Global LNG Supply Crisis Looms as Gulf Shipments Near Final Delivery

By Al Mayadeen English

22 Mar 2026 16:32

Global energy markets brace for disruption as final Gulf LNG shipments arrive, following the Strait of Hormuz blockade and attacks on Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility.

The global energy market is approaching a critical inflection point as the last liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments from the Gulf near their destinations, marking an abrupt halt in one of the world’s most vital energy supply routes.

Carriers that departed the region before the beginning of the US-Israeli war on Iran are expected to arrive within the next 10 days. Once delivered, however, the flow of LNG from the Gulf will effectively cease due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic artery through which a significant share of global energy exports passes.

Qatar, responsible for roughly one-fifth of global LNG production, suspended exports in the early days of the confrontation, triggering immediate concerns over supply shortages and market instability.

Energy infrastructure targeted amid regional escalation

The disruption has been compounded by direct strikes on critical infrastructure, particularly Qatar’s Ras Laffan industrial complex, one of the largest LNG processing hubs in the world.

Missile attacks this week caused extensive damage to the facility, forcing a significant portion of its production capacity offline. The fallout has already reverberated across global markets, with LNG prices in both Asia and Europe surging sharply.

Even prior to the escalation, tankers from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates had already begun their journeys. According to shipping analysis, these shipments now represent the final buffer before the full impact of the supply shock is felt.

The longer-term outlook remains constrained, with officials warning that a substantial share of Qatar’s production capacity will remain offline for years.

Import-dependent nations face severe energy strain

Countries heavily reliant on LNG imports are among the hardest hit, with Pakistan emerging as one of the most vulnerable.

Nearly all of its LNG imports, approximately 99%, originated from Qatar last year. With its final cargoes already delivered in the early days of the war, the country now faces an imminent supply vacuum.

Both LNG import terminals have drastically scaled down operations and are expected to halt gas dispatch entirely by the end of the month. One terminal is already on the verge of running dry.

“After that we’ll run dry,” Iqbal Ahmed, Pakistan GasPort chair and chief executive, told the Financial Times. “We do not know when the next cargo will come in.”

Efforts to secure alternative supplies have failed, as offers from global suppliers came at prohibitively high prices. The country is now expected to revert to more polluting and costly fuel sources to sustain power generation.

“I see us having one very difficult year followed by two or three difficult years to follow,” Ahmed added.

Bangladesh and Taiwan brace for shortages

Bangladesh faces similar challenges, albeit with slightly more diversified supply options. Authorities have already implemented rationing measures, including institutional closures, to manage dwindling reserves.

Taiwan, a major LNG importer undergoing an energy transition, moved swiftly to secure replacement shipments. Officials confirmed that 22 cargoes had been arranged to stabilize supply through April. However, rising summer demand could expose vulnerabilities if disruptions persist.

Analysts warn of potential “severe energy shortages” under prolonged constraints, particularly if maritime routes remain inaccessible.

Major economies shift strategy as LNG prices surge

Larger economies are adjusting their strategies in response to tightening supply and escalating costs.

Asian benchmark LNG prices have doubled since the onset of the crisis, reaching approximately $23 per million British thermal units. Increased shipping distances and charter rates have further compounded costs.

Japan and China, two of the world’s largest LNG importers, are cautiously navigating the market. While both are expected to purchase limited spot cargoes, they are simultaneously preparing to increase reliance on coal and, in Japan’s case, nuclear energy.

Japan, less exposed to Gulf disruptions, is also advancing the restart of nuclear facilities to offset potential shortages.

Long-term disruptions threaten global energy stability

The immediate supply shock is expected to evolve into a prolonged structural disruption.

Qatar’s energy minister, Saad Al-Kaabi, previously stated that approximately 17% of the country’s LNG capacity could remain offline for three to five years due to damage at Ras Laffan.

“This means that we will be compelled to declare force majeure for up to five years on some long-term LNG contracts,” he said.

Until maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, global LNG markets are likely to remain constrained, with ripple effects across energy security, industrial output, and economic stability worldwide.