Lawmakers Toppled the French Government. What Happens Now?
With the success of a motion of no confidence against Prime Minister Michel Barnier's government, the period of political uncertainty is set to intensify.
By Romain Geoffroy, Romain Imbach and Assma Maad
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On Wednesday, December 4, French Prime Minister Michel Barnier entered into the history of the Fifth Republic. He became the first head of government to be toppled by a vote of no confidence after having triggered Article 49.3 of the Constitution to force a bill through Parliament without a vote.
This could plunge the country into a new period of political uncertainty, paving the way to other unprecedented developments, given the particular context. Risks of deadlock, potential solutions, the future of the budget... Here's an overview of the main questions raised by the political crisis.
Is the prime minister forced to resign when a motion of no confidence is passed?
According to Article 50 of the Constitution, when the Assemblée Nationale adopts a motion of no confidence, the prime minister "must" tender his resignation to the president. "There is no ambiguity about the fact that the government immediately resigns" if such a motion is passed, said Constitution specialist Julien Boudon, a professor of public law at Paris-Saclay University. Stéphanie Damarey, a professor of public law at the University of Lille, agreed with him: "No deadline has been set, but it would be hard to understand why the resignation should not be presented to the president immediately."
What would become of the bills tabled by the Barnier government?
According to several law experts interviewed by Le Monde, with the government toppled, all the texts currently under discussion are immediately buried. This includes the budgetary texts under discussion in Parliament, and, the most emblematic of all, the budget bill for 2025.
Mathieu Carpentier, a professor of public law at Toulouse-Capitole University, disagrees. According to him, "nothing in our recent parliamentary history justifies maintaining that the overthrow of the government renders its texts null and void." The only successful motion of no confidence, passed in October 1962 against Prime Minister Georges Pompidou's government, was followed by a dissolution of the Assemblée Nationale, "which rendered all pending texts null and void," continued the law expert. But the situation is different today, as the president cannot call for legislative elections before July 2025 at the earliest.
Is there a risk of a government shutdown?
With the government censured, the chances of Parliament adopting a budget for 2025 are remote. Deadlines are too tight for a new draft prepared by the next government to be examined by the Assemblée Nationale and the Sénat before December 31.
Although it is technically possible for the government to be unable to spend or collect revenue on January 1, French law has safeguards in place to prevent a situation similar to the American government shutdown, where government activities come to a halt due to the lack of budget agreement. This scenario has never occurred in the history of the Fifth Republic.
How does the president choose the prime minister?
In theory, the president has the power to appoint the person of his choice as prime minister. He is under no legal obligation to choose a member of the largest group in the Assemblée Nationale. However, institutional logic does not allow him to override the opinion of the majority of MPs, since a government going against their wishes could quickly be toppled by a motion of no confidence. The president is therefore expected to choose a candidate likely to win the support of a majority of MPs or at least not to provoke the rejection of a majority of them.
Nothing would prevent Macron from renaming Barnier as prime minister.
What is a technocratic government?
If the situation remains deadlocked, the appointment of a "technocratic" government could be the way out. This would involve appointing non-partisan ministers to manage current affairs and implement certain consensual reforms, with the support of the various political blocs in the Assemblée on a case-by-case basis.
This type of configuration has occurred in Italy during various crises in the past, but it has never lasted very long. It would be difficult for such a government to maintain itself over the long term, given its lack of legitimacy at the ballot box. Moreover, this scenario would quickly come up against the difficulty of drawing up a new budget for 2025, at a time when the various political groups have already been struggling to reach a consensus on budget texts in recent weeks.
What is a caretaker government?
When a prime minister resigns but his successor has not yet been appointed, he and his ministers remain in office temporarily to manage current affairs, in other words to ensure the continuity of the state and its services and thus the essential day-to-day running of the administrations under their responsibility. "A minister who resigns is no longer really a minister but acts as one and can't do just anything. There are limits to his or her power," Benjamin Morel, a lecturer in public law at the University of Paris-Panthéon-Assas, told Le Monde in July 2024.
In principle, a caretaker government tasked with handling current affairs cannot take measures of a political nature: it cannot create new rights and duties for the population, take measures not already provided for by existing and enacted laws or make important appointments. However, it can implement laws that have already been voted.
The powers of a caretaker government are not restricted when it comes to urgent measures. With the government censured, this emergency exception could enable the Barnier government to propose a special bill by the end of the year. This bill would authorize the government to continue collecting existing taxes until the budget for the year is voted on.
When can the next dissolution of the Assemblée Nationale take place?
A return to the ballot box is generally seen as an option for clarifying or unblocking a tense political situation. However, in this case, this is not currently an option. Article 12 of the Constitution prohibits "a new dissolution within one year" of the previous election.
The Assemblée Nationale elected in July 2024 is therefore expected to sit until at least next summer. For public law professor Boudon, "the new dissolution could only take place, at best, on July 8, 2025, one year after the second round of the last legislative elections." This would mean putting the French to the vote at the end of July or mid-August, in the middle of the summer vacations.
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