Ghana Central Bank Expected to Cut Rates Again

By News Ghana 

September 10, 2025

Ghana’s Monetary Policy Committee faces growing pressure to deliver another significant interest rate reduction at its September meeting, as inflation continues declining and market analysts project a 300 basis point cut to 22% from the current 25%.

IC Research, a leading market intelligence firm, argues that the current nominal policy rate of 25% translates to an ex-post real rate of 13.5%, which could widen to 15.4% by September without intervention. This elevated real rate provides substantial room for monetary easing.

The Bank of Ghana currently maintains its benchmark rate at 25%, following a 300 basis point reduction in July that marked the beginning of the central bank’s easing cycle after years of aggressive tightening to combat inflation.

Inflation dropped to 11.5% in August 2025, reaching its lowest level since October 2021 and falling below the authorities’ end-2025 target of 11.9%. The sustained disinflation provides central bankers with increased flexibility to support economic growth through lower borrowing costs.

IC Research forecasts continued price moderation in September, supported by favorable base effects and ongoing transport fare deflation. The firm anticipates a fourth consecutive month of annual transport fare declines following the 15% fare reduction implemented in May 2025.

Food prices are expected to remain subdued due to the resumption of industrial fishing activities and ongoing crop harvests, both contributing to sustained agricultural disinflation throughout the remainder of 2025.

The research firm projects overall consumer price inflation of 9.6% year-to-date by September 2025, representing a 190 basis point decline despite an estimated month-on-month acceleration to 1.0%. This modest uptick compares favorably to the surge experienced in September 2024.

The anticipated rate cut would represent another milestone in Ghana’s monetary easing cycle, aimed at balancing growth support with price stability consolidation. Central bank officials have emphasized their commitment to data-driven policy decisions based on inflation trends and economic conditions.

Ghana’s economic recovery has gained momentum following the successful completion of its debt restructuring program and restoration of international market access. Lower interest rates could further support private sector investment and consumer spending.

The MPC’s decision will be closely watched by investors and businesses seeking clarity on the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory through the remainder of 2025 and into 2026.