Ballot, Bullet: The Double Face of Africa’s Power Takeovers

January 9, 2025

How is the continent grappling with the mixed trend?

As Africa continues to grapple with increasing trend of cope d’état both revered and reviled by the general public, the intensions and repercussions of these actions remain largely disputed. And, Scholars still hold mixed opinions towards the change of governments and their detrimental impacts in the continent.

At face values, Africa has been undergoing both mixed trajectories when it comes to democratization and transfer of power. The situation in the western part of the continent over the last couple of years has been a typical example of the growing trend.

With some nations at least in western definitions have been able to hold peaceful and democratic polls leading to peaceful transfer of powers, dozens of nations also become hotbed for coup d’état.

The change of governments both in election and through the barrel of guns have been hotly debated by some observers as they cast differed opinions on the causes and effects of coup d’états.

While some praise the nations that have been consistent on peaceful transfer of power, some question the process, equally true is some also try to see the cope d’état in some nations as a revolution against neocolonialism. What is at stake is the toll these trends have been resulting in the continent.

And, at the helm of the subject is also whether government’s that assume pore peacefully or forcefully are delivering their promises to the people.

Research indicated that from 1956 to 2001, there were approximately 80 successful coups, 108 failed attempts, and 139 plots in sub-Saharan Africa. Countries like Sudan have witnessed numerous coups, while others, such as Botswana, have remained stable.

In recent years, the African Union (AU) has made progress in addressing unconstitutional changes in government. Although it previously lacked a robust response, the AU has implemented regulations to suspend the membership of countries that come to power via coups.

In the past two decades, the African Union (AU) and various Regional Economic Communities have made substantial strides in tackling unconstitutional government changes across Africa. Member States have focused on fostering democracy and good governance, emphasizing the importance of conducting elections that are free, fair, and transparent, while adhering to constitutional term limits.

However, despite these efforts, the continent is still experiencing an increase in the number of Member States which modify and eliminate constitutional term limits, resist efforts to institute term limits in their constitutions, and experience unconstitutional changes of government.

A high-level AU forum held from March 15 to 17, 2022, in Accra, Ghana, addressed these challenges. The forum concluded in the adoption of the Accra Declaration on Unconstitutional Changes of Government, outlining a series of actions for the AU, Regional Economic Communities, and Member States to effectively confront the issue of unconstitutional governance on the continent.

Some Experts suggested that sometimes some coups can serve as a means to curb foreign interference in national affairs.

Dawit Mezgebe, a PhD candidate, on African & Asian Studies at Addis Ababa University recognized the existence of democratic transitions of power but emphasized that some are peaceful coups that often lead to changing their country into sustainable development strategies.

He highlighted from West Africa, where some leaders have successfully transformed their nations through coups. For instance, the Malian Moussa Traoré coup is cited as a positive development, as it aimed to forward the nation’s trajectory toward more sustainable growth.

He asserted that Western nations play a significant role in perpetuating dictatorship across Africa, not only Africa but also in the world of coups. He claimed that most of the military coups on the continent are prompted or supported by Western powers.

He mentioned that the leaders who emerged after the coups, with the exception of Burkinabe Thomas Sankara are frequently perceived as serving the western interests rather than addressing the local needs.

Mohammed Hassen, a lecturer at the African & Asian Studies Research Center of Addis Ababa University, emphasized that the political landscape of Africa, marked by its colonial past, has fostered the rise of authoritarian regimes partly. Consequently, many leaders fail to fulfill their promises, resulting in weakened institutions and persistent instability.

He further stated that external powers have interest in fostering a cohesive and organized Africa. Instead, they often perpetuate rumors and misinformation, undermining the continent’s potential, particularly given its wealth of natural resources. This external interference complicated Africa’s quest for self-determination and effective governance.

However, Dawit also pointed out that many other countries have suffered severe economic downturns and instability as a result of violent coups.

He further mentioned that coups lead to immediate violence and loss of life, destabilizing the continent’s geopolitics, causing economic downturns, and resulting in widespread displacement and brain drain. He also noted that the diplomatic relations of affected nations with the international community suffer, further isolating them.

He stressed that whatever peaceful or harsh results of coups are not recommendations for Africa due to their coming through the bloodiest; it’s the cause of the loss of millions of lives.

Mohammed cited the cases of Niger and Mauritania as examples where the AU has taken action, contrasting this with a perceived absence of response to other countries experiencing similar turmoil.

For Africa to thrive, a smooth and democratic transfer of power is essential. This process requires legitimate elections in which winners peacefully assume leadership and losing parties concede gracefully.

While some African nations profess to embrace democratic principles, Dawit argues that these systems are often mere façades designed to placate Western powers. He contends that true democracy, characterized by equitable governance, remains elusive, with scant evidence of genuine democratic practices being realized by African leaders.

History shows that military dictatorships have failed to create the promised utopia. Civil society groups have resisted military agendas, and African judiciaries have proven to be formidable opponents. Challenges have also emerged from abroad, particularly from the African diaspora.

Like other failed revolutions, militarists often blame the public for not supporting their vision and external forces for sabotaging their efforts. This narrative persists today.

Dawit called for a reevaluation of civil organizations and regional institutions to prioritize African interests, rather than merely echoing Western ideologies. He suggests that the path to genuine progress for Africa lies in breaking free from colonial legacies and establishing robust, locally-driven governance structures.

Experts emphasize the need for African leaders to adhere to AU regulations and implement its directives. Additionally, regional organizations must work to dismantle authoritarian regimes by enacting compatible legislation.

Initiatives by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) are particularly noteworthy and should be supported to promote democratic governance throughout Africa.

BY FIKADU BELAY

THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD THURSDAY 9 JANUARY 2025