Yale Report Identifies Ethiopia Supply Route to Sudan's RSF

By Al Mayadeen English

Source: Yale's Humanitarian Research Lab (HRL)

6 Nov 2026 19:27

Yale researchers' analysis traces military activity between Ethiopia and Sudan, identifying military and logistical activity at an Ethiopian base, RSF movements in Sudan's Blue Nile State, and drone strike damage in Al-Damazin.

A new report by the Humanitarian Research Lab (HRL) at Yale University's School of Public Health has identified satellite imagery showing logistical and military activity at an Ethiopian military base consistent with support for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and their allied groups operating in Sudan's Blue Nile State.

The report, released on November 5, 2026, documents construction, cargo transport, and the presence of military vehicles at the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) base in Asosa between September 11 and November 4. It also identifies RSF activity and road infrastructure improvements in the Sudanese border city of Kurmuk, alongside evidence of drone strikes in Al-Damazin, the state capital.

The findings come as the RSF and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) advance across Blue Nile State, with the report corroborating their capture of Sali from the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and identifying military activity along routes leading toward other strategic areas.

The report traces three interconnected elements of the conflict: logistical activity at the Asosa base in Ethiopia, the use of Kurmuk as a transport and military hub, and attacks targeting Al-Damazin as fighting moves closer to the state capital.

Asosa base: Cargo buildup and military vehicle preparations

Yale HRL identified continued construction and logistical activity at the ENDF base in Asosa between September 11 and November 4, including the accumulation of shipping containers, the movement of cargo trucks, and the construction of new infrastructure.

Satellite imagery showed a net increase of approximately 30 cargo containers at the base between September 11 and October 3, followed by at least 25 additional containers by October 30. On October 3, researchers identified 27 cargo vehicles, 22 of them loaded, that appeared to be preparing to leave the facility.

Further imagery from November 4 showed 11 cargo vehicles equipped with double-hitched trailers. The report also documented ongoing construction, including the installation of a green roof on a large building and the paving of two concrete platforms, one of which appeared to have fresh concrete poured on it.

The base also hosted a significant concentration of light military vehicles. Between October 8 and 30, approximately 44 mostly white light technical vehicles and around 10 predominantly dark-colored vehicles were visible on a large concrete parking area.

Yale HRL said it had assessed in previous reporting that these vehicles were likely being painted for deployment along the Blue Nile axis. Their continued presence, alongside the cargo movements and construction, was assessed as consistent with the provision of equipment and material support for RSF and allied operations in the region.

The report also documented military aircraft at Asosa Airport on October 30 and November 4, including an Ilyushin Il-76 transport aircraft appearing in different positions on both dates. Other aircraft identified in the earlier monitoring period included An-26 and DHC-6 models.

Ethiopia recently expelled Sudan's diplomatic mission from Asosa, a development that has raised further questions over access to and monitoring of activity in the border area.

Kurmuk: RSF consolidates control over strategic supply routes

The report identifies Kurmuk, a city in Sudan's southern Blue Nile State bordering Ethiopia, as a key logistical point connecting the two countries. The city lies approximately 85 kilometers north of Asosa and 140 kilometers south of Al-Damazin, placing it along a major route linking Ethiopian territory with Sudan's Blue Nile region.

According to Yale HRL, satellite imagery shows RSF presence and efforts to improve road infrastructure in Kurmuk, including the repair of the city's bridge between October 3 and 19. Researchers also identified road grading and the construction of additional routes leading toward the main bridge connecting Sudan and Ethiopia through the C40 highway.

A road grader was visible on a newly leveled road in imagery dated October 29, while more than 20 light technical vehicles consistent with RSF forces were identified in the city.

Among them was a convoy of 11 light technical vehicles, accompanied by a transport vehicle, moving along Kurmuk's main road. The colors of several vehicles were similar to those observed at the Asosa military base, according to the report.

Yale HRL said the combination of RSF presence, road construction, and military vehicle movements indicated that control of Kurmuk and its logistical routes was critical to establishing control over Blue Nile State.

The report also corroborated the RSF and SPLM-N's capture of Sali, a town located in a gold-mining area along the main road connecting Al-Damazin and Kurmuk.

Sali lies approximately 20 kilometers north of Kurmuk and 110 kilometers south of Al-Damazin. Yale HRL assessed that the SAF encampment there had been razed between October 29 and November 4, following reported RSF attacks on October 21 and November 2.

The RSF announced the capture of the town on November 3. Sudan War Monitor reported that the assault had been launched from both the south, from Kurmuk, and the west, from Sirkum.

Satellite imagery dated November 4 also showed military vehicles on the road leading from Sali toward Kali, northwest of the town. The report noted that Kali is another strategically significant location for control of the southern Blue Nile, with open-source accounts indicating that RSF forces had attacked the area and may have taken control of it.

RSF drone strikes damage civilian and military sites in Al-Damazin

Yale HRL also identified damage consistent with aerial munitions, including drone strikes, at civilian and military locations in Al-Damazin between October 29 and November 4.

The findings corroborate reports of multiple explosions caused by RSF drone attacks overnight on November 3 and into the early hours of November 4. However, the report noted that some explosions may also have resulted from SAF anti-aircraft activity.

In civilian areas, researchers identified at least six instances of munition impacts or conflict-related thermal damage. These included locations near markets, residential areas, and a mosque.

In the Al-Zuhur neighborhood, satellite imagery showed a munition impact outside a small market, thermal damage outside the walls of a mosque, and additional damage at a civilian site. Open-source reports also indicated that a woman was killed in drone strikes near the neighborhood.

The report further identified thermal damage outside Sabeen market, potentially consistent with the destruction of a vehicle, as well as damage to several structures and a munition impact in the Aliya neighborhood.

Military installations were also affected. Yale HRL identified damage consistent with aerial munitions at three military sites, including two impacts on the roof of a structure near Al-Damazin airport.

The report also documented damage at the SAF 44th Artillery Division, where open-source accounts said drone strikes had hit barracks and killed at least one man. Satellite imagery further showed the destruction of a structure on the perimeter of the SAF 4th Infantry Division base, corroborating reports that the facility had been struck.

Local reports said authorities aligned with the SAF had cut electricity across Al-Damazin during the drone attacks as a precautionary measure.

Displacement and fuel shortages deepen humanitarian crisis

Beyond the military developments, the Yale report documented worsening humanitarian conditions in Al-Damazin, where displacement and shortages are placing additional pressure on civilians.

Satellite imagery showed an increase of more than 800 temporary shelters at an internally displaced persons (IDP) camp in the city between October 3 and November 4.

According to figures from the International Organization for Migration's Displacement Tracking Matrix, more than 45,000 internally displaced people were present in Al-Damazin locality as of October 15.

The report added that nearly 120,000 people had fled the localities of Geisan, Kurmuk, Baw, and Wad Al-Mahi between January 11 and October 15. More than 20,000 additional displaced people had been recorded in less than two months.

Yale HRL also identified long queues at seven fuel stations in Al-Damazin in satellite imagery dated November 4. Some queues included animal-drawn carts and people on foot, with similar scenes absent from imagery of six of the seven locations over the preceding year.

The queues emerged amid a nationwide fuel and inflation crisis and the shutdown of the electricity system in Al-Damazin by the SAF-aligned government the previous morning.

The report also cited accounts of bakeries closing because they could no longer afford production costs, forcing residents to adjust their daily lives amid food shortages.

Separately, open-source reports documented multiple arrests in Al-Damazin and nearby Roceris, including raids and the re-arrest of family members of individuals fighting alongside the RSF. The reported arrests involved members of the armed forces, police, and the General Intelligence Service.

Yale report traces interconnected military and logistical activity

The report's findings are based on the cross-analysis of satellite imagery, thermal data, social media material, local media reporting, and other publicly available information. Yale HRL said its researchers compared images of the same locations taken at different times to identify changes in infrastructure, vehicle movements, and signs of conflict-related damage.

The laboratory cautioned that its assessments are subject to limitations, including gaps in available satellite imagery, restricted image resolution, and the uneven availability of open-source information from Sudan. It also noted that some forms of violence and damage cannot be fully assessed without additional ground-level evidence.

The latest findings build on previous Yale HRL reports documenting logistical activity and military preparations in Ethiopia associated with RSF operations in Blue Nile State. Earlier reporting has also pointed to an alleged Emirati role in financing and equipping logistical infrastructure inside Ethiopia to support the RSF.

Taken together, the satellite imagery presented in the latest report provides evidence of military and logistical activity across the Ethiopian border and strategic locations in Sudan, as the RSF and its allies expand their operations in Blue Nile State.