Iran Expecting Imminent Major US Assault

By Al Mayadeen English

18 Oct 2026 15:38

Iran is on full alert amid assessments of an imminent US attack, as experts warn of military escalation, regional instability and a global economic crisis.

Iran is on full alert and expects a major US assault, University of Tehran professor Mohammad Marandi said, warning that escalation would trigger a global economic depression and topple regional governments, while retired US Air Force Lieutenant Colonel Karen Kwiatkowski argued that Trump seeks a dramatic visual to claim victory and that US forces cannot protect their regional partners.

Speaking on Al Mayadeen's Iran and the World: The Grand Standoff, Marandi emphasized that Iranian officials and the public believe American forces are positioned for an attack. "I don't know if the Iranians have information that an attack is imminent," he stated, adding that Iranians "believe that the Americans are poised for an attack, they have positioned themselves for an assault on the country."

The armed forces are on full alert, and some schools on the coast have moved classes online, which he called a clear indication that Iran expects an assault based on the scale and disposition of deployed US forces.

Marandi noted that "I do not know if Iran has any insider information or whether it has any intelligence about an imminent attack," but Iranians are saying the Americans "have prepared themselves for a potential attack" and Iran has prepared for a major assault.

Dismissing Trump's statements

Addressing recent remarks made by Trump, Marandi argued that "nothing that Trump says is important. The only thing that is important is what the US armed forces does," noting that Trump "says one thing today, and he'll say the opposite tomorrow."

He added that "nothing that he says has any credibility whatsoever," citing the Islamabad MOU Trump signed and never implemented and talks with Iran before the 12 Day War that Trump later called fake. Posts on Truth Social are, in Marandi's words, "very rarely discussed anymore" in Iran.

Marandi maintained that an American attack on Iran would solve nothing, and would instead worsen the global economic crisis and the difficulties facing ordinary Americans. "Even if it's not a major assault, any form of assault on Iran, just continuing the current policy is going to make things worse. A major escalation will make it horrific," he noted.

Iranian decision-makers are baffled by Trump's intentions, Marandi emphasized, warning that no one should expect reason from a president "surrounded by Israeli forces" with no history of deciding on facts.

The consequences for the region will be severe, Marandi predicted, arguing that a major assault "would definitely lead to a global economic depression, and the downfall of regimes like Saudi Arabia and other tiny family regimes in the region, because they won't survive such an escalation."

On Iran's approach to the United States, he asserted that Iran has moved past expecting Washington to conform to logic, calling the Trump administration unlike any previous US presidency.

Neighbors as co-conspirators

Countries that assisted the United States in the war against Iran are, in Marandi's assessment, "co-conspirators" who "have helped kill Iranian children and Iranian citizens."

He pointed out that US aircraft refueling Israeli and US jets took off from these countries, and that they assisted Saddam Hussein in the war he imposed on Iran.

"Does anyone think Iran is going to look away and allow these countries which give the Americans rights to fly over their territory, which hosts US forces, which hosts, as we speak, tankers to refuel American and perhaps Israeli regime jets?" Marandi asked, should Washington launch another war.

Already fragile, he argued, these states face mounting pressure both from their conduct toward Iran and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, and from the war Mohammed bin Salman provoked against Yemen.

"If the United States carries out a major assault on Iran, these regimes would fall," Marandi warned, adding that continued US pressure would push them toward greater instability.

Strikes meant to deliver a visual win

Trump's talk of the "mother of all bombs" reflects a search for a dramatic image to end the war, Kwiatkowski said. The massive conventional bomb must be delivered by a C-130 aircraft that would be "highly vulnerable anywhere near Iran's airspace," she noted, yet Trump is suggesting it would provide the visual he needs.

In her account, Trump grasps that his actions only worsen the global economy without forcing Iran to submit, but he cannot simply admit error and end the war.

"He has already the seven points that they're considering, but certainly he's already signed the MOU from some months ago, which really would have ended the war," Kwiatkowski said. "So he's not the man that can do the right thing."

She cautioned that more strikes are likely, despite being counterproductive, because they would give Trump "the appearance of winning so that he can then end this thing." Like Marandi, the retired colonel described a president surrounded by Israel firsters guiding his thinking.

No ground forces have been deployed for an invasion, she noted, but the United States retains the ability to drop bombs, fire missiles and attack from the sea. "I think Trump would be willing to basically waste that capability to get some sort of excuse to say, I won and end the war," she said.

Kwiatkowski's assessment was that Iran had prepared over many years, protecting its missiles and air defense and studying how Americans fight in West Asia. "So they were prepared. America was not prepared."

Iran's military readiness

Recent assessments, she said, place Iran's defensive, ballistic missile and drone capabilities at or above their level four or five months ago, in some cases higher than before the February 28 attack by Israel and the United States.

Iran has pledged serious retaliation, and what remains of US allies' military facilities in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain would be hit, she warned, along with Jordan, and possibly "Israel" if it participates.

Pointing to Trump's refusal to help Saudi Arabia against the Yemeni Armed Forces, despite repeated requests, Kwiatkowski called the regional governments "already highly vulnerable." She questioned why Trump would attack at all, citing Iran's known strength and its record of keeping its word.

Strait of Hormuz and the oil picture

Kwiatkowski disputed claims that oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. "Our Navy in particular, cannot really operate anywhere near the strait," she said, noting US ships have been fired upon and have repeatedly moved away.

The loss of even a small American ship would be a severe blow to Trump, she argued, so the United States instead advises vessels to transit the western side with lights off and communications down, leaving them unprotected while mines take a toll.

She rejected that the quoted prices of $100 or $110 a barrel reflect the real scarcity of global energy or the damage to processed products, especially jet fuel and diesel. "The diesel fuel prices are so impossible in the United States right now," she said, noting Trump recently waived diesel tariffs against Russia.

It would take years to recover, she predicted, from damage to refineries, pumping stations, pipelines and supplies of aluminum, potash, fertilizer and helium. "I don't know who's telling Trump these lies about oil getting through, because that's just what they are," she said.

Iran's retaliation and public preparation

Iran's current escalation responds to Trump's escalation, Marandi said, recalling that Bessent declared "D-Day" with the intention of destroying the Iranian economy. Iran is hitting back at the United States and at regional oil exporters that assist it, he explained, and the number of ships struck rose substantially after President Hezbollah returned from New York, as Tehran had promised.

He noted Iran was already under maximum-pressure sanctions and a siege that he called an active war on ordinary Iranians.

A statement by the Assembly of Experts, Marandi said, is aimed at the Iranian public, reminding people of the situation so they are not surprised if the United States attacks overnight and so the country can function in wartime.

Diplomacy and military deterrence do not contradict each other, Marandi argued. "Diplomacy never ends. The Foreign Ministry has an obligation to continue to seek solutions while the military has an obligation to intimidate any potential aggression," he said.

He rejected the notion that talks weaken defense or that battlefield resolve neglects diplomacy. "Iran will continue to try to find a way to end this peacefully," he stated, but because Trump is not a rational actor and those around him do not share the American people's agenda, Iran must be ready for all-out war.

US politics and the midterms

Iran would like to see Trump lose the midterm elections, with a larger defeat strengthening Tehran's position, Marandi said.

He also noted a countervailing view inside Iran that a victory by Netanyahu's opponents could prove worse, because they would seek to rehabilitate the Israeli government and place all blame for the genocide on Netanyahu. Iran, he stressed, will not openly support any side in US elections and is not greatly concerned with the results, focusing instead on its own military and defense capabilities.

Kwiatkowski pointed to deep US divisions. "New York has always been hostile towards Trump," she said, while noting he retains a strong base in the heartland. She cautioned against overconfidence in polling, which she said has generally been biased against Trump, and said the Democratic Party "is not reflective of the popular views held by ordinary Americans," remaining pro-Israel despite an anti-war base.

Democratic gains would matter, she suggested, because the party is hostile to Trump and its base opposes the war, creating pressure to change course. But she doubted Congress could restrain a president who rules by executive order and no longer cares about popular support, focusing instead on legacy and enrichment.

The coalition that elected Trump twice had been betrayed, Kwiatkowski said. "He has betrayed that base, number one," she stated, adding that MAGA and America First "have really lost the spirit of Trump" because he has done the opposite of what he promised.

In her rural Republican county, she said, the party is "invisible" and cannot support a president who has economically harmed farmers, who now see him as a traitor to their interests. She also disputed Trump's claims about the Strait, saying he is "outright lying" and that no credible adviser would tell him otherwise.