As Ethiopia Seeks Sea Access, Egypt-Somalia Alliance Blooms

Tuesday September 17 2024

Somali people march against the Ethiopia-Somaliland port deal at the Yarisow stadium in Mogadishu, Somalia on January 3, 2024.

By TESFA-ALEM TEKLE

Deal for access to the ocean adds to the long-standing dispute over massive Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam that is still a sore point today

That the blossoming ties between Egypt and Somalia have put Ethiopia on the edge is an open secret. What is not known, for now, is how Ethiopia will upend its ties with these countries.

Some matters remain as they were. Ethiopian troops are still in Somalia, Ethiopian Airlines flies daily to Mogadishu and Addis Ababa has since cemented relationship with the military regime in Sudan, which is also close to Cairo.

But for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, the political audience back at home, and abroad, has meant he speaks firmly on his country’s desire to gain a sea access, insist on pursuing peace in the region, while calculating how to deal with an enemy that is now Somalia’s friend.

This week, Ethiopia marked its New Year, and also its National Sovereignty Day, and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, in televised address, said any county intending to invade Ethiopia must not only think once but 10 times.

Although he did not specify any country, his remarks come amid escalating tensions with Somalia and rival Egypt.

The friction with Somalia has been exacerbated by Ethiopia’s maritime agreement with Somaliland, a breakaway region that Somalia considers part of its territory.

As per sections of the deal, officials have commented on, Somaliland agreed to provide land locked Ethiopia access to its ports, in exchange Addis Ababa agreed to recognise Somaliland - becoming the first country to do so.

The actual deal, signed on January 2, has never been made public, although both Ethiopia and Somaliland say it exists.

Angered by the deal, Somalia condemned the maritime agreement saying as an act of “aggression.”

In reaction, Somalia has sought to bolster its military relationships, particularly with Egypt, to counter what it perceives as a threat.

Egypt’s long-standing dispute with Ethiopia over the construction of a major dam on the Nile has added to the fresh regional tensions. Ethiopia has since continued to fill the Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam (GERD) amid Egyptian protests.

Following a recent military agreement between Somalia and Egypt, the latter agreed to deploy troops to Somalia.

In the address on Ethiopia’s Sovereignty Day, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed reassured that Ethiopia seeks no conflict but warned potential aggressors to reconsider their intentions.

He emphasised Ethiopia’s readiness and capability to defend itself against any invasion, asserting that Ethiopians are adept at repelling such threats.

Tensions in the region intensified last month when two Egyptian Military C-130 planes arrived in Somalia’s capital, signaling strengthened ties between Egypt and Somalia.

Egypt is reportedly planning to send up to 10,000 soldiers to Somalia by the end of the year, with 5,000 joining a revamped African Union (AU) force and the other 5,000 deployed separately.

The AU force, now known as the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) has been active in Somalia since 2007 where it supports the government in combating the terrorist group al-Shabab.

Ethiopian troops are part of the AU force but are scheduled to withdraw next year when ATMIS mandate expires. The AU Mission is set to be re-hatted as the African Union Security Support Mission (AUSSOM). Egypt is the earliest to agree to send troops both under this new mission and under a bilateral arrangement.

Mr Metta-Alem sinishaw, a political analyst on the horn and East African region says Abiy’s recent warning sounds a rhetoric of Ethiopian government to reinvigorate Ethiopian nationalism against perceived foreign aggression.

“The speech intentionally avoided specifying any countries to avoid further escalation of the tension” he said adding it fell short of his ambition of access to the sea and building a naval base to project influence in the Red Sea.

“The core issue of contention that pushed Somalia to align with Egypt and escalated the unfolding tension is his untimely and unwitting agreement with Somaliland, not threats against Ethiopian sovereignty.”

Some critics argue Ethiopia’s once vibrant diplomacy has now turned into one of defensive approach.

“Defending a sovereignty needs prongs of domestic and regional approach: domestically, Ethiopia is in political, economic, and security crisis, and thus it needs comprehensive approach comprising at least national reconciliation, political stability, and economic growth,” Metta-Alem argued.

Regionally, the recent Egyptian-Somali military partnership confounds the underlying structural regional problem.

The UAE, at odds with Sudan is friends with both Egypt and Ethiopia. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Egypt worked together to establish, with other neighbouring countries, the Council of Arab and African Coastal States of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. That Council excluded UAE and Ethiopia, however.

Djibouti port link

Ethiopia traditionally imports almost everything through Djibouti Port. Last week, Djibouti offered the Tadjoura port exclusive to Ethiopia, in a bid to resolve the Somaliland impasse. But Addis Ababa has not responded to the offer. Two lessons emerged from it, according to Metta-Alem.

One is that relations between Addis Ababa and Djibouti may not be smooth, or that the Tadjoura port does not satisfy the reasons Addis Ababa wants a sea access to build a naval base, besides commercial reasons.

He argued the desire for sea access may not even be a home-grown policy as it costs lots of money to set up one port.

Meanwhile, Egypt has accused Ethiopia of jeopardising its water supply from the Nile due to the construction of the GERD). The GERD, which would be Africa’s largest hydroelectric project, is crucial for Ethiopia’s energy needs but has sparked significant tensions with Egypt, which relies heavily on the Nile for its water supply.

Ethiopia on Tuesday warned Egypt to abandon its “aggressive approach” over the Nile dam

Addis Ababa was responding to a letter Egypt recently sent to the UN Security Council in protest to Ethiopia’s continued dam filling which Cairo said breaches international law.

Concerned by perceived decline of the Nile water supply due to GERD, Egypt succeeded in isolating and encircling Ethiopia.