UN Warns Ebola Outbreak Could Cost Africa $3.6 Billion

By Al Mayadeen English

The UN warns the Ebola outbreak in Africa could cost up to $3.6 billion and destroy 328,000 jobs if it spreads across the region.

The ongoing Ebola outbreak could cost Africa up to $3.6 billion and lead to the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs, potentially triggering a wider development crisis across the continent, the United Nations has warned.

The warning comes as the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola continues to spread in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where 1,307 people have been infected, and 377 have died since the outbreak was declared on May 15, according to government figures. There is currently no tested vaccine or treatment for this strain.

A smaller number of cases have also been reported in Uganda, while health experts have raised concerns about the possibility of further regional spread, including to neighbouring countries such as South Sudan.

“If we have the resources and we step up, we can contain this outbreak and prevent further losses,” said Damien Mama, United Nations Development Programme resident representative in Congo. “If we do not, this health emergency risks becoming a much deeper and prolonged development crisis across the region and potentially the continent.”

The UNDP outlined multiple scenarios for the outbreak’s economic impact. In the most contained scenario, where the epidemic remains limited to Congo and Uganda, the cost could reach $1 billion in Congo’s GDP.

In a worst-case scenario, where the disease spreads further to countries including Rwanda and Angola and coincides with higher fuel costs linked to the US-Israeli war on Iran, continental GDP could fall by $3.6 billion, with an estimated 328,000 jobs lost, according to the report.

What Ebola is and how it spreads

Ebola is a severe and often fatal viral disease that causes hemorrhagic fever in humans. It is believed to originate in fruit bats and is transmitted to humans through zoonotic spillover, when the virus crosses from animals to people.

Once infected, Ebola spreads between humans through direct contact with bodily fluids, including blood, vomit, semen, and other secretions. Symptoms usually begin with fever, fatigue, muscle pain, and headaches before progressing to vomiting, diarrhea, rashes, and, in severe cases, internal and external bleeding.

Fatality rate and known strains

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), Ebola has an average fatality rate of around 50%, though some outbreaks have recorded significantly higher mortality levels. Since its identification in 1976, more than 40 outbreaks have been documented globally.

The current outbreak is the 17th recorded in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and is linked to the Bundibugyo strain of the virus. There are four known Ebola strains that can infect humans: Zaire, Sudan, Bundibugyo, and Tai Forest. The Bundibugyo strain is considered rare, with only two previous outbreaks recorded, in 2007 and 2012.

Why experts are concerned about the current outbreak

Health experts have raised concerns due to the lack of approved vaccines or targeted treatments for the Bundibugyo strain. Existing Ebola vaccines, including Ervebo used in previous outbreaks, are not effective against this variant.

“There are no Bundibugyo virus-specific therapeutics or vaccines,” said Dr. Simon Williams, an infectious disease expert at Swansea University, warning that Ebola remains “a nasty disease with a very high case fatality rate.”

Although Ebola is less contagious than diseases such as COVID-19 or measles, experts stress that it is significantly more deadly and can affect healthy individuals as well as vulnerable populations.

Containment efforts in eastern DRC are being complicated by ongoing armed conflict and militia activity, which continue to disrupt healthcare operations.

Professor Paul Hunter of the University of East Anglia noted that healthcare facilities have previously been targeted during Ebola responses, creating fear among communities and discouraging infected individuals from seeking treatment. He warned that this can increase transmission within households and local populations.

How the outbreak was detected

The outbreak is believed to have begun in April, but health authorities were not formally alerted until May 5, after information began circulating on social media.

The first known suspected patient, a 59-year-old man, developed symptoms on April 24 and died three days later. By the time the outbreak was officially identified, at least 50 people had already died, according to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC).

Public health experts warn that delays in identifying outbreaks can allow Ebola to spread undetected for weeks.

Dr. Jean Kaseya, director general of the Africa CDC, said delayed response can have “catastrophic consequences.” Meanwhile, Dr. Anne Cori, an infectious disease modelling expert at Imperial College London, noted that the number of suspected cases detected before official confirmation suggests significant spread had already occurred.

She added that late detection severely limits contact tracing efforts, particularly in conflict-affected areas with weak healthcare systems.