RAMAPHOSA WON THE ANC BATTLE BUT THE WAR FOR THE COUNTRY RAGES ON

Cyril Ramaphosa African National Congress (ANC) 2022 ANC national elective conference

Mandy Wiener | 22 December 2022 06:13

OPINION

Just two weeks ago, Cyril Ramaphosa was on the verge of resigning as president of South Africa over the Phala Phala report. He had to be talked down from the ledge. His close allies had to remind him that if he walked, all the efforts to reform the country and rebuild the institutions eviscerated during former president Jacob Zuma's years would be reversed.

A fortnight later, Ramaphosa emerged from the African National Congress elective conference at Nasrec stronger than when he went into it. He has a top seven in the ANC that largely supports him with five members coming from the slate of the so-called "Renewals".

This means he has a second term full of potential for the implementation of his reform agenda. Ramaphosa’s victory also means that for now at least, the attempts to rebuild key institutions like the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA), the South African Revenue Service and the Hawks will continue.

This is not to say that Ramaphosa is the panacea for all the country’s troubles. He has shown himself to be a reluctant president, overly consultative and unable to make difficult decisions. The Phala Phala allegations are real too and he has to answer to them.

The margins of victory at Nasrec for those on his slate were skinny and some just squeaked in. Gwede Mantashe won the position of chairperson by just 1%. This means continued disunity in the party.

There has been a view from businesses and some analysts that Ramaphosa would, in his second term, be emboldened, free from the restrictions of the radical economic transformation faction, and able to do more and do it faster.

Overall impressions are that the ANC is broken and on a rapid decline, unable to deal with the myriad crises it faces as governing party. It is unwieldy and ineffective. Leaders are more intent on personal political survival than real upliftment and service delivery. There is no clear succession plan.

The schedule ran late throughout. The conference technically hasn't finished. It will reconvene in a hybrid format on 5 January. They didn't finish policy resolutions and the adoptions of reports. It was all about personalities and power.

For those not in the Nasrec bubble, looking in from the outside, the party’s shambolic running of its conference was in many ways a reflection of how it has been running the country. This may well accelerate its decline in favour of opposition parties.

The Organisational Report gave a frank assessment of this. The first line in its conclusion reads that “we must acknowledge that the ANC is experiencing a crisis that threatens its very existence." It speaks of the disunity and factionalism that remain rampant within its rank and how the party is now at a crossroads. If it doesn’t do something drastic, it will not convince the electorate to vote for it in the next elections.

Now the road leads to 2024 and national elections and we will see whether the ANC will remain above 50%. After this weekend, I doubt it.

Ramaphosa closed the conference on Tuesday with a speech promising "unity" and "renewal" and prioritising the fight against corruption. He said the ANC had "made mistakes and missteps and we have paid for them in many, many ways, but even at the brink, we've been able to pull ourselves back where many people thought we will stumble and fall forever".

"Corruption in the ANC is a dire threat to the organisation and the future of the democratic revolution,” he added.

Ramaphosa is going to have a challenging time unifying the party as it emerges from Nasrec. He is going to have an even more difficult time continuing on his clean up ticket as he continues to fend off the Phala Phala issue.

But now that he has won this battle in the party, he must focus on putting out fires in the country, most notably dealing with Eskom and the energy crisis. There is also a stalled economy, massive unemployment, a potential grey listing, shambolic service delivery and ailing infrastructure.

His spokesperson has been at pains to assure us over the past week that the President has not taken his eye off the ball and he remains seized with matters of state, such as Eskom.

With Andre de Ruyter having resigned as CEO, Ramaphosa will have to move to assure the public that there is a plan in place to manage the electricity crisis.

Mantashe also leaves Nasrec more entrenched with Ramaphosa than before. He has played a fundamental role in galvanising support for the president and was also critical to convincing him to stay in office.

There were also discussions at the ANC conference about moving Eskom back to the Energy Minister’s portfolio, which means Mantashe will be the minister responsible. This does not bode well for the country’s move away from coal to renewables and finding a fast and lasting solution to the power crisis.

There are other questions too.

How long will David Mabuza stay on as deputy president of the country? Paul Mashatile has indicated he wants to move into government. Will Ramaphosa reshuffle his Cabinet, and how soon? Surely he has to fire Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma and Lindiwe Sisulu? Reports suggest that Dlamini Zuma could go in January but Sisulu may have to be pushed. Who will replace Fikile Mbalula as Transport Minister now that he is full time at Luthuli House? The portfolio of Public Service and Administration has also been empty for months now.

Ramaphosa has to be an action man in his second term. He has to make decisions like he has nothing to lose. He must be bold and decisive. Who knows what the national elections will bring in 2024. There may well be a change of government. The ANC could be in coalition with partners that have their own desires.

The president has won the battle in the ANC. But the fight to fix South Africa is still raging and he will have to do things differently if he is going to win it.