Yale Warns of Imminent RSF Attack on Ed Damazine Amid Ethiopia Buildup

By Al Mayadeen English

Source: News websites

30 Aug 2026 17:48

Yale's Humanitarian Research Lab warns of an elevated risk of an RSF attack on Ed Damazine after detecting a major military buildup in Ethiopia.

A humanitarian research laboratory at Yale University has warned of an elevated risk of a major and imminent attack by Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on Ed Damazine, the capital of Blue Nile State, following the observation of a large military buildup at a base in neighboring Ethiopia.

The Yale Humanitarian Research Lab, part of the university's School of Public Health, said in its report dated August 28 that satellite imagery showed a significant increase in activity and equipment at the base in Assossa, Ethiopia, near the border with Sudan, between August 23 and August 28. The lab's analysts observed approximately 100 newly arrived light combat vehicles distributed across three groups, representing roughly six times the number present at the base on August 23.

The imagery also showed preparations to mount weapons on several vehicles, including at least five vehicles likely equipped with weapons, alongside a group of about 15 vehicles whose characteristics suggest they are armored personnel carriers. The lab additionally documented the arrival of at least five vehicle carriers and 14 trailers for transporting machinery, estimating that the new vehicles at Assossa are capable of transporting a force of between 750 and 1,000 personnel, equivalent to a regiment-sized or brigade-sized unit.

Satellite imagery reveals expanded Iifrastructure, supplies

Beyond combat vehicles, the Yale report documented the appearance of at least 60 new shipping containers between June 29 and August 23, followed by the observation of no fewer than 15 additional containers and eight cargo trucks between August 23 and August 28. Satellite images also showed the completion of a roof on a facility measuring approximately 70 meters in length and 17 meters in width, which the lab assessed was likely a vehicle storage hangar, with construction work having been ongoing since late June.

In its humanitarian security assessment, the lab concluded that "the increase in supplies of equipment and vehicles" at the Assossa base raises the risk of a major and imminent RSF attack on Ed Damazine. The lab warned of the potential for civilian casualties and new waves of displacement, including cross-border displacement into Ethiopia if fighting expands.

The Yale lab further assessed that an escalation of operations in Blue Nile may be part of an attempt to disperse Sudanese army forces and draw units away from North Kordofan, while simultaneously increasing the risk of simultaneous fighting around El Obeid and other areas of that state. Consequently, the lab classified the level of risk to civilians as "high" in both Blue Nile and North Kordofan.

Fighting escalates in Blue Nile as RSF claims gains

The warning follows an escalation of confrontations in Blue Nile State in recent weeks. The Rapid Support Forces said on August 28 that they had seized two army bases in Bakuri and Sirkam, including the headquarters of the 13th Infantry Brigade of the 4th Division in Bakuri, approximately 170 kilometers southeast of Ed Damazine.

The lab had previously documented damage related to fighting in Kurmuk and Sali, including damage to Kurmuk hospital and the A40 road bridge, as well as indicators of looting around the Kurmuk municipal building.

The report noted that this is not the first time the Yale lab has focused on the Assossa base, having concluded with high confidence on April 8 that activity at the base was "consistent with the provision of military assistance" to the RSF, and later stated in a June report that activity consistent with supporting those forces continued in subsequent months.

Reuters reveal RSF-linked training camp in Ethiopia

A Reuters investigation in February, citing sources, documents, and satellite imagery, revealed the existence of a training camp in Ethiopia's Benishangul-Gumuz region near the Sudanese border housing thousands of fighters linked to the RSF.

The Ethiopian government and the RSF did not comment on the details of that investigation at the time, while the United Arab Emirates denied allegations related to supporting the war. On later occasions, Ethiopia denied Sudanese allegations of involvement in attacks on Sudan, describing them as "baseless."

The Yale lab explained that its analysis relies on integrating satellite imagery, remote sensing, and open-source information, comparing images of the same location taken at different times to detect changes in the number of vehicles, structures, and equipment. The lab also noted limitations to its methodology, particularly the limited availability and resolution of imagery, and the difficulty of verifying some activities and casualties through remote sensing alone.