RSF Advances in Sudan May Trigger Refugee Surge, UNHCR Warns

By Al Mayadeen English

9 Dec 2025

The UN has warned that Sudan's aid is at risk as funding covers only 42% of its response.

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have made significant territorial advances amid the ongoing Sudan conflict, raising fears of a fresh wave of displacement, the head of the UN refugee agency warned.

Filippo Grandi, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, said the RSF’s recent takeover of the city of al-Fashir in Darfur and continued expansion east into the Kordofan region could escalate the Sudan crisis, particularly if violence spreads to major cities.

This month, RSF fighters also seized control of Sudan’s largest oil field.

“If that were to be – not necessarily taken – but engulfed by the war, I am pretty sure we would see more exodus,” Grandi told Reuters from Port Sudan.

Strategic cities, oil fields captured

The RSF’s control of El Fashir marked one of the group’s largest victories in the nearly three-year conflict with the Sudanese army. Fighting has since intensified in the Kordofan region, which comprises three states in central and southern Sudan.

Grandi emphasized that while most of the estimated 40,000 newly displaced people in Kordofan have remained within the country, this could change if violence spreads to urban centers like El Obeid.

“We have to remain...very alert in neighbouring countries in case this happens,” he said.

Refugee crisis deepens

Since the outbreak of the Sudan conflict, nearly 12 million people have been forced from their homes. Of those, over 4.3 million have fled Sudan entirely, mostly to Chad, South Sudan, and other neighboring countries, creating the largest displacement crisis in the world.

Some displaced people have returned to Khartoum, which is now under Sudanese army control.

Grandi warned that humanitarian organizations are struggling to respond to the mounting crisis, citing a severely underfunded Sudan response plan. He noted that many Sudanese refugees arriving at the borders have suffered rape, robbery, and the loss of family members.

“We are barely responding,” Grandi said, referring to the limited aid available.

The UNHCR also lacks the resources to relocate refugees away from volatile areas along the Chad-Sudan border.

The UN Population Fund (UNFPA) stated on Tuesday that the body's humanitarian response in Sudan is severely underfunded, adding that essential services for women and girls can't be sustained without an increase in aid.

"In 2025, only 42% of UNFPA’s humanitarian response was funded," Fabrizia Falcione, UNFPA's country representative in Sudan, told reporters in Geneva online. "That means, safe spaces are shuttered, supplies are cut, and support to reproductive health care is stopped."

The UNFPA is asking for $116 million for 2026 in order to keep maternal health care, reproductive services, and protection programs operational. Falcione states that the international leaders need to act immediately "to prevent further atrocities."

Falcione said that the civil war continues to put millions in danger, stating, "The war is an assault on the rights, health, and dignity of women and girls, with 12.1 million people at risk of gender-based violence."

Survivors describe violence, family separation

During a recent visit to the Al Dabba camp on the Nile, north of Khartoum, Grandi met with Sudanese refugees, most of whom are women and children. Many had fled on foot from El Fashir and Kordofan, walking hundreds of kilometers.

Survivors shared harrowing stories of families torn apart. Some women said their sons were either killed or forcibly conscripted. Others revealed they disguised their boys as girls to prevent their abduction by fighters.

“Even fleeing is difficult because people are continuously stopped by the militias,” Grandi added.

US sanctions network fueling conflict

On Tuesday, the US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on four individuals and four entities it claimed are part of a network recruiting fighters, including children, to be deployed to Sudan.

The US government agency stated that the network, mostly made up of Colombian nationals and companies, "recruits former Colombian military personnel and trains soldiers, including children," in order to fight for the RSF paramilitary.

"The RSF has shown again and again that it is willing to target civilians—including infants and young children. Its brutality has deepened the conflict and destabilized the region, creating the conditions for terrorist groups to grow," said Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence John Hurley.