Ghana’s Growth to Moderate in 2025 Amid Fiscal Tightening, Afreximbank Projects

By News Ghana 

July 9, 2025

Ghana’s economic expansion is expected to slow to 4.5% in 2025 before recovering to 4.8% in 2026, according to Afreximbank Research’s latest macroeconomic outlook.

The deceleration stems from sustained fiscal consolidation efforts, elevated interest rates, and weakened mining sector activity. Despite this moderation, key indicators show gradual stabilization across the economy.

Inflation is projected to decline to 15.5% in 2025 and further to 9% in 2026, building on the current rate of 13.7%. This trend reflects tighter monetary policy, exchange rate stability, and moderating food prices. The fiscal deficit is expected to narrow significantly—from recent levels to 3.5% of GDP in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026—driven by enhanced expenditure controls and public financial management reforms.

Debt and External Balances Improve

The Bank of Ghana maintains a high policy rate to anchor inflation expectations and stabilize the cedi, though currency depreciation pressures persist. External trade volumes continue growing despite global headwinds, signaling resilience. While mining output remains subdued, the oil and gold sectors bolster export earnings.

Outlook Hinges on Reform Continuity

Sustained fiscal discipline and successful debt restructuring will be critical to solidify macroeconomic gains ahead of Ghana’s 2028 elections. Afreximbank emphasizes that maintaining reform momentum could accelerate growth beyond 2026 and strengthen investor confidence in the medium term.