F-16 Fighter Jets Deployment ‘Could Escalate Ukraine Crisis’

Russia could take action to respond; hopes for peace further dampened: expert

By Yang Sheng

Aug 06, 2024 12:06 AM

A Ukrainian military member stands next to the first General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcon sent to Ukraine on August 4, 2024. Ukrainian pilots have started flying the US-made F-16 fighter jets for operations. Photo: VCG

Ukraine has received the US-made F-16 fighter jets that had long been on its wish list, which may provide Kiev with more strength to deter the Russian air force, but analysts said the F-16 alone will not reverse the situation in the battlefield. Military analysts also pointed out Russia has the capability of responding to the F-16 deployment, and this military aid is very likely to further escalate the Russia-Ukraine conflict, dampening already dim hopes of peace. 

Ukrainian pilots also need more time to become more skilled at flying the US-made fighter jets, so the F-16s will be mainly used in defending against air strikes from Russia around Kiev, said experts. The logistics system is not very mature at the moment and Russia will make great efforts to strike it, so it's a question of to what extent the fighter jets can change the landscape in the battlefield, they added. 

Ukrainian pilots have started flying F-16 fighter jets for operations within the country, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday, confirming the long-awaited arrival of the US-made fighter jets more than 29 months after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Reuters reported on Monday.

Russia has warned that F-16s, just like any other Western weapons provided to Kiev, will not change the outcome of the conflict and will only prolong it. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said earlier that there is no "magic pill" for Kiev and that it will not have this "panacea" for long, RT reported on Sunday. 

"If I'm not mistaken, rewards [for Russian forces to shoot them down] have already been offered," Peskov said, according to Reuters. 

Built by Lockheed Martin, the F-16s had been on Ukraine's wish list for a long time because of their destructive power and global availability. They are equipped with a 20mm cannon and can carry bombs, rockets and missiles, according to Reuters.

Wei Dongxu, a Beijing-based military expert and media commentator, told the Global Times on Monday that these F-16s will be used mainly in three kinds of missions: first, to protect key locations from Russian air strikes and fight Russian fighters to achieve air dominance in strategically important cities like Kiev; second, to hunt Russian military aircraft within Ukraine's airspace; and third, to provide air support to Ukrainian ground forces.   

The very fact that Ukraine exploiting F-16 fighter jets, which are capable of carrying nuclear weapons, will be viewed by Russia as a Western threat in the nuclear sphere, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview, TASS reported on July 13. 

Wei said that Ukrainian pilots have yet to master flying these fighter jets, so they won't use them to conduct difficult missions. Russia also has advanced fighter jets that can compete with F-16s, and is also capable of spotting the airbase where the F-16s are being deployed, so if those F-16s are shot down or damaged, it will be a challenge for Ukraine and the West to maintain effective and efficient supplies of this weapon, said the expert.

Hopes of peace fading

If the F-16s are used to attack targets within Russia and cause significant losses and casualties, it would very likely lead to a terrible escalation, said a Beijing-based military expert who asked for anonymity.

The US decision-makers are once again putting their own political interests ahead of a peaceful solution to the Ukraine crisis, said experts. 

Ukrainian government has not realized that what the West wants is not Ukraine's victory, but the prolongation of its conflict with Russia, experts said.  

Amid positive signs of peace, including a visit to China by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's peace missions to Kiev, Moscow, Beijing and Washington, the US' new supply of F-16s has dampened the hopes of peace and increased the risk of further escalation, they said.