Africa Set to Outgrow Asia as China Slows, IMF Data Shows: FT

By Al Mayadeen English

5 Jan 2026 15:27

The Financial Times reports that Africa may temporarily outpace Asia in economic growth due to China’s slowdown, though analysts warn that modest per-capita gains and structural constraints limit transformative development.

The Financial Times on Monday published an analysis arguing that Africa may, for the first time in modern history, register a higher average economic growth rate than Asia, a shift driven largely by Asia’s deceleration rather than by a fundamental acceleration across the African continent.

Citing International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections, the Financial Times reported that sub-Saharan Africa is expected to see growth increase from about 4.1 percent to roughly 4.4 percent, even as wars, insurgencies, and political instability persist in parts of the continent. At the same time, the IMF forecasts that Asia’s combined economies will slow to around 4.1 percent in 2026, reflecting weaker momentum in China, the region’s largest economy.

The paper attributed Africa’s relatively stable outlook to favorable external conditions, including a weaker US dollar, easing debt-servicing pressures and inflation, alongside strong commodity prices, particularly for gold and copper. By contrast, it noted that China, once the engine of near double-digit growth, can no longer sustain earlier expansion rates as its economy matures and its workforce ages. The FT recalled that decades of rapid growth transformed China from a $150 billion economy in 1978 into one approaching $20 trillion today, but argued that such "heady rates" are no longer feasible.

Growth without transformation

However, the analysis warned against interpreting the potential crossover as a revival of the early-2000s "Africa Rising" narrative. While Africa previously benefited from China’s commodity boom, the FT stressed that mounting debt, weak governance, conflict, and inadequate investment have since constrained progress. "Growth of 4 or 5 per cent is not much to brag about," the paper noted, pointing out that population growth absorbs a large share of headline expansion and leaves limited per-capita gains. Sustained growth of at least 7 percent, it argued, would be needed to replicate East Asia-style structural transformation.

The FT also stressed uneven performance across the continent. Countries such as Cote d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Senegal, Ghana, and Mauritius have recorded years of strong growth, while Nigeria and Egypt are expected to expand closer to the continental average and South Africa continues to lag.

Sahel coups and sovereignty claims

Separate reporting and regional analyses not cited by the FT point to another structural development shaping Africa’s political economy, particularly in the Sahel. Since 2020, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have undergone military-led political transitions that their new authorities present as decisive moves to reclaim national sovereignty and dismantle entrenched Western political, military, and economic control.

Following these coups, the three countries collectively withdrew from the Economic Community of West African States, rejected sanctions and external pressure, and moved to dismantle long-standing security arrangements with France and, in some cases, the United States. Western military forces have since been expelled or have withdrawn, marking a sharp retreat of Western-led counterterrorism architecture from the central Sahel.

The juntas have instead formed the Alliance of Sahel States, presenting it as a sovereign alternative to Western-backed regional frameworks. They have also diversified partnerships toward non-Western actors, including Russia and Turkey, in both security cooperation and economic engagement. Supporters of these shifts argue they represent a reclaiming of policy autonomy, while critics warn they risk deepening insecurity and isolating already fragile economies.

Parallel warnings

Separate analyses from other sources support the FT’s overall argument but stress similar reservations. According to IMF regional outlooks, sub-Saharan Africa’s growth resilience reflects macroeconomic stabilization and reforms in several countries, but per-capita income gains remain modest and vulnerabilities high due to limited fiscal space and heavy debt burdens. World Bank projections likewise suggest that African growth could firm through 2026-27, yet warn that current rates remain insufficient to drive large-scale poverty reduction or industrial takeoff.

On the Asian side, IMF Asia-Pacific assessments indicate that the regional slowdown is driven primarily by China’s structural deceleration, magnified by the region’s GDP-weighted averages, even as trade uncertainty and protectionist pressures add further downside risks.

Global stakes

The Financial Times concluded by situating Africa’s outlook within a global demographic context, noting that by 2050 more than one in four people worldwide will be African and that the continent will have a larger working-age population than China and India combined.

While the newspaper stopped short of predicting a breakthrough, it warned that failure to place Africa on a stronger growth trajectory would carry consequences far beyond the continent itself, a concern echoed in parallel assessments by international financial institutions and independent geopolitical analysts.