Right-Wing Forces Seek to Restore a Narco-State in Honduras

December 4, 2025 Hour: 7:48 am

Honduras is caught in a cycle of change and restoration. The elites are willing to sacrifice democracy to maintain control. From Manuel Zelaya’s presidency to the 2025 “electoral coup,” we see a struggle for sovereignty in a country marked by a two-party system and foreign influence.

The main point is clear: the elite has used undemocratic methods, like the 2009 military coup and the electoral fraud in 2017 and 2025, to block efforts to rebuild the nation.

When faced with social change, they prioritize their interests over democracy, using the Army and the justice system to protect themselves.

Manuel Zelaya and the Break from the Two-Party System (2006-2009)

Manuel Zelaya Rosales is key to a political shift aimed at dismantling Honduras’s two-party system. His rise to power began a polarization that defined the next two decades.

Zelaya started in the Liberal Party, linked to agribusiness and the two-party system. However, his presidency (2006-2009) turned left to tackle poverty and crises that the neoliberal model couldn’t fix.

This shift became a direct challenge to the establishment. Business and political elites viewed wealth redistribution as an attack on their interests, confronting decades of dominance.

The Diplomatic War Declaration: ALBA

Zelaya’s ideological change led to a bold foreign policy shift. In 2008, he joined the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA).

ALBA provided subsidized oil and solidarity, breaking from reliance on Western financial institutions.

These challenges, economic reorientation, and geopolitical sovereignty set the stage for the coup. The elite felt their power threatened.

The Violent Reaction: The Elite Coup of 2009

The elite’s response to Zelaya’s challenge was swift. The coup on June 28, 2009, was a violent reaction from business elites, military leaders, and the Judiciary against a president who dared to confront them.

The right justified breaking democracy by claiming Zelaya sought unconstitutional reelection through the “fourth ballot box.”

The coup showed a clear conflict with civilian elites. It illustrated that the two-party system was exhausted, marking a desperate attempt to maintain the status quo. On June 28, 2009, soldiers took Zelaya from his home and deported him to Costa Rica.

International Hypocrisy

The international response revealed the geopolitical game in the region. The Inter-American Human Rights System condemned the de facto regime’s actions.

The Court ruled against removing judges who opposed the coup, showing the Judiciary acted as an instrument for coup elites.

While Barack Obama’s administration initially condemned the coup, it avoided calling it a “military coup.” This allowed it to sidestep suspending military and economic aid.

By validating the results, the U.S. effectively legitimized Zelaya’s removal and the breakdown of democracy, prioritizing stability over justice.

The Consolidation of the Narco-State: Juan Orlando Hernández (JOH, 2014-2022)

Juan Orlando Hernández, from the National Party, benefited directly from the crisis caused by the 2009 coup. His presidency marked a dark chapter in Honduras’s history.

JOH rose to power after the coup. As President of the National Congress (2010–2013), he played a key role in consolidating the National Party’s control.

His presidency, starting in 2014, involved dismantling legal frameworks to maintain control. The constitution banned presidential reelection, but JOH manipulated the Supreme Court to lift this ban in 2015. This was seen as a “de facto constitutional break” that paved the way for dictatorship.

The 2017 Electoral Fraud and Imposition

JOH sought a second term in the 2017 elections, marked by serious irregularities. Against the Opposition Alliance (led by Salvador Nasralla and Zelaya), the process faced claims of computer manipulation and a mysterious crash of the counting system.

After the violent repression of protests, JOH was declared the winner. This act was seen as an “authoritarian imposition” and challenged by many as illegitimate.

The State as a Criminal Enterprise

JOH’s presidency represented a democratic setback and the rise of a Criminal State. U.S. investigations revealed his close ties to drug trafficking. Testimony indicated he received millions in bribes from the Sinaloa Cartel.

His brother, Juan Antonio “Tony” Hernández, was convicted for drug trafficking in the U.S. Evidence showed JOH used his position to protect and profit from drug operations, turning Honduras into a “narco-state.”

In December 2025, news of a potential pardon from Donald Trump raised concerns about protecting conservative elites aligned with U.S. interests, revealing how international justice can be politicized.

The Government of Xiomara Castro (2022-2025)

Iris Xiomara Castro Sarmiento’s story is tied to the 2009 coup and the fight against its regime.

After her husband’s overthrow, Castro became the face of the “Popular Resistance.” She co-founded the Liberty and Refoundation Party (LIBRE) to oppose the two-party system.

In the 2021 elections, Castro achieved a “historic victory” with over 51% of the vote, becoming Honduras’s first female president. Her win marked a break from the two-party dominance and a step toward restoring democracy.

The Refoundation Agenda

Castro focused on reversing the dictatorship’s legacy and restoring sovereignty. A key achievement was facilitating the extradition of JOH to the U.S. on drug charges, seen as a move to clean up the state.

She offered subsidies for electricity to poor families and reported a 13% reduction in poverty. To combat impunity, an International Commission against Corruption and Impunity was established with UN support.

In terms of geopolitical sovereignty, Castro shifted from Taiwan to diplomatic relations with China, prioritizing South-South cooperation over U.S. pressures.

Her term (2022-2025) is viewed as a phase of dismantling the dictatorship and paving the way for state “Refoundation.”

The Oligarchic Restoration: The 2025 Electoral Fraud

The November 2025 elections brought uncertainty and a setback for the left. They marked the end of Castro’s term.

Many see this electoral process as a “soft electoral coup” aimed at reversing the “Refoundation” project and restoring elite power.

The ruling party’s candidate, Rixi Moncada (LIBRE), came in a distant third with about 19% of the votes. This result shows the ruling party’s defeat.

The presidential race featured a “technical tie” between two candidates from traditional right factions: Nasry Asfura (National Party – PN) and Salvador Nasralla (Liberal Party – PL). Nasralla, a former LIBRE ally, weakened the progressive block and helped consolidate the conservative vote.

Imperial Interference and Silent Fraud

The elections faced “direct and brazen political intervention” from the United States. President Donald Trump openly backed Nasry Asfura (PN), labeling LIBRE and its allies as  “narco-communists.” This interference, along with the controversial pardon for Juan Orlando Hernández, was seen as “imperial pressure” aimed at “undermining Honduran sovereignty.”

Internally, the vote count faced “deliberate uncertainty” and accusations of fraud. Moncada and CNE advisors reported “serious irregularities,” such as technical failures in the National Electoral Council (CNE), known for manipulating results.

The Return of Oligarchic Two-Party Rule

Preliminary results achieved the elite’s goal of removing LIBRE from power. This outcome signals a return to control by conservative factions, which have long dominated Honduras.

The left’s displacement effectively cancels the break from the two-party system that followed Xiomara Castro’s historic 2021 victory. The traditional parties (PL and PN) regain executive control, maintaining an ideological stance against deep changes and full sovereignty.

Refoundation is Not Extinguished

Xiomara Castro’s term (2022-2025) aimed to dismantle the dictatorship and pave the way for State Refoundation.

However, the 2025 electoral defeat, driven by polarization, elite opposition, and intense geopolitical pressure from the right, shows the challenges of achieving deep changes in Honduras.

The 2009 coup revealed the limits of the two-party governance model and opened a period of instability. The 2025 “soft electoral coup” confirms that Honduran elites and their allies will use all means to block a popular and sovereign project.