma, Misr Al-Kanana Party.

Complicating the situation for the two Islamist candidates, Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, an independent Muslim, and Mohammed Morsi of the FPJ, is that both are attempting to draw upon the same political base. Fotouh, a physician and a former leading official in the Muslim Brotherhood that is represented by the FPJ, was expelled from the organization after he purportedly broke party discipline in seeking an independent electoral campaign for the presidency.

Morsi, who is the official FPJ candidate, is so far trailing behind Fotouh in the polls. According to recent reports, Fotouh is being supported by the Salafists Al-Nour Party as well as the more moderate Al-Wasat.

Nonetheless, the results of national polls indicate that the leading candidate for the presidency is Amr Moussa, the former Secretary General of the Arab League who was closely associated with the ousted government of Hosni Mubarak. In a survey conducted by Al-Ahram, 39 percent of prospective voters will support Moussa with Fotuoh coming in second garnering 24 percent and former Prime Minister Ahmed Shafik, another Mubarak-era official, landing third place with 17.2 percent.

Mohamed Morsi of the FPJ received only 7 percent in the poll. The survey was based on interviews with 1,200 people throughout the country.

Moussa has campaigned in the Suez Canal area and has pledged to create what he calls a new economic zone along the region as well as investing in neighboring Sinai, where the Bedouin sector is based. The Bedouin have long complained of being marginalized in Egyptian politics and economic development.

On May 7, Farag al-Muteir, a Swarka leader in Qantara, stated that “We swear an oath of allegiance to Amr Moussa, the next president of the Republic of Egypt, because of his broad political experience.” Moussa is aiming to win 50 percent in the first round which would eliminate the necessity of a run-off election on June 16-17.

However, achieving 50 percent may be a formidable task. In the case of a run-off vote it would likely be Moussa against an Islamist candidate which could unite the religious constituency, which controls approximately half of the parliament.

The backdrop to the elections also includes a major conflict between the Islamist-dominated parliament and the cabinet appointed by the SCAF which is headed by Prime Minister Kamal al-Ganzouri. The Islamists in parliament have attempted to dissolve the government in the lead-up to the presidential elections.

The Political Economy and International Relations

Despite Egypt’s wealth in natural gas, the national debt of the country is growing enormously. The overall indebtedness to international oil and gas companies by the government is said to be at least US$4 billion.

Egypt has spent years purchasing gas at international prices and selling it at subsidized rates in local markets, and as a result, the oil ministry is being compelled to renegotiate payments to foreign suppliers. Political unrest has also contributed to the decline in revenue in key sectors of the economy including tourism and the ongoing problems associated with exporting natural gas to neighboring Israel.

Magdi Nasrallah, Chair of the Petroleum and Energy Engineering Department at American University in Cairo, noted that “These international oil companies are having difficulty getting their money back, but the government is putting pressure on them to be reasonable. We could see a round of negotiating of different prices of contracts, but this won’t be now. You’re also talking about a government that is in a state of limbo.” (albawaba.com, May 6)

The situation in Egypt is being followed closely by the ruling class in the United States. Also Israel and Saudi Arabia are concerned about developments in the country of 80 million people which is strategically located and historically has been a trailblazer for political trends in other parts of Africa and the Middle East.

Egypt is the second largest recipient of direct foreign assistance from the U.S. The Pentagon supplies the military with over a billion dollars annually in assistance. In addition there are joint military exercises and exchange of intelligence resources between Washington and Cairo.

The State of Israel is concerned that the 1979 separate peace treaty with the former leader Anwar Sadat could be revoked. Recently the government cancelled an agreement with Israel to supply natural gas after months of sabotage of the pipelines between the two countries.

Saudi Arabia, a close ally of the U.S., had withdrawn its ambassador from Egypt over a dispute involving the prosecution and arrest of a human right lawyer from Egypt. The monarchy in Saudi Arabia is concerned that developments in Egypt will influence the emergence of a revolutionary movement inside the Kingdom.

These variables will have an impact on the elections and post-elections processes. Progressive forces inside the U.S. and around the world must follow the political situation in Egypt and provide whatever support possible to the revolutionary elements inside the country.