The ENDF’s Tactical Halt Outside of Tigray Is Actually Highly Strategic

December 25, 2021

Ethiopian forces marching to the north in December 2020 after TPLF attacked Northern Command of ENDF (Photo: file/FDEDF)

By Andrew Korybko

Follow him on Twitter : @AKorybko

The ENDF’s successful completion of its “National Unity in Diversity” operation has resulted in the armed forces deciding to remain outside of the Tigray Region for the time being. Although many observers consider this to have been done for tactical reasons, it’s actually highly strategic. Government Communication Service Minister Legesse Tulu said that the authorities learned about a false flag “genocide” plot by the TPLF and its international allies to implicate the ENDF in war crimes. 

According to the information that was revealed, they’ve already transported a large number of their terrorists who were killed during the government’s liberation counteroffensive in the Afar and Amhara Regions to mass graves in their home region. Upon the ENDF’s entrance into Tigray, the TPLF plans to accuse it of “genocide” there and has coordinated this information warfare provocation with foreign media who’ve already agreed to dutifully play along. 

By wisely avoiding this trap, the ENDF ensures that it’ll fail. There will be no revival of the regularly debunked “genocide” claims, including through false flag plots. This throws a wrench in the US-led West’s to artificially manufacture another pretext for justifying the next phase of their preplanned pressure campaign against Ethiopia. By denying them this, any forthcoming moves in that direction will be even less credible than all their prior ones, which further erodes the US-led West’s reputation. 

The ENDF won’t just be sitting around, however, since they’re hard at work helping the liberated regions recover from the TPLF’s occupation. All sorts of war crimes were committed during this time and entire communities were devastated by these atrocities. The authorities will help the victims while also exposing the extent of the TPLF’s terrorism there. Coupled with their foiling of the US-led West’s information warfare provocation, this will serve to decisively reshape global perceptions of the conflict.

There’s another strategic element to the ENDF’s tactical halt outside of Tigray, and that’s the government’s planned national dialogue with all peaceful forces in the country. To be clear, this doesn’t concern terrorist groups like the TPLF and its allies, who are unable to participate in this process. They’ve proven that they’re threats to peace, have committed war crimes, and thus aren’t legitimate stakeholders in the country’s future. 

These strategic dynamics are putting immense pressure on the TPLF. They’re contained to Tigray, whose residents will now have to hold them accountable for the disastrous war that was waged in their name. The terrorist group has eschewed responsibility for the conflict and all of its consequences, but their crushing defeat on the battlefield and the ENDF’s tactical halt outside of their home region means that the TPLF has to answer to the locals and finally provide for their most basic humanitarian needs.

Up until this point, the group has weaponized international aid shipments and even stolen many of the UN trucks that were used to deliver supplies. This was done to manipulate the international media into claiming that the ENDF was deliberately starving the residents of that region. That false information warfare narrative now has no basis whatsoever upon which to be advanced. In fact, it’s becoming abundantly clear that the aforementioned activities are yet another of the TPLF’s many war crimes. 

The best-case scenario would be for the TPLF to disarm, demobilize, hand over those of its members who committed war crimes so that they can face the justice that they deserve, and seek to reintegrate the rest of their members into their local society with time. That, however, is unlikely to happen since the TPLF’s agenda is to destroy Ethiopia with the full support of their international patrons if they can’t return to power. 

Nevertheless, a window of opportunity is opening – however narrow it might be – for Tigrayans to peacefully resist the terrorist group that committed all sorts of atrocities in their name. It’s predicted that the region’s humanitarian pressures might further intensify since the TPLF is incapable of effective governance and has a track record of weaponizing aid shipments. This might seek to motivate responsible residents to demand accountability and even possibly push back against the group. 

As was earlier mentioned, Ethiopia’s planned national dialogue is open to all peaceful members of society, especially those Tigrayans that never joined the TPLF nor supported its terrorist war against their diverse compatriots in the neighboring Afar and Amahra Regions. The Tigrayan people are also victims of the TPLF, including due to the group’s brainwashing that misled some of them, which observers should always keep in mind.

The participation of peaceful Tigrayans in the planned national dialogue won’t just be “token” like the TPLF’s foreign media allies will predictably claim, but substantive for the exact same reason that was mentioned above. This will also show how sincere the authorities are about the processes’ inclusivity, which in turn is yet another nail in the coffin of the US-led West’s information warfare against them. More and more, Ethiopia is exposing the US-led West’s many falsehoods. 

To recap, the ENDF’s tactical halt serves the strategic goals of evading the TPLF’s false flag “genocide” trap in Tigray; prompting that region’s residents to hold the terrorist group accountable; enabling the authorities to focus on helping the liberated regions recover from the terrorists’ occupation; and facilitating the planned national dialogue that will also include peaceful Tigrayans. All of this further discredits the TPLF and their allies, which in turn enhances Ethiopia’s international credibility.