Ceasefire and Security Guarantees: Key Points on Peace Plans for Ukraine

The most recent initiative came from Indonesia

MOSCOW, June 5. /TASS/. Russia considers all incoming proposals on the settlement of the situation in Ukraine, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko said, adding that Moscow welcomes settlement efforts from all countries.

The most recent initiative came from Indonesia (although Moscow has not received the details yet). Just like in the Chinese plan, it calls for an immediate ceasefire, which led to the plan being completely rejected by Kiev. Ukraine is only ready to discuss those initiatives spearheaded by President Vladimir Zelensky. Meanwhile, Russia considers these to be ridiculous and insists that the accession of the four new regions to Russia is not up for discussion.

Here are the key points about different peace plans for Ukraine.

‘Korean’ scenario

The plan proposed by Indonesia in early June is similar to the principles of the settlement on the Korean Peninsula after the war between the North and the South in the 1950s: immediate ceasefire by both sides, withdrawal of both Ukrainian and Russian forces 15 km away from their current positions and the establishment of a demilitarized zone (DMZ).

In addition, the initiative would mean stationing UN peacekeepers in the DMZ, as well as holding UN-supervised referendums, in order to "objectively confirm the will of the majority." Meanwhile, the plan does not specify what territories are in question.

Indonesia stated its readiness to take part in all processes and to send its military as part of the peacekeeping mission. Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto is certain that the effectiveness of such measures has been proven by the Korean experience.

China’s 12 points

In February, China published its own 12-point peace plan. Beijing called for de-escalation, a ceasefire and end of hostilities, as well as peace talks. China underscored that the security concerns of all sides must be taken into account; meanwhile, one must not try to ensure regional peace by expanding military blocs.

The Chinese peace plan provides for resolving the humanitarian crisis, exchanging captives, and ensuring food exports via the grain corridor.

China called to prevent the development and use of biological and chemical weapons, to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons and to avoid a nuclear crisis. According to Beijing, it is time to stop imposing unilateral sanctions not approved by the UN Security Council, and to counter efforts to weaponize the global economy. China is also ready to aid in the post-war rebuilding of the conflict zone in Ukraine.

Initiatives of Brazil, France and the Vatican

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva also calls for negotiations: in his view, it is necessary to establish a new international format with participation of countries that are ready to act as mediators in Moscow and Kiev and are not involved in the conflict. Lula da Silva called for a UN Summit with participation from both Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Vladimir Zelensky. Although the details of Brazil's plan are unknown, Moscow, according to da Silva, must be presented with some "minimal preconditions."

French President Emmanuel Macron also wanted to develop his own plan together with China, according to Bloomberg. However, so far, the French leader has only proposed that Zelensky hold a summit dedicated to the conflict in Paris. He called to provide Ukraine with reliable security guarantees - a call also supported by Germany. Denmark and Sweden stated their readiness to provide a platform for the alliance.

The Vatican also proposed a peace mission and mediation efforts. Pope Francis stated his readiness to visit Kiev and Moscow. Right now, the Holy See’s peace mission is currently led by President of the Italian Episcopal Conference Matteo Zuppi. However, the terms and preconditions of the mission are unknown - the pontiff noted that the initiative is not public, although its goal is to achieve a ceasefire.

African states’ peace mission

In mid-May, South Africa announced that African states are working to convince Russia and Ukraine to begin peace talks. The African initiative does not comprise a single plan - instead, it includes a number of ideas from other plans, such as, for example, a ceasefire and turning the UN into the main settlement platform. African states are also interested in reintroducing a number of Russian banks to the SWIFT payment system.

Currently, the states are negotiating the terms and timing of their delegation’s visit to Moscow and Kiev. The meetings will be held in late June - early July.

Russia’s position

Russia’s position was outlined during the talks in Belarus, and later during talks in Turkey in February-April, 2022; it includes Ukraine’s neutral, non-bloc status, cemented in its constitution, as well as Ukraine’s refusal to have its own nuclear arsenal. Russia demands the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, resolution of the language issue, as well as recognition of the independence of DPR and LPR, and recognition of Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea and Sevastopol. By late April, however, the talks stalled: Ukraine did not respond to Russia’s project with clearly formulated peace agreement language.

Meanwhile, Russia repeatedly noted that it welcomes efforts of all states, aimed at peaceful resolution of the Ukrainian crisis, but it expects specific proposals - including from Indonesia, the Vatican and South Africa. Moscow also underscored that no peace plan can exist, if it does not include the accession of the four new regions to Russia.

However, Putin pointed out that China’s plan can be considered as the basis for the peace treaty, when the West and Kiev become ready for it.

Zelensky’s ’10 steps’

Meanwhile, Zelensky proposed his own "peace plan," which Ukraine considers the only possible long-term solution, in November, 2022. It includes 10 points.

According to Zelensky, Russia must withdraw its forces from Ukraine, "restore Ukraine’s territorial integrity," and exchange POWs under the "all for all" formula. Kiev must be provided with military, nuclear, food, biological and energy security through international mechanisms. In addition, Ukraine wants all damage caused by the hostilities to be paid for by Russia.

According to Kiev, the "time for mediators" - China, Brazil, the Vatican - is "over," while the Indonesian initiative "will only buy time for Russia." Ukraine is ready to discuss Africa’s proposals - but has no intention to freeze the conflict.