Countering Western Hybrid Warfare on Ethiopia

November 20, 2021   

BY KFLEEYESUS ABEBE

It is no secret! No more hidden! It is now visible to the naked eye. If you connect the dots and try to understand what is really happening in Ethiopia, you will certainly find a textbook example of hybrid warfare. As Russian political analyst Bob Seely suggests the first thing that must be done in countering hybrid warfare is to “accept what is happening rather than pretend it is not happening.” Of course, some experts have already tried to expose this western plot against Ethiopia. Professor Alemayehu Gebremariam aka Almariam and Andrew Korybko who are law experts and political analysts respectively have written long articles revealing the wicked plans of western powers. They examined the causes of this western pressure, the various methods they employed, its effects on the ground, and what they intended to achieve in the end.

In his article entitled ‘Analyzing the American Hybrid War on Ethiopia,’ Andrew Korybko said this hybrid warfare began “since it [Ethiopia] commenced a military operation in its northern Tigray Region last November.” But the interest was first observed during the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam negotiation. The United States showed a partisan stance on the course of discussion among actors. It unexpectedly wants to turn itself from an observer of the negotiation to a mediator or in fact arbitrator.

At the start of the war in the Tigray region of Ethiopia, the western powers seem to have go grounds for influencing the country though. They first employed their Media as a tool for this evil cause. Much of western media began to build a wrong narrative that Ethiopia all of the sudden wage war on its part, the Tigray region. In reality and finally proved that TPLF was the provocateur of the war attacking northern command of a national military base on the night of Nov. 3rd. Their fake news but persisted saying Ethiopia blocked humanitarian assistance and with a smear campaign against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. These media have now reached in collaborating with the terrorist group to create confusion and hysteria in the capital. They reported the capital is under siege where the front is more than 300 kilometers away. It went also far giving media coverage for fake parties to establish a front as everything in Addis is over.

What was going hand in hand with propaganda warfare was the unreasonable diplomatic pressure. Ethiopia has to stand on the stage of the UN and explain the construction of dam and law and order operation inside its territory. As Ambassador Taye Atskeselassie said, no other country has ever been testified on its internal affairs but Ethiopia had to.

The list of intervention and hybrid warfare technique western powers using over Ethiopia goes on. The United States imposed restrictions on economic and security assistance provided to Ethiopia over fighting in Tigray. The visa restriction targeted to Ethiopian officials though it said “those thoughts responsible for the crisis.”

The Biden administration also suspended Ethiopia’s trade privileges from the Africa Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA). The rationale given for this action is to help resolve the Ethiopian conflict but Assistant Professor of Applied Economics at Oregon University, Kassahun Melese says the action rather exacerbates the situation at hand.

It would weaken government capacity and open doors for “armed groups such as the deeply unpopular TPLF.” He went on saying such actions “can lead the collapse of the government and the collapse of the government can lead to genocide, the disintegration of the country, and mass migration.” But it is now hard to say this isn’t the intention of western powers as they have contributed to the fall of Syria, Libya, and others.

The western powers must have also been involved in the conflict by providing materials and classified information. The terrorist organization, TPLF confirmed in the leaked audio circulated on 26 October 2021 that they have been getting satellite support in video and audio from an international organization providing humanitarian services in Ethiopia.

This leaked audio disclosed that they are getting military support to identify the movement of the Ethiopian military inside the country. The support includes SAT PHONES, RADIOS, GPS Locator, satellite imagery, earth observation, and geographic information so that the rebels could have a better position to carry out terrorist activities. UNHCR, WHO, WFP, OCHA, UNICEF, and USAID are suspected of executing this activity. The Secretary-General has an obligation to initiate an independent investigation into UN agencies’ emergency response to the crisis in Tigray. Lives are at stake and the reputation of the UN is on the line.

In addition to these political warfare, irregular warfare, and cyber warfare methods, there is also evidence that foreign mercenaries have actually been involved in the war. Briefing his cabinet, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed exposed that foreign mercenaries fought alongside TPLF. “In Wollo front, non-Ethiopian forces have participated. Soldiers who don’t have Ethiopian nationality or origin have participated in the war and were killed. Ethiopians should be determined to destroy not only the traitors but also their bosses.”

As this is the case and there is a tangible evidence for Western specifically American hybrid war is really happening in Ethiopia, it is also important to remember American and Ethiopian age long and multifaceted relation. Beginning from Peace Corps to anti-terrorism cooperation, Ethiopia and America have built a positive relation.

Therefore, it would be mindful and politically correct to suspect recent confusing actions might have been caused by some individuals in the US administration that used to have links and share benefits with the terrorist group, TPLF. Accordingly, the diaspora and Ethiopian embassies should shoulder the duty of exposing TPLF lobbyists and help the US government see the truth on the ground.

They should sustain current rallies and other ways of influencing and inform the US government that its current decisions are uninformed and need to alter. There are some political figures like senator Jim Inhofe and senator Chris Coons who have shown better understanding can help the Biden administration to halt from its drastic actions.

The good news is Ethiopia isn’t the first victim of hybrid warfare and there is a way to defend and triumph over hybrid warfare. Andrew Korybko exemplifies Pakistan over its success on American hybrid and urges Ethiopian officials to proactively engage with Pakistan to draw lessons. As for him, Ethiopians should build strong relations with South-south cooperation (incorporate Chinese, Turkish, and Azerbaijani dimensions) and can source military and other support.

Though it is unwanted and damaging, this pressure has a blessing in disguise as Ethiopians are currently united on the same front. It has made every Ethiopian to stand in unison to defend his country from the terrorist TPLF attack as well as foreign hybrid warfare. Ethiopians also ignited a #Nomore pan African movement in the meantime. So, victory as forefathers in Adwa is imminent!

The Ethiopian Herald November 20/2021