Uganda Raises Oil Reserves Estimate as First Production Nears in 2026

Regulator marks decade of operations with revised figures as drilling near completion and pipeline welding passes 1,000 km mark

November 21, 2025

The East African Crude Oil Pipeline route from Uganda to Tanzania © Uganda National Oil Company

Uganda has increased its estimate of recoverable oil and gas resources to 1.65 billion barrels, up from 1.4 billion, as it moves closer to beginning commercial production in the second half of 2026.

The Petroleum Authority of Uganda disclosed the revised figures Wednesday, as it marked a decade since its establishment, crediting the increase to enhanced data analysis of discoveries in the Albertine Graben basin. The regulator now oversees over 60 terabytes of electronic data at its National Petroleum Data Centre.

Ernest Rubondo, the authority’s executive director, said the country’s flagship Tilenga, Kingfisher and East African Crude Oil Pipeline projects had reached advanced stages of completion. “Uganda remains firmly on course to achieve first oil in the second half of 2026,” he said.

The Kingfisher project has completed all 19 of the wells required for initial production, while the Tilenga project has drilled 164 of the planned 170 wells, reaching 97 per cent completion.

The 1,443-kilometre EACOP pipeline, which will transport Ugandan crude oil to the Indian Ocean coast of Tanzania, has received all the necessary pipes, with over 1,000 kilometres having been welded.

Overall progress stands at 60 per cent for Tilenga, 74 per cent for Kingfisher, and 75 per cent for EACOP. These projects are among the most significant new oil developments in Africa, the petroleum authority said. The main operators are TotalEnergies and the China National Offshore Oil Corporation, alongside the state-owned Uganda National Oil Company.

The authority said Ugandan companies had secured $2.2bn of the $7bn in approved contracts, and that nearly 20,000 Ugandans are employed directly in the sector, with over 180,000 in indirect roles. Ugandans occupy 64 per cent of management positions and 85 per cent of technical roles.

A separate refinery project is also advancing, following the signing of an implementation agreement in March. The facility’s design is being finalised while the developers secure project financing and establish the refinery company, which has now been incorporated.

The petroleum authority emphasised that Uganda’s projects are designed to be among the least carbon-intensive in the world and will result in net biodiversity gains. Meanwhile, social programmes have provided 475 homes for people affected by the projects, and nearly 20,000 households have gained access to improved schools, health centres, and water systems.

Uganda discovered commercially viable oil reserves in 2006, but development has been delayed by protracted negotiations over tax terms, infrastructure costs, and environmental issues. Climate activists have criticised the projects over their environmental impact, particularly regarding the heated pipeline crossing sensitive ecosystems and water sources.

Uganda’s entry into oil production comes at a time when global demand projections are becoming increasingly uncertain due to the energy transition. However, African producers argue that their developments will serve growing domestic and regional markets while generating crucial revenues for development.